Soldiers deployed to quell Los Angeles riots
Isabella Higgins: Good morning. Welcome to AM. It's Monday the 9th of June. I'm Isabella Higgins coming to you from Gadigal Land in Sydney. Hundreds of soldiers are on the streets of Los Angeles where riot police and demonstrators have clashed after the arrest of suspected illegal immigrants. Trump administration officials say their deployment is necessary to maintain and ensure law and order but California's governor says the move could escalate tensions. America's editor John Lyons is in Washington. John, what's the latest with this deployment?
John Lyons: Isabella, at the moment it's relatively calm. President Trump has ordered those 2,000 National Guard into Los Angeles following two days of protests over the illegal immigration rounding up of people allegedly who are overstaying their visas or are in America illegally. Now Pete Hegseth, the Defence Secretary, has said that he has Marines also on standby. There is some sense though from some of the authorities in California that this is much of an overreaction, that this could have been handled by the Los Angeles Police Department but so far while there are crowds and some protests at the moment the National Guard are standing around various places in Los Angeles and things are relatively calm.
Isabella Higgins: John, the deployment of the National Guard is rare. How are Americans reacting?
John Lyons: Look, I think that those Americans who support President Trump and this was one of his signature election campaign promises of course was illegal immigrants. His base, his supporters think it's excellent. They like to see this sort of tough action. Those who are not supporters of his worry about the civil liberties implications. It's interesting that usually the National Guard are deployed in America at the request of a governor. What makes this particularly different and in a way quite dangerous is that it's believed to be the first time since 1965 when President Lyndon Johnson ordered National Guard into the streets of Alabama that a president has deployed National Guard against the wishes of the governor. The California Governor Gavin Newsom, who President Trump routinely and provocatively calls Gavin New Scum, has said that he doesn't think the National Guard should be deployed, that it is an inflammatory move by the president.
Isabella Higgins: John Lyons in Washington. The co-author of a strategic review into Australia's defence capability says the federal government risks angering Donald Trump if he doesn't convince the US it's doing enough to increase the defence budget. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is facing pressure to boost defence spending as he prepares to head to the United States after the Trump administration insisted Australia should lift its spending to 3.5 per cent of its gross domestic product. But the government is pushing back, saying it's doing enough already. Isobel Roe reports.
Isobel Roe: Donald Trump claims America's allies rely too much on them and aren't prepared to sufficiently fund their own defence programs. Looking at the numbers, some experts think that point is worth considering.
Peter Dean: Pretty much since the end of the Vietnam War there's been a steady trajectory for Australian defence spending going backwards and going down.
Isobel Roe: Professor Peter Dean from the United States Studies Centre was the co-lead of the Australian Strategic Defence Review, a document produced in 2023, which recommended the government substantially increase the defence budget.
Peter Dean: It's started to rise recently with the investments of the Albanese government and the previous governments but it's still on a very slow trajectory.
Isobel Roe: Defence spending is back in the spotlight after the election, following a request from the US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth last week for Australia to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of Australia's gross domestic product, or GDP. Anthony Albanese may come face to face with some of that pressure if he meets with US President Donald Trump at the G7 summit next week. On Sky News, Trade Minister Don Farrell maintained the government's line that it won't have its defence policy dictated to it by Washington.
Don Farrell: All of our defence capabilities are as strong as they can be and as strong as they need to be. We're focused on what Australia needs to do and we'll make our decisions based on what is in our national interest.
Isobel Roe: What Australia spends on defence has emerged as a policy difference between the government and the opposition. Shadow Finance Minister James Paterson told the ABC on Sunday the coalition's election commitment of 3 per cent still stands.
James Paterson: In the last five weeks, I don't know about you, but I don't think the world has become a much safer place. So we are committed to reaching that 3 per cent of GDP target.
Isobel Roe: And members of the defence establishment here in Australia think 3 per cent of GDP is a price worth paying for defence. One of them is Professor Peter Dean.
Peter Dean: I think what 3 per cent is, is a guideline for the amount of money that's needed in an initial investment. The Prime Minister is correct, we should figure out the capabilities we need and fund them appropriately.
Isobel Roe: As for the US's demands of 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence, how does Anthony Albanese stand up to Donald Trump while keeping Australia's military alliance with the US strong?
Peter Dean: It's become a proxy for allies and partners to make comparisons about that relative investment that each country makes into its own sovereign defence capabilities.
Isobel Roe: What does Australia risk by not doing what the US recommends?
Peter Dean: The US has long had a bipartisan position going back decades that its allies and partners such as NATO, Australia and others, should spend more money on defence. But I think the risk we have to take into account, that is that Donald Trump's behaviour for instance towards NATO and its European allies may well be replicated towards Australia.
Isabella Higgins: United States Studies Centre Professor Peter Dean ending that report from Isobel Roe. A former Prime Minister, a top film director and leaders in science are among the more than 800 Australians being recognised in today's King's Birthday Honours list. Many of the recipients have spent decades of their life working to improve their communities or to help give those less fortunate a leg up. Gavin Coote reports.
Scott Morrison: I have always believed in miracles.
Gavin Coote: After winning an election he'd been projected to lose, Scott Morrison went on to lead Australia through a generation-defining pandemic and economic downturn. The former Prime Minister is today being appointed a Companion of the Order of Australia, or AC, for eminent service to Australia and Parliament and his leadership of the national COVID-19 response.
Scott Morrison: We were hit with pretty much every crisis you could imagine, from natural disasters to a global pandemic once in a hundred years, and of course the threats we faced in our region and a recession caused by that global pandemic. And through all of this Australians were just incredible.
Gavin Coote: There's a total of 830 people on the Honours list, including some big names in entertainment and the arts.
Movie clip: All you need is love. Love is just a game.
Gavin Coote: Baz Luhrmann, the famed director behind the films Moulin Rouge and Strictly Ballroom, and his wife, costume designer Catherine Martin, are both being appointed an AC for eminent service to the arts and the development of artistic talent. Businesswoman and feminist leader Wendy McCarthy is also being appointed an AC and says she's proud of her achievements in advocating for women.
Wendy McCarthy: But if I had to pull out the most significant, it would be leading the reproductive rights campaign in New South Wales and to take, with my friends and colleagues, abortion off the criminal code after 80 years is for me one of the most fantastic things to be engaged in.
Gavin Coote: Another AC appointee is former broadcaster Phillip Adams, who hosted Late Night Live on Radio National for more than 30 years after a career in film and advertising.
Phillip Adams: But I've headed oodles of government bodies like the Australian Film Commission, then of course journalism, books. So, yes, I've been a busy little lad since I left school at 15.
Gavin Coote: The honours list includes many who've dedicated their life's work to tackling complex challenges and improving society. Former ABC journalist Matt Peacock, who died in October last year, is being posthumously appointed a Member of the Order of Australia, or AM, for his work in the media, which included decades of reporting on the health impacts of asbestos. And Distinguished Professor Vasso Apostolopoulos is being appointed an AM for her pioneering work in developing treatments for cancer and other diseases.
Vasso Apostolopoulos: Over the years I've wondered, you know, what do you have to do to achieve these awards? These people must be amazing that receive these awards and there I am today being named as one of the recipients. So it was very unexpected and it's very exciting.
Gavin Coote: Also being appointed an AM is Bronwen Dalton, an academic and the founder of the charity Ruff Sleepers, a service that washes the dogs of homeless people, while also advocating for improved housing options for homeless people with pets. She says it's been a privilege to work right across the not-for-profit sector.
Bronwen Dalton: I was working with the sex workers, I've worked with undocumented migrants, Indigenous groups, North Korean women, they're pretty high on the oppressed scale as well.
Gavin Coote: And there are more than two dozen recipients who are being honoured for their service in Indigenous communities, including Bangerang-Wiradjuri Elder Aunty Geraldine Atkinson and prominent NT advocate Olga Havnen.
Isabella Higgins: Gavin Coote with that report. Israel's Defence Minister has issued a warning to the crew of an aid ship trying to sail to Gaza, turn back now or face the force of the Israeli military. The Madleen set off from Italy a week ago, crewed by humanitarian activists including Greta Thunberg, and is trying to deliver supplies to the war-ravaged territory. Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran is in Jerusalem. Matthew, where is the ship now?
Matthew Doran: Isabella, good morning. The ship is off the coast of Egypt in the Mediterranean, about 150 to 170 nautical miles off the coast of Gaza. It's been en route since last week when the ship run by the Freedom Flotilla set off from Sicily. And while the discussion around how Israel would respond to the voyage has been simmering away for a few days now, as it gets closer to Gaza, the rhetoric from Israeli authorities is certainly sharpening. We've heard from Israel Katz, the country's Defence Minister. He's firing a warning shot on social media a couple of hours ago. Alongside a photo of him sitting down with Israeli defence officials, Mr Katz announced he'd instructed the IDF to use whatever means necessary to stop the ship reaching Gaza. And he singled out the activist Greta Thunberg who was on board, labelling her as anti-Semitic, saying she was a Hamas supporter, along with the other members of the crew, and that the ship should turn around. Now, Greta Thunberg has knocked back the claim that she is anti-Semitic. She has returned serve on her own social media accounts, saying that the voyage is not about her, it's not about the crew or the ship. It is, in her own words, about highlighting Israel's genocide in Gaza, an accusation the country has repeatedly rejected. Now, the Freedom Flotilla had charted another ship, which a couple of weeks ago was hit by what the crew said was an Israeli drone attack. Israel hasn't commented on that. But back in 2010, Israeli commandos intercepted another ship bound for Gaza with some aid on board and 10 people died. And that's why there's a lot of focus on what's going on here. We're seeing in the Israeli media reports that the military plans to intercept the ship, take it to Ashdod Port north of Gaza, and then arrest and deport the crew. And earlier today, one of the crew, Brazilian activist Tiago Avila, he posted on his Instagram account a video where he said that Israeli forces were already trying to scramble the ship's GPS signal.
Thiago Avila: And we just received some very weird news. That according to our tracker we are no longer 162 nautical miles from Gaza - which is where we are - but according to him that we are at Jordan Airport. And we know what that means, when they start jamming our communication, when they start messing with our devices, it means they are preparing for an interception. Or an attack.
Isabella Higgins: That was Tiago Avila on board the aid ship. And Matthew, the aid situation in Gaza is what has prompted this voyage. What's the latest on how the population is accessing supplies?
Matthew Doran: Well, Isabella, the situation on the ground remains incredibly dire. There's been another wave of shootings nearby. One of the aid sites in southern Gaza, another four people killed and dozens more injured, according to local health authorities. This follows a series of attacks last week, which has fuelled a sense of chaos around these sites. The IDF blaming Hamas for that, but also conceding firing warning shots at Palestinians approaching some of these aid sites. And then Hamas and Palestinians accessing their aid, accusing Israel of firing upon desperate people just trying to get their hands on some food there. Israel is insisting that enough aid is entering the strip through those distribution sites and also through trucks making deliveries. There are 350 which have crossed the border in the last week or so. But humanitarians say it's just a drop in the ocean compared to what's really required to solve the crisis, Isabella.
Isabella Higgins: Matthew Doran in Jerusalem. After a tense weekend in Ukraine, Russia says its forces have made gains in both the east and northeast of the country. In recent days, the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv have come under intense air attacks, some of the most powerful during the war. Tim Swanston reports from London.
Tim Swanston: Following an intense missile and drone barrage in Kharkiv on Saturday, emergency crews worked frantically to clear rubble and find survivors in a nine-storey residential building. The city in eastern Ukraine is being hit regularly as the war escalates. But this weekend's bombing, which killed at least four, has been described by the city's mayor, Ihor Terekhov, as the most powerful attack since the start of the war. Just a day earlier, Russia launched a massive strike on Kyiv and cities in Ukraine's west. Ukrainian officials said more than 400 drones and more than 40 missiles were used in the intense attack. Three first responders were killed. These significant aerial attacks come as Russia makes territorial gains within Ukraine. Moscow says its forces have reached the western frontier of Ukraine's Donetsk region in the country's east and are making gains near Sumy in the northeast, a region Ukraine had reclaimed in 2022. Ukraine's military says Russia's forces are building a position for an attack on an important logistical hub for the Ukrainian army. Professor Vlad Mykhnenko from the University of Oxford says Russia is pushing hard early in a summer offensive.
Vlad Mykhnenko: I think the Russian summer offensive will continue until about October. They might have some gains. They will probably occupy one or two settlements in the Donetsk Oblast. Perhaps they will take a few villages in other provinces. They will definitely terrorise Sumy and Kherson and their civilians with large drone attacks. They will definitely terrorise Ukrainian cities with drone attacks.
Tim Swanston: According to pro-Ukrainian open source maps, Russia now controls almost one fifth of Ukrainian territory. Talks last week in Istanbul yielded very little, except for an exchange of prisoners of war and bodies. Amid the escalation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv is planning more operations, like its strike on Russian airbases last weekend that destroyed part of Moscow's strategic bomber fleet.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: We have to prepare such plans and we are not stopping. We have to prepare such plans because Russia can't, because we don't know, we don't really know if they will stop this war. They don't want, they don't want to stop the war.
Tim Swanston: US officials say they believe Russia's retaliation has not begun yet in earnest and will likely be a significant multi-pronged strike. Further peace talks are expected later this month in the shadow of this bloody escalation and likely months of intensified fighting. This is Tim Swanston in London reporting for AM. Queensland's tropical island resorts were once the playgrounds of the rich and famous, but now many are falling into ruin. The state government is moving to take back control from owners who have neglected their valuable tourism assets. National tourism reporter Kristy Sexton-McGrath reports.
Kristy Sexton-McGrath: Queensland's island resorts were once the ultimate getaway, jewels in the state's tourism crown, but today many lie crumbling, overgrown and forgotten. Premier David Crisafulli says the decline can't continue. He's issued a stern warning to owners to either invest or lose their leases.
David Crisafulli: It's pretty simple. They are assets that belong to the people of Queensland. They're a Queensland asset and I'm just not comfortable that in many cases international corporations come in, buy the rights, sit on it and just see an appreciation in its value without doing anything for Queenslanders.
Kristy Sexton-McGrath: At the top of the government's list is Double Island near Cairns, once a celebrity hideaway. Now buildings are collapsing, pools clogged with sludge and weeds have taken over. Last year the Queensland government stripped the Hong Kong owner of the lease, converted the land to freehold and recently launched a lengthy expression of interest process to find the right buyer. The ABC understands more than 30 parties have shown interest, but the government wants someone with the funds and commitment to properly revive the island. Further south, Keswick Island off Mackay has long faced stall development and restricted public access, frustrating residents like Adrian Hayne.
Adrian Hayne: This goes back probably more than 20 years. Based on a grand master plan that was released back in the 90s, a lot of people had bought land on the island with the promise that they would develop the island. There was supposed to be a marina, a jetty, resorts. Since then I think we've had four separate head leases take over the island and four failures.
Kristy Sexton-McGrath: Island broker Hayley Manville says the interest in Queensland's tropical islands has never been higher.
Hayley Manville: Billionaires, multi-millionaires, they're looking for some kind of tourism investment, but then you also have mixed interest from different groups like not-for-profit, be it wellness or a facility for rehabilitation. You get a lot of con artists.
Kristy Sexton-McGrath: Businessman Christopher Morris, who's invested tens of millions of dollars reviving run-down resorts in North Queensland, say island ownership is no easy ride. He purchased Orpheus Island and then Pelorus Island off Townsville more than a decade ago and spent tens of millions of dollars redeveloping them. He agrees with the government's crackdown on shonky leaseholders but says not all islands are suited to resort development.
Christopher Morris: There's some islands that basically should just stay national parks, right, and people can go and walk there and everything else can't, but there's a limit to how many islands you can support.
Isabella Higgins: Businessman Christopher Morris ending that report by Kristy Sexton-McGrath. And that's AM for today. Thanks for your company. I'm Isabella Higgins.
Sam Hawley: Hi, it's Sam Hawley here, host of the ABC News Daily podcast. Woodside is on a winning ticket. It's had the life of its massive gas project in Western Australia extended by 40 years. Today, Joe Lauder from the ABC's climate team on why the Albanese government has approved the extension, even though we're meant to be going renewal. Look for the ABC News Daily podcast on the ABC Listen app.
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Late February, I think that was the last day of February, President Trump was pursuing a policy which, at least for several weeks, was not based upon the realistic recognition of what Putin was trying to do. And he kind of assumed that the glad words he was hearing from Putin over the phone reflected a desire to make peace as opposed to a desire to keep Trump on the sidelines as Putin tried to take over Ukraine. And if you go back and look, starting in the middle of March, so two and a half weeks after that unfortunate meeting, the Russians began their first refusals to various Trump ceasefire proposals, which Ukraine accepted. And we began to see Trump express frustration with the Russians, starting in May, and that frustration grew since May. Sam Hawley: Well, during this meeting, just to note that Zelenskyy had abandoned his military outfit, of course, which he's worn in solidarity with the soldiers in Ukraine. Reporter: You look fabulous in that suit. Donald Trump, US President: I said the same thing. Reporter: Yeah, you look good. Donald Trump, US President: I said the same thing. Reporter: Yeah, it's good on you. John Herbst: If you look at his outfit, it is a suit, but it looks very similar to the attire before. Sam Hawley: It's still black. John Herbst: So I'd consider that to be an interesting compromise. Sam Hawley: Yeah, but Trump would have liked that, wouldn't he? That he was wearing a suit this time. He likes the optics. John Herbst: But look, look, that was always a tertiary, if even a tertiary issue. Sam Hawley: Yeah, of course. John Herbst: It reflected Trump's desire to put pressure on Zelenskyy and nothing more. Sam Hawley: All right, well, apparently this is a really interesting part of this meeting. Trump got up and he went out and he called Vladimir Putin to discuss, in part, a meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin and then another meeting, a trilateral meeting, where Trump would also be President Zelenskyy was actually asked about this during a press conference afterwards. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President: We will see that the result of bilateral and then it can be the trilateral. So I said always so Ukraine will never stop on the way to peace. Sam Hawley: What do you think of that? Those meetings, are they actually a viable thing? Will they happen? John Herbst: Well, they are a sensible next step or next steps. But I agree with you, it's not clear that Putin will actually do this. He's been avoiding or evading Zelenskyy literally once he decided six or 12 months in Zelenskyy's term as president, that Zelenskyy was not going to submit to Putin's desires in Ukraine. Sam Hawley: So you think it's unlikely that Putin will show up? John Herbst: Well, I'm not going to say unlikely. I would say it's not certain that he will show up. That's a safe thing to say. You know, I put the odds at something less than 50 percent, but not at two percent. Sam Hawley: All right, well, a must, of course, for Zelenskyy going into this meeting and the European leaders was security guarantees that America would come to Ukraine's defence if Russia agreed to a peace deal, but later attacked Ukraine again. John Herbst: Well, point of fact, I would say that was easily the most important thing we've seen over the past 24 hours. And it was it was actually, you might say, anticipated by Trump's statement on the plane to Alaska that, you know, security guarantees may be something that's necessary. First time we've heard anything like that from President Trump. And then, you know, a more forward leaning position today. Donald Trump, US President: There'll be a lot of there'll be a lot of help when it comes to security. There's going to be a lot of help. It's going to be good. They are first line of defence because they're there, they're Europe, But we're going to help them out also. We'll be involved. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President:: It is important that the United States makes a clear signal that they will be among the countries that will help to coordinate and also will participate in security guarantees for Ukraine. I believe this is a big step forward. John Herbst: So that to me is a great positive. But of course, the Russians had regularly rejected the notion that European troops would appear in Ukraine. They rejected that again today. You know, that was a clear, important element that was and remains a clear, important element in security for Ukraine. Sam Hawley: In fact, the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, he told Fox News after the meeting that troops on the ground weren't even discussed. Reporter: Troops on the ground. Is that a possibility? Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General: We have not discussed that at all today. So that will be part of the discussions which will now start. We will try to bring them to a next stage of understanding over the coming days and weeks, of course. I'm not sure that we can solve all the details. Sam Hawley: Is that surprising? John Herbst: That is surprising. I'm not certain what to make of it, but it's conceivable they could have talked about about this without actually getting into that detail. Sam Hawley: And the so-called coalition of the willing, that includes the UK and France and others, they're suggesting that they could deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a security guarantee. That really angers Putin, doesn't it? The idea of Western foreign troops on the ground in Ukraine. John Herbst: That's correct, because Putin's aim remains to take effective political control of the country, which means either changing the government or seizing 70 percent or 80 percent of the country, including all the cities alone, the Dnipro River, including the Black Sea coast and leaving a rump Ukraine in the West. Sam Hawley: So what is the security guarantee for Ukraine if it doesn't involve troops? What would we be looking at? John Herbst: Well, that's that's hard to imagine. I mean, there are things that could be done, making sure that that the air is controlled by Western forces with Ukraine were able to shoot at Russian troops on the ground if they go beyond certain points, but that nothing can substitute ultimately for having some force on the ground. Sam Hawley: Well, of course, Putin has long been opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. I mean, they've been discussing Article five, you know, NATO's treaty, Article five. What does that all mean? Just explain that. John Herbst: Well, I mean, Article five is the portion of the NATO charter, which says if one country is attacked, all countries will play a role in its defence. So an Article five is the reason why everyone wants to join NATO. So if you provide if you truly provide Article five type guarantees to Ukraine, that is a huge deterrence to further Russian aggression. And that is the ne plus ultra of security guarantees. That's why I say this is that's clearly the most important elements that's emerged over the past day or so. Sam Hawley: Well, on the ground in Ukraine, John, it seems locals and officials are pretty sceptical about these talks. What have you been hearing? What have people been telling you, people you know in Ukraine? John Herbst: I know that many Ukrainians were deeply concerned after the summit in Anchorage. I believe that they are encouraged by what happened between Zelenskyy and Trump with all the other European leaders. But encouraged is not the same as saying confident, because we've seen before President Trump move from one direction to another and sometimes relatively quickly. So the question is, are the good things that were spoken today an indication of where the process and President Trump will be a week or two weeks from now? So that that remains a question. Sam Hawley: But what does it say that just before the meeting began, Russia was attacking major Ukrainian cities, killing at least 10 people, including a child? John Herbst: Well, it means that their effort to bomb Ukraine into submission continues. And I think that's the reason to be concerned about President Trump allowing Putin to cross his deadline without consequences. Sam Hawley: All right. What about those people, John, living in the regions that Putin wants to hold in Ukraine? What happens to them if he succeeds in this? John Herbst: There's no question that that's a disaster for them. And that's why Trump's goal, in my opinion, is to achieve a durable peace. And I think that's a good enough outcome. But it includes the tragic element that you are consigning Ukrainians to live under dreadful Russian oppression. That's why I would not call it a just peace, but a durable peace. You know, international relations can be pretty rough. Sometimes people accept a durable peace as opposed to a just peace, because that's the best that they can achieve. Sam Hawley: So do you think this peace can actually be achieved? Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire. So negotiations before a peace deal. Putin doesn't want that. He wants to skip a ceasefire and just come up with the plan where Ukraine gives up land to Russia. And Zelenskyy has always said he's not going to do that. So where's the peace deal here? John Herbst: Well, Zelenskyy has often, I won't say always, but often going back to even before Trump took office, after he won the election, he has often demonstrated a willingness to make territorial concessions on a de facto basis in exchange for security guarantees. And this has always been kind of not the specific security guarantees, but security measures plus territorial compromise has always been the Trump approach, always meaning for the last eight or nine months going back before our elections. So everything we're hearing today has actually been discussed in some fashion in the past. But the key, in my opinion, has been even Trump's goal of a durable peace is in doubt because Putin doesn't want a durable peace. Putin wants control of Ukraine. So that means we ultimately have to put serious pressure on the Kremlin to demonstrate they're not going to get ultimate control of Ukraine. Sam Hawley: All right, well, John, we know Donald Trump wants to end the war. He likely does, of course, want to see the end to all the bloodshed, but he also wants a Nobel Peace Prize, right? Do you think he can achieve this aim to end this war? John Herbst: If he uses all the powers at his control, he can achieve a durable peace by making life miserable for an aggressive Kremlin. In other words, if he begins to put the serious pressure on Putin he's talked about, you know, major, major advanced weapons heading to Ukraine, paid for by someone else, not us, tougher economic sanctions on Russia and its trading partners, Putin would be in serious trouble. Now, these things would not bring the result we need in two months or four months. Putin has wagered successfully so far on outlasting all the Western leaders who've opposed his war on Ukraine going back 11 years. So Trump would have to demonstrate a willingness to persevere, certainly for seven or eight months, maybe for well over a year. But the cost to us of doing that is tiny. The cost to the Russians is enormous. Sam Hawley: All right. And what about the people of Ukraine, John? You know them. Do you think they should have some hope now? John Herbst: I think that they should not give up hope. I think that if Trump truly wants a durable peace, and I think he does, and if he truly wants a Nobel Peace Prize, and I think he does, he will have to move in this direction. It's coming much more slowly than I would like, but it may well come. Now, notice I'm even here a little bit tentative, but I think ultimately the different factors at play will move him in that direction. Sam Hawley: John Herbst is a former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.
