Ukraine's war will be won by soldiers, not speeches

The Hill

2 days ago

In the old days, you turned on the television to get the news. If the antenna was properly connected, a presenter would deliver what the editors wanted you to hear.
Things have changed. Today, modern TVs let us switch quickly between bulletins, letting us cross-examine the news. Then there are mobile phones, tablets, laptops and dozens of social networks filled with statements from world leaders, analysts and bloggers.
So, do we really understand the true background of political confrontations any better than we did during the Vietnam War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? Are the motives of presidents and prime ministers more transparent?
How much can we trust the public words or social media posts of world leaders? They're often contradictory and inconsistent — politicians seem to forget what they said yesterday and rarely consider what they'll say tomorrow.
At least, that's how it looks from Ukraine.
Just days before Russia's full-scale invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied any plans to attack. In October 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called negotiations with Russia 'impossible'; by this May, he was waiting in Turkey for peace talks with Putin that never happened.
Donald Trump dismissed his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours as an 'exaggeration' and 'said in jest.' Such behavior from politicians has become the norm.
The European Union and United Kingdom issued theatrical warnings of tougher sanctions against Russia but mostly focused their 17th package on targeting 200 vessels from Moscow's so-called 'shadow fleet.'
I stopped reading official statements long ago — they lose meaning before reaching the media. But I had hoped personal talks might carry weight. That's why I awaited the Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Istanbul and the Trump-Putin call.
After a while, news broke that Trump had spoken with Putin.
What did they talk about? Reuters reported: peace in Ukraine. Period.
Trump called the tone 'excellent' and suggested the Pope as host. Putin muttered about a 'possible memorandum' and 'principles' of settlement. No dates, no names, no clauses — just fog.
That's when I realized I wouldn't look to leaders' speeches to understand when this war will end.
Before and after their talk, the front lines remained unchanged. Ukrainian defenders repel furious Russian attacks, losing lives but holding their spirit. Air raids continue. Russia recently launched its largest drone attack yet: 273 drones in one night.
For some time, Kyiv was quiet — a small miracle in the middle of the war. Early in the morning, well-rested and unusually relaxed, I saw a lone soldier hauling backpacks. He looked like he'd been carrying war on his back.
I offered to help him, and he accepted. As we loaded his things into the matte, gray-green pickup truck, I asked how things were, and he said simply, 'Bad. Bloody bad. But we'll win.'
His certainty stood in stark contrast to the endless political speculation by pundits reacting to Trump, Putin, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz or U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Or, should I say, it stays.
Analysts discuss in chorus, speculating endlessly — but can anyone see the full picture? Is there space for that soldier's quiet 'we'll win'?
Putin's position hasn't changed: He demands Russia's right to Crimea and four Ukrainian regions, insisting Ukraine enshrine annexations constitutionally. No negotiation without that. Washington has no leverage.
Zelensky, boxed in by Trump's biased arbitration, must accept capitulation — or not. But even if he wanted to, most Ukrainians would reject such a deal. The nation might let go of Crimea and Donbas, lost earlier, but yielding newly occupied regions is a red line.
That's why Trump's negotiations are dead on arrival. Pressuring Zelensky is futile. Trump won't or can't pressure Putin.
Trump's threat to cut military aid won't change Ukraine's course. The country won't surrender or collapse; it will bleed more, adding to the 'millions of people dead' Trump claims to mourn.
A Ukrainian defeat would devastate Ukraine and deal a fatal blow to Trump's credibility.
Speculation that Trump might convince Europe to abandon Zelensky is hollow. Europe, left to fend for itself, stands firm, preparing to turn Ukraine into a fortress — a 'steel hedgehog' that no enemy can digest, as Ursula von der Leyen once said.
Neither Britain, France, Germany, nor any major power will step back.
The war goes on.
America's modest arms deliveries continue; Europe slowly scales up military support.
The status quo is locked. Russia lacks the strength to break through; Ukraine can't afford to retreat. Trump cannot abandon either side, not after his loud declarations. This deadlock will hold unless one side gains overwhelming strength.
Many analysts say time favors Russia: more manpower, weapons and economy. But Ukrainian soldiers see it differently: 'We'll win.'
Why do I believe them, despite logic, exhaustion and despair? Because their conviction echoes the resolve of most Ukrainians, including me.
We have no right to capitulate. Too many refuse to live ashamed of losing this war. It began as a fierce defense of our land against brutal aggression. It has become a test of endurance, demanding every last reserve of strength, costing hundreds of thousands of lives. It cannot end in disgrace, surrendered ground and raised hands.
That's what Trump and Putin don't understand. They see Zelensky as a stubborn obstacle but don't see the millions behind him ready to fight until the enemy bleeds out.
With or without Western support, this disgraceful ending will not happen in Ukraine.
Kyiv didn't fall in two weeks in 2022 — not because Putin's tanks got 'stuck in the mud,' as Trump says, but because of Ukrainian strategy and heroism.
Peace didn't come in 24 hours, didn't come from Istanbul negotiations and won't come from phone calls between Washington and Moscow. The war won't end because the White House calls it a 'bloodbath' or the Kremlin says 'Russia is for a peaceful settlement.'
War's winners and losers are decided on the battlefield. More than three years in, what do we see? Russia, which Trump falsely called '20 times' the size of Ukraine, spends months taking yards of ground, littering the soil with corpses.
Yes, numbers matter, but conviction matters more. There was unwavering conviction in that soldier's words. That's why I believe him and not politicians who imagine they hold all the cards.
The battlefield is not a gaming table. The real winner will wear military camouflage, sweaty and bloody, with the yellow and blue emblem of Ukraine, existing as long as soldiers believe in victory.
Sergey Maidukov is a Ukrainian author with a particular focus on cultural and political dynamics in post-Soviet space.