logo
Tariffs give 157-year-old chocolate maker Guittard a bitter taste

Tariffs give 157-year-old chocolate maker Guittard a bitter taste

During the Gold Rush of the mid-1850s, Etienne Guittard, a French chocolatier, sailed to California like many others, hoping to strike it rich.
However, he soon realized his fortunes lay not in the mines but in selling the chocolates he brought with him from his uncle's Tournus factory to trade for mining supplies.
In 1868, after a stint refining his skills back in France, he returned and started a small business, E. Guittard & Co., on San Francisco's waterfront. In addition to making chocolate, he sold tea, coffee and spices.
The business became a fixture in the city as it grew into one of the country's major metropolitan centers. Guittard became the chocolate maker of choice for top chefs like Thomas Keller and restaurants such as Chez Panisse, and supplier to iconic confectioner See's Candies since the 1930s.
Over the past century, the family-owned business has survived numerous threats to its existence, including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the Great Depression, massive sugar price hikes in the 1970s and the unexpected deaths of the company's president and successor in the late 1980s, not to mention competition from artisanal brands in the 2000s.
Now it is facing yet another crisis: the Trump administration's global tariff war.
'It was like a jab after a good hard right,' said Gary Guittard, the fifth-generation president and chief executive of Guittard Chocolate Company.
Guittard had just absorbed the shock of last year's 180% spike in cocoa prices (on top of the 61% increase the year before), the result of shortages due to climate impacts and drought, when Trump announced in April that he was implementing global tariffs that would include cocoa beans, chocolate's key ingredient.
While businesses from autos to toys are grappling with the effects of new global tariffs, the imposition of retaliatory levies on imports has injected new turmoil into the already turbulent chocolate market. For a small, slim margin business like Guittard, tariffs have the potential to wreak havoc, as prices are expected to rise even more, creating fresh uncertainties for manufacturers that depend on materials from abroad.
'I didn't understand the numbers until I started playing the numbers,' he said. With the price of cocoa beans tripling in the past two years to $12,931 per metric ton from $3,261 in 2023, Guittard said he was now having to look at adding another 10% into the cost of doing business.
'I immediately thought, we have to raise our prices,' he said.
While other manufacturers may turn to alternatives to help soften the tariff blow, American chocolate makers are wholly reliant on imports. Cacao beans, the raw unprocessed ingredient used to make chocolate, can only grow in tropical regions that are 20 degrees north and south of the equator.
The majority is produced in the West African nations of Ivory Coast and Ghana; it is also grown in parts of Central South America and Southeast Asia.
'We are really having a lot of discussions on how we want to approach the tariffs and whether we can afford to mitigate the effect on our customers by absorbing some of the effects on cost. But that, of course, will affect our bottom line as well,' he said.
The company, now based in Burlingame, Calif., south of San Francisco, sources beans from multiple countries including Ghana, Ivory Coast and South America. The blends have given Guittard chocolate unique flavor profiles, but it has also served as a hedge against the vagaries of the market.
'We have a blend of beans, purely and precisely because of these kinds of events: political events or diseases or anything that can happen,' Guittard said.
Trump's tariffs have injected a new and complex variable into that calculation. While America's trading partners were given a minimum baseline 10% duty, a number of the cacao producing nations, where Guittard purchases its beans, were slapped with higher tariffs. For instance, the Ivory Coast was given 21% and Madagascar a 45% duty.
'I think mathematically you can figure that out,' said Guittard, but noted that the picture becomes increasingly complicated when you try to determine prices when a particular product uses bean blends that have different tariffs. For instance, the company's inventory currently has pre-tariffed beans and is expecting shipments to come in from South America that will be tariffed.
'There's 10 different ways to look at it. So we're just trying to figure out what's the best way for us and our customers.'
Guittard says the company is leaning toward absorbing a portion of the cost. 'We have to decide how much we can absorb and for how long. We certainly can't absorb it all. We're a small family company, not a large multinational conglomerate.'
Guittard, which employs about 240 people, is a small player in the nearly $30-billion U.S.-based chocolate market, generating roughly $100 million annually. The company did not disclose earnings says it's profitable.
Unlike the major U.S. manufacturers such as Hershey and Mars, Guittard, like most small businesses, doesn't have the kind of resources or influence to get a carve out or cushion the coming financial blow.
Chocolate giant Hershey, which earned $11.2 billion in revenue last year, is seeking an exemption from the federal government to help blunt an estimated $20 million in tariff expenses this quarter.
The company's chief financial officer Steve Voskuil said that it was 'using every lever at our disposal to get those tariffs changed.'
Swiss chocolate conglomerate Lindt & Sprüngli, which acquired Ghirardelli in 1998, announced that it will sidestep the U.S. as a supplier in order to avoid tariffs.
'We are monitoring the situation very closely and have identified different ways to mitigate the effect of tariffs,' a Lindt spokesperson told Fox News Digital. 'These include the possibility of supplying countries like Canada and Mexico from our European production facilities.'
The National Confectioners Association, an advocacy trade organization for candy makers, is also seeing how to navigate the situation on behalf of its members. 'We're watching this closely,' said Christopher Gindlesperger, the NCA's senior vice president of public affairs and communications.
'We're trying to look at it through our customer's eyes. We don't want it to affect them,' said Guittard. 'A lot of our customers are family businesses as well.'
For now, Guittard says he will have to play the waiting game and see how it unfolds. A key factor, he says, is how consumers react and whether they will limit or stop buying candy bars and baking chocolate.
'This is a lot more complicated to implement than meets the eye, and we want to be transparent and honest about how we do it rather than using [tariffs] as an excuse to raise prices, which is not what I want to do,' he said.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU)

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU)

Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Grafton Group fair value estimate is UK£11.45 Current share price of UK£9.95 suggests Grafton Group is potentially trading close to its fair value Analyst price target for GFTU is UK£11.89, which is 3.9% above our fair value estimate In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (£, Millions) UK£122.0m UK£147.4m UK£167.8m UK£164.9m UK£164.2m UK£164.9m UK£166.7m UK£169.3m UK£172.4m UK£175.9m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Est @ -1.70% Est @ -0.43% Est @ 0.46% Est @ 1.08% Est @ 1.52% Est @ 1.83% Est @ 2.04% Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.9% UK£112 UK£124 UK£130 UK£117 UK£107 UK£98.8 UK£91.7 UK£85.5 UK£79.9 UK£74.9 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£1.0b We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.9%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£176m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (8.9%– 2.5%) = UK£2.8b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£2.8b÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)10= UK£1.2b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£2.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£9.9, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Grafton Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.242. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Grafton Group Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Trade Distributors market. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market. Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Grafton Group, there are three important elements you should consider: Financial Health: Does GFTU have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for GFTU's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. — Investing narratives with Fair Values A case for TSXV:USA to reach USD $5.00 - $9.00 (CAD $7.30–$12.29) by 2029. By Agricola – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: CA$12.29 · 0.9% Overvalued DLocal's Future Growth Fueled by 35% Revenue and Profit Margin Boosts By WynnLevi – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: $195.39 · 0.9% Overvalued Historically Cheap, but the Margin of Safety Is Still Thin By Mandelman – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: SEK232.58 · 0.2% Overvalued View more featured narratives — Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Canada is doubling down on dairy tariffs ahead of talks with Trump
Canada is doubling down on dairy tariffs ahead of talks with Trump

The Hill

timean hour ago

  • The Hill

Canada is doubling down on dairy tariffs ahead of talks with Trump

Trump often rails against Canada's prohibitively high dairy tariffs. He's about to get angrier. That's because last week, the Canadian Senate passed new legislation, years in the making, which bars the government from negotiating away its dairy protectionism in future trade agreements. The bill's timing was no accident. Canada wants a carve-out from Trump's tariffs and hopes to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement next summer. Trump will demand a lot from Ottawa in exchange. Concessions on Canada's tariff-rate quotas on dairy will be at or near the top of the list. Canada's new bill takes these tariff-rate quotas off the table. This is misguided. Not just because it will frustrate the U.S. and other trade partners, but also because supply management isn't in Canada's national interest. A lot of ink has been spilled trying to make sense of supply management. The system, which dates to the 1970s, sets provincial quotas, establishes minimum prices and imposes steep tariffs. Proponents argue it stabilizes prices and farm incomes. Critics say it results in higher prices for Canadians, stifles industry innovation in agriculture and has caused serious trade tensions long before Trump. Both sides agree on something: Supply management is the third rail of Canadian politics. That's because the system's quotas mostly advantage dairy farmers in Quebec and Ontario. Since these provinces are essential to winning federal elections, Canada's political parties are loath to touch supply management. But Trump's tariffs have given Canadian elected officials the political cover needed to shake up supply management. Under the cloud of unprecedented trade policy uncertainty, big questions loom about the country's economic future. It's a moment of nation-building. It's a time of seriousness. Instead of rising to the occasion, the House of Commons unanimously approved its protectionist dairy bill. What comes next? The writing is on the wall. Trump has raged against Canada's dairy tariffs for years. He vowed that the USMCA would fix things, but it gave Canada 14 tariff-rate quotas on products from milk to cheese and butter that have further complicated things. Canada's tariff-rate quotas give U.S. dairy farmers tariff-free access on up to, say, 50 million metric tons, for example, but then subject them to punitive tariffs for anything more than this. The rates, ranging from 241 percent on milk to 298 percent on butter, are the ones that Trump likes to talk about. But U.S. dairy farmers aren't actually paying these exorbitant rates because they have never exceeded the quotas. Which invites the all-important question: Why? The Biden administration argued that Canada's quotas favor domestic 'processors' of dairy products, as well as so-called 'further processors' that use dairy as inputs used by other products. This keeps high-value-added U.S. exports worth hundreds of millions of dollars out of the Canadian market. In 2021, the U.S. brought a case against Canada's tariff-rate quotas under the USMCA and won. In a second case, however, Canada was deemed to be in compliance with its obligations. This ruling frustrated the Biden administration. Now, Trump wants to use tariffs to make things right. The U.S. isn't alone in complaining about Canada's dairy tariff-rate quotas. Just Last year, New Zealand filed a similar case against Ottawa under the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership. The U.S. and New Zealand have also sued Canada over its tariff-rate quotas at the World Trade Organization. Given this, it should hardly be surprising that there's domestic opposition to the bill. The Canadian Cattle Association called it 'bad trade policy.' The Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance said it was 'a flawed piece of legislation that sets a troubling precedent, undermining Canada's longstanding commitment to the rules-based international trading system.' Trump's tariffs inspired Canada to take bold steps to remove inter-provincial trade barriers, despite age-old political hurdles. Getting out from under the country's supply management should have been prioritized with the same level of urgency and commitment to creative problem-solving. Canada's new dairy protectionism bill isn't that. Marc L. Busch is the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.

What's next as the British pound hits its highest in more than three years?
What's next as the British pound hits its highest in more than three years?

CNBC

timean hour ago

  • CNBC

What's next as the British pound hits its highest in more than three years?

The British pound is hovering at its highest level in more than three years — and analysts are divided on the potential for further upside. Britain's currency was last seen trading around the $1.36 mark on Wednesday morning in London. It marked a slight drop from Tuesday, when sterling hit its highest level since January 2022. So far this year, the pound has surged 8.7% against the greenback. Against the euro, however, sterling is down 2.9% year-to-date. It was last seen trading marginally higher against the euro zone currency, with one pound buying around 1.173 euros. According to Janet Mui, head of market analysis at RBC Brewin Dolphin, much of the pound's upward trajectory is actually more to do with underlying dollar weakness than faith in sterling itself. "The relative strength of the pound has been more of a weak U.S. dollar story this year," she told CNBC by email on Wednesday. U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies shook confidence in American assets earlier this year, which in turn has sparked concerns in markets about de-dollarization. Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said sterling was on a recovery journey from the "extreme low" seen in the aftermath of former British Prime Minister Liz Truss's so-called mini budget, which sparked a severe sell off of the pound and U.K. government bonds in 2022. He agreed, however, that much of the movement this year was attributable to dollar weakness, pointing out sterling's simultaneous depreciation against the euro. "I would expect that pattern to continue in the future, with the dollar weakening along with the US economy (and investor doubts about US fiscal and tariff policies), while the euro could strengthen on optimism about the implications of the coming fiscal boost (especially in Germany)," Invesco's Jackson said. He argued that the ECB had likely completed most of its monetary easing for the current cycle, whereas the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve "have a lot of catching up to do." "In 12 months, I would expect GBPUSD to be around 1.40 and GBPEUR to be around 1.15 (currently 1.17)," Jackson added. Jackson's forecast represents a roughly 2.9% premium from current exchange rates against the dollar. RBC Brewin Dolphin's Mui suggested that in the coming months, the outlook for the British pound is not overly compelling — but noted that geopolitical developments could catalyze further upward movements in the longer term. "In the near-term, further upside for the pound may be limited due to softer UK economic momentum and more scope for the Bank of England to cut rates," she said. "Looking ahead, one potential catalyst for the pound could be improved relations with the EU, particularly if it translates into more concrete action over time."

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store