How the House GOP Passed Trump's ‘Big, Beautiful Bill' - CNN Political Briefing - Podcast on CNN Audio

CNN

23-05-2025

David Chalian
00:00:01
Hey everyone, I'm David Chalian, CNN's Washington Bureau Chief and Political Director, and welcome to the CNN Political Briefing.
Mike Johnson (clip)
00:00:09
We stand ready to continue our work together to deliver on the one big, beautiful bill, as President Trump named it himself. We're going to send that to his desk. We're gonna get it there by Independence Day on July 4th, and we are going to celebrate a new golden age in America.
David Chalian
00:00:25
'House Speaker Mike Johnson delivered a major win for President Trump this week. Despite deep divisions and disagreements, the House GOP passed Trump's so-called "big, beautiful bill" early Thursday morning. It was passed, as expected, by a razor thin margin. The final vote? 215 to 214. The bill makes permanent the tax cuts passed during Trump's first presidency and cuts spending for Medicaid and food stamps. So how did this bill get across the finish line in the House? What got the GOP holdouts to agree to vote for it? And what can we expect to happen when this bill goes to the United States Senate? To help me answer all of these questions and more, I'm joined by CNN congressional correspondent Lauren Fox. She's been on Capitol Hill covering this marathon of a week of legislating, and I am thrilled she's joining us now. Lauren, thanks so much for being here. Really appreciate it.
Lauren Fox
00:01:23
Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
David Chalian
00:01:25
So we're speaking on Thursday afternoon, and this morning around 7 a.m. Eastern time, the House accomplished what may be its most monumental task of the year, if not the whole Congress, this Congress, but Speaker Mike Johnson obviously scored an enormous victory by delivering this narrow majority on the President's agenda with the big, beautiful bill. I just want you to take me through, if you could, these last 72 hours or so and how the speaker achieved this victory.
Lauren Fox
00:01:59
'Yeah, I don't think we can underestimate what a huge moment this is for Mike Johnson, in part because I think there were members in his own conference who didn't think that this was going to happen by the Memorial Day recess. I mean, I know senators were certainly voicing skepticism. And then just 24 hours before this bill actually passed, there was a group of House Freedom Caucus members in the Rayburn Room, basically arguing we could do this in a week or two weeks, but we're not going to be ready to do this in the next 24 hours. And then fast forward, they pass the bill, and Speaker Johnson is standing there with all his committee chairmen in the exact same room less than 24 hours later, declaring victory over this huge moment. And I don't even think you have to go back 72 hours. You can just go back 24 hours and look at what a massive shift started to occur. I think a couple of things were happening behind the scenes. I think Donald Trump's impact on this bill can't be underestimated. The fact that members don't want to disappoint him, the fact that the Freedom Caucus went over to the White House late yesterday, and the president made clear, according to reporting from our colleague Jeff Zeleny, that this was a priority, that he was not going to be afraid to call them out if they didn't go ahead and support it. And I think that that did weigh on these members, because their base is the MAGA base. And then I think the fact that Mike Johnson is such a different speaker than we've seen. You know, in some ways we forget that he's still semi-new at this job. He's still kind of new at corralling such a diverse conference. But I was talking to Richard Hudson, who is the chairman of the NRCC, the campaign arm for the House of Republicans, and I was asking him to sort of take me behind the scenes, like, what's Johnson like in these meetings? And he said, he's so incredibly patient, comparing him to Job, obviously, a character from the Bible. And he was saying, you know, it's kind of remarkable. He just never loses his cool. And he's said, I have been part of negotiations with McCarthy, with Boehner, with Paul Ryan. And it is so different than any other speaker I've seen. And I just, I say that because he is really calm, and he doesn't seem to hit a point where he's going to cross a line with a member, irritate them to the point that they're gonna vote no just to spite him, and I do think that that cannot be underestimated in Washington.
David Chalian
00:04:23
'Now maybe I'm being naive, and you could tell me so, that's fine, but I kind of bought into Speaker Johnson's message from the get-go, which is that failure was not an option. I mean, this is, this really was the singular piece of legislative work that Trump was looking for in this term. And it is at the very definition of being a Republican. I mean, the tax cuts, this is the stuff that drives them, the border. So this is stuff that they, their raison d'être. You know, so that to me, combined with the reality that if indeed they weren't able to get this done, that that would be such a massive blow politically out of the gate here for Trump in his second term. So all of that it just seemed like they were going to get to yes. Am I being naive? Was this really in danger of falling apart?
Lauren Fox
00:05:20
I always thought they were gonna get to yes. I don't know if I thought they were gonna to get to yes this week. I think I'm still a little bit surprised by that reality, but you're not wrong that you couldn't get to the end of the year and let Donald Trump's 2017 tax bill completely expire. That just really wasn't going to be palatable.
David Chalian
00:05:39
When taxes would go up on Americans, like 68% of Americans, I think would see a tax increase if that happened.
Lauren Fox
00:05:44
'Exactly. And like, yes, there are so many pieces of the tax bill that go to higher income Americans, but there are also things that everyday middle-class Americans depend on when you're talking about the standard deduction and other items in that tax bill, that they really were going to potentially face backlash from their constituents. Not to forget about the fact that the debt limit, increasing the debt limit, is also a part of this bill. And that deadline is coming up likely at the end of the summer. Obviously, that number can shift, and the date can shift, but that's also really...
David Chalian
00:06:17
It also may shift whether it stays in the bill or not, perhaps.
Lauren Fox
00:06:20
That is true. That is true, because the House is just one part of this.
David Chalian
00:06:23
Now that it is through the House and you look ahead to the Senate, again, I will say my sort of bias is success is far more likely than failure in the Senate, that something's going to get to the president's desk here for him to sign. But I don't want to prejudge it. I'm not suggesting there's not going to be a ton of hurdles, a lot of legislative drama and back and forth. But can you give us a sense of A, what are the biggest pitfalls now as you move towards the Senate in this process and B, how closely aligned was Thune with Johnson through this process so that the Senate process was actually also underway right now with these House negotiations?
Lauren Fox
00:07:02
There are some big differences between what House Republicans are looking at and what Senate Republicans are looking at. But if you talk to Johnson, he really does want to make this at least appear like he and John Thune, the majority leader in the Senate, are working hand in glove. And he actually brought up a really interesting anecdote last night that there was a member on the fence who wanted assurances from the Senate. And he basically got John Thune on the phone to give those assurancess before this person was willing to move forward. Now he wouldn't say who that person was, but I thought that that was...
David Chalian
00:07:34
You anticipated my next question.
Lauren Fox
00:07:36
I know, I could tell. But I thought that it was a really illustrative moment because it sort of shows Johnson does not want this to feel like it's House versus Senate. That is just not a position that he wants them to be in. And he went to the Republican Senate lunch the other day to sort of make the case. Okay, guys, remember, you're gonna get to choose what happens with this bill over here. This is your chamber, but this is a carefully negotiated bill between my conservatives and my swing district Republicans, and we are gonna have to be very careful and closely coordinated before we make any substantial changes.
David Chalian
00:08:13
Which is, of course, why Johnson wanted and ultimately won the battle for the big one, beautiful bill, that it all had to be in together. That's the only way he felt he was gonna be able to piece together and knit together that winning coalition here. And by the way, when I say winning, I mean 215 to 214. I think the vote outcome proves Johnson's point that he needed this whole thing to be one thing. To have that kind of success. Remind us, how many votes could he lose in this process?
Lauren Fox
00:08:48
He could lose no more than three Republican votes.
David Chalian
00:08:49
And he lost two, right?
Lauren Fox
00:08:51
And he had one voting present. And then he had 1 representative who he said at his press conference fell asleep and therefore did not make it in time for the vote. And that was sort of this very funny moment. He kind of called out Representative Garbarino about, you know, being not present for the vote, and he was like, that was going to be a yes vote for sure. But it just shows you sort of the tension he's under. He was kind of joking, like, you know, he's a good friend, but I really could and strangle him in that moment.
David Chalian
00:09:18
And Garbarino was one of the ones fighting on SALT, on the state and local tax deduction, from New York. Although of those New York members, his district out on Long Island, I think it's like an R plus six district. I think Trump won it by 13 points or so. So this was not necessarily a truly vulnerable or not one of most vulnerable Republicans, and yet he fell asleep on the job and didn't even cast the vote.
Lauren Fox
00:09:39
Yes, exactly.
David Chalian
00:09:41
So what does the new timeline look like? You mentioned the debt ceiling piece of this. You know, if Johnson promised this would be done in his chamber by Memorial Day, is Thune promising this is done by July 4th recess?
Lauren Fox
00:09:52
Well, don't worry. The Speaker of the House is already promising that this is going to be done by the July 4th recess. And, you know, senators love to be told by the House of Representatives what exactly their timeline looks like. It's really incredible, though, in part because I was talking to Josh Hawley today. He's a Republican who has expressed some concerns about the direction of the house bill at various times, especially on when it comes to Medicaid changes. And he was saying, I think the House needs to accept we're to change the bill, and then they need to just basically eat it. They need to not worry about what our changes are. They need to just pass it. We can't just be going back and forth, back and forth. And it's sort of this amazing moment where, you know, there just always is inherent tension between the House and the Senate. It doesn't even matter if you're part of the president's same party.
David Chalian
00:10:40
We're gonna take a quick break. We're going to have a lot more with Lauren Fox. Now that we've discussed how the bill got passed, we'll take a look at what's inside of it. Stay with us. So let's delve in, Lauren, to the specifics here, because not only is it important for people to understand what is actually in this House bill that just passed, but to me, it's also important to understand how are Republicans now going to go out and sell? It's one thing to pass a bill, but now they gotta sell this bill to the American people and have them understand what's in it and try and make it as popular as possible for their own electoral future with the midterms next year. So let's start with maybe one of the more challenging aspects of that, which is on Medicaid. This is the, you know, state and federal program for poor people, lower income people, for their health care. They are reliant upon it. Just so people are clear, like, Medicaid is not something that just like blue states utilize or Democratic voters utilize. There are a lot of the president's supporters who are reliant upon Medicaid, and these Republican members just slashed a huge amount out of the Medicaid budget.
Lauren Fox
00:11:58
'Yeah, I mean, there's really several pieces of the changes that came forward as part of Medicaid. And while some of the most aggressive changes that they had initially been floating didn't make it into the bill, there are some really big changes. One of those is new work requirements for Americans who are able-bodied between the ages of 19 and 64. And that certainly could have an impact on who's eligible for this program. There's also a really weedy piece of this, which changes how states can move forward with provider taxes. That's really important, though, for rural hospitals. And a lot of Republican states rely on rural hospitals for health care for their constituents. And if you start to roll back how much a state can tax on the provider tax of things, you really do start to get into a situation where states have to make up the difference. And all of a sudden, the burden goes onto the states to make decisions about how are they going to continue providing the service? Are they gonna cut other parts of their budget on education? Are they going rollback benefits? Are they are going to have tighter restrictions around who's eligible for the program? So some of that we don't know the answer to right now, but that's why Democrats are arguing that this bill is so bad for people who are already on Medicaid, and it's why Republicans are arguing this isn't a cut because they perhaps won't necessarily have to be the ones to make those hard decisions.
David Chalian
00:13:28
'So we heard the president up on Capitol Hill a couple days ago as he was talking to the whole conference to try and get this over the finish line. He just kept repeating, as Donald Trump does as a message man, waste, fraud, and abuse. Waste, fraud and abuse only. Waste, fraud and abuse only, waste, fraud and abuse. That's all that's being touched in Medicaid. I won't let them touch anything else in Medicaid. Do we know the answer to that? Do we yet know is this purely the savings that in here on Medicaid, is there a way for us to sort of fact-check that right now as true or false if this is only waste, fraud and abuse and not one benefit will be altered for an American?
Lauren Fox
00:14:01
Well, Democrats would argue absolutely it's false. I think Republicans would argue absolutely it's true. And I think the reality is it remains to be seen exactly how this breaks down. And I do think that Republicans are in this really interesting position where, you know, they included a provision that basically says that eligibility checks are going to be every six months instead of every year. Well, perhaps that does cut down on waste, fraud, and abuse because someone who's enrolled in the program, gets a job, no longer qualifies. You know, you're gonna know that sooner than you would at the year mark, but there are other huge questions about how exactly this breaks down for people and how this breaks for states that we just don't know the answer to right now. And I think that that is a huge question mark.
David Chalian
00:14:46
And of course, as you were talking about, what the burden may ultimately be on the states, you know, a lot of states have to have balanced budgets, unlike the federal government. That financial relationship could make or break a state budget in the way that it doesn't federally.
Lauren Fox
00:14:59
And absolutely, I mean, think of a state like California. So another provision in this bill deals with the fact that your state Medicaid program cannot allow people who are undocumented to be accessing your state health care program, or you start to lose a federal contribution for your Medicaid expansion population. Well, in a state like California, where they do allow undocumented immigrants to access the state's, not the federal, but the state's Medicaid program. All of a sudden you get into a position where the governor has to start to make some tough decisions if he's going to continue with that program or not, because all of a sudden you're losing 10% of your federal match for Medicaid expansion.
David Chalian
00:15:40
So let's talk about the tax cuts. A full extension of the 2017 tax cuts that Donald Trump put into law, is that what's inside this bill? And then what is the price tag associated with that? And what is that doing? It seems like the bond markets are concerned about what it's doing, but what is that doing to our deficit and our debt?
Lauren Fox
00:16:01
'The estimate right now, and we should be careful with this because the Congressional Budget Office scored the bill in its form right before the manager's amendment, so right before those last-minute changes, but the estimate was essentially that the tax portion of this could contribute $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit. And, you know, that is a significant number, and it's a problem for even some conservatives, right? I mean, you've heard that from Tim Burchett, who told Manu yesterday, yeah, that's a big problem. And he ultimately still voted for the bill. You also have heard that from other senators, like Senator Ron Johnson, who has said there need to be more severe cuts in this bill in order to make up for that, but Republicans are also sort of banking on the fact that, as they have in the past, that cutting taxes will help the economy and therefore, this is a good bet.
David Chalian
00:16:52
Can I ask on that last line, do you have a sense from talking to Republicans that they think this bill is already instantly popular with the American public or that they have a sales job to do? Because it seems to me, Democrats are convinced it's a political winner for them. And I haven't heard quite that level of confidence in terms of the public consumption of this bill from Republicans just yet.
Lauren Fox
00:17:21
I just think that the two parties are going to focus on the different aspects of the bill. I think Democrats are going be talking a lot about health care. That is a winning issue for them in their minds. That has been successful in the past. I think Republicans are going focusing on the tax piece of things. My biggest question on that though is if nothing changes for you, you know, there are some small changes in this, there's some increases in the child tax credit for a period of time. But if nothing's really changing for you, and it doesn't revert back to before the 2017 tax bill, do you count that as a victory or do you not count that a victory as a voter? And I don't know the answer to that.
David Chalian
00:17:59
I think it's a fantastic question, and I think it gets at the critical difference from the first major legislative push of Trump 1.0, which was the repeal of Obamacare, and that failed, right? And why I think we're in a different moment here, perhaps. Remember, Republicans got that through the House also, under Speaker Ryan, and then it was John McCain's thumbs down moment in the Senate, right, that caused that not to go. That was going to take something away from Americans that they were already starting to feel better about or at least comfortable with, right? This is why I'm not sure we're gonna see a John McCain thumbs down moment, obviously not from John McCain anymore, the late senator from Arizona, but why I think that kind of political history won't repeat itself in the Senate, and again, back to my initial prediction that they're going to get something to the president's desk, because this is not necessarily going to be something that people, that everyone, broadly, in the public, feels changed their life, which means to me, Lauren, that there's going to be more incentive, given that this is the very core of the Republican ideology, for Republicans to get on board with this. They're not having to fear ripping something away. Now, Democrats will say, no, they're taking away this Medicaid coverage. I understand that, but that everyone is going to feel. I just think that's a little different part of the calculus here.
Lauren Fox
00:19:29
'Yeah, I think that's the challenge really for both parties, right? Is that it moves the needle but doesn't move the needle in a way that's so significant. In some ways, it's similar to like an Inflation Reduction Act kind of moment for people, where I'm not sure that every American understood the impact that that bill really had on their day-to-day lives. And so it'll be interesting to see how it gets messaged. I mean, obviously we have had an opportunity, a little bit of a preview from, you know, a 20-hour rules committee meeting to an overnight debate on the House floor of how Democrats are going to go after this. They're passionate, they're obviously well-spoken about the issue of what it means to take healthcare away from Americans. Can they sell that? I think that's a question.
David Chalian
00:20:11
Yeah, take healthcare away from Americans for tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans is really how they are framing it. There's no doubt we have seen right here the very beginnings of one of the big 2026 midterm battles with the passage of this bill. Because now, as you say, it is a race on both sides to define what it will mean for Americans.
Lauren Fox
00:20:31
Can I just take a minute to say there was another very small, interesting moment this week in the Senate when Jacky Rosen went to the floor and asked for a unanimous consent agreement to pass no tax on tips, which is like the one part of this Republican bill that, you know, Democrats can't argue is just for wealthy people. And I thought that it was such an interesting moment because the Republicans didn't object in the Senate. They let her pass it. I don't think it goes anywhere in the House. But it just was this moment of trying to neutralize the one argument that sort of Republicans are really glomming onto over and over again, which is look at this example of a provision that's obviously helping people who are waitresses and cab drivers and are working really hard for their dollars.
David Chalian
00:21:14
That's why we saw both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris support that policy provision, specifically in battleground Nevada last year in the presidential race. Lauren Fox, your work has been tremendous this week. Thank you so much for helping all of CNN's audiences get through this very complicated process. And your work has just begun because now you have to go cover it in the Senate.
Lauren Fox
00:21:35
Joy.
David Chalian
00:21:35
Thank you, so much.
Lauren Fox
00:21:39
Thanks.
David Chalian
00:21:39
That's it for this week's edition of the CNN Political Briefing. Remember, you can reach out to us with your questions about Trump's new administration. Our contact information is in the show notes. CNN Political Briefing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Emily Williams. Our senior producer is Dan Bloom. Dan Dzula is our technical director and Steve Lickteig is the executive producer of CNN Audio. Support from Alex Manassari, Robert Mathers, Jon Dianora, Leni Steinhardt, Jamus Andrest, Nichole Pesaru, and Lisa Namerow. We'll be back with a new episode next Friday. Thanks so much for listening.