India inflation in March likely steady after four months of decline
Summary
Data due at 1030 GMT, April 14
BENGALURU, April 9 (Reuters) - India consumer prices likely rose around the same rate in March as they did in February following four months of declining inflation, as a sharp rise in gold prices offset flat food prices, a Reuters poll showed.
Food price rises had steadily moderated over the previous four months but likely bottomed in March as the country's farm industry experienced uneven rainfall and heat waves.
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The latest Reuters poll of 40 economists taken on April 3–8 showed inflation, as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (INCPIY=ECI), opens new tab, was 3.60% in March, roughly unchanged from 3.61% in February.
"We are expecting very flattish inflation for March," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank.
"Vegetable prices have come down, though the drop is less on a month-on-month basis than we have seen in January and February... (but) higher gold prices will likely limit the fall in core inflation."
Gold prices rose over 7% in March as investors sought a safe haven, bracing for U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs.
Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, was expected to have inched up to 4.1% year-on-year in March from February's estimated 3.9% to 4.0%.
However, with inflation well within the Reserve Bank of India's 2-6% target range the central bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday and again in August to support already slowing economic growth.
Meanwhile, warnings from the India Meteorological Department on country-wide heat waves have raised concerns about inflationary pressures.
"As weather turns less supportive, and temperatures rise during summer months, vegetable and fruit prices are expected to start climbing seasonally," wrote Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN Economic Research at BofA Global Research.
Forecasts for the inflation data, set to be released on April 14 at 1030 GMT, ranged from 3.2% to 3.9%.
Wholesale price index-based inflation likely rose to 2.50% in March from 2.38% in February, the survey showed.
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