World leaders risk a Trump backlash to turn on Israel

Sydney Morning Herald

2 days ago

Starmer called Netanyahu before the cabinet meeting. The formal 'readout' of this call was typically bland, but the Israeli leader's reaction on the phone was not hard to guess. Soon afterwards, he accused the British leader of appeasing the Hamas terrorists.
Netanyahu, however, has had few world leaders rallying to his side. Even Trump, who leads Israel's most vital ally, seemed unworried about Starmer's decision. Flying home from Scotland, he told reporters on Air Force One it was 'OK' that the United Kingdom was following France. 'It doesn't mean I have to agree,' he added.
While the diplomatic debates were about statehood, the urgent arguments were about aid.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Gaza was on the brink of famine: 'Palestinians in Gaza are enduring a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions.'
The UN estimated that more than 20,000 children had been treated for acute malnutrition. The World Food Program said more than 500,000 people, or about one quarter of the population in Gaza, were enduring famine-like conditions.
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This was the backdrop to the diplomatic manoeuvres. Early in the week, there was no sense of a penalty from Trump for those who spoke up for Palestine.
Macron was working with Saudi Arabia to advance a two-state solution at the UN. The French and Saudi foreign ministers jointly chaired a UN session in New York to step up the push.
On Tuesday, 15 nations backed a French call for a ceasefire in Gaza and a two-state solution. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong was among the signatories. The others were from Andorra, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia and Spain.
One day later, the Arab League moved. It condemned the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, the slaughter of civilians that led to the war. This declaration, also at the UN session in New York, marked the first condemnation of its kind from major Muslim nations.
Among the signatories were Qatar and Turkey, two vital states in the Hamas network. Qatar has given an estimated $2.6 billion to Hamas over the years, while Turkey has been a second home for some of the terrorist group's leaders.
The declaration set out a peace plan that appeared ambitious. After decades of conflict, it seemed to be an impossible hope. It sought an independent, demilitarised Palestine at peace with Israel – and with no place for Hamas.
'In the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority,' it said. It was signed by the Arab League, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, the European Union, France, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Mexico, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Spain, Turkey and the UK.
Leaders were moving together. Macron spoke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday, along with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
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Starmer spoke to the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, on Tuesday. The Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, called on Monday for both Israel and Hamas to leave Gaza. Every step this week has seemed predicated on the idea that Abbas would administer Gaza – even though the two Palestinian zones are divided by Israel.
The push for Palestinian statehood had immense challenges: the absence of any agreed borders, the uncertainty about any elections to agree on a political leadership, the convenient assumption that Hamas would somehow leave Gaza. More than anything, however, it faced the unwavering rejection of Netanyahu and Trump.
Only after several days did Trump make his displeasure known. While he did not complain about Starmer – the two have a good relationship – he snapped at Mark Carney when the Canadian prime minister took a similar step to his British counterpart.
Carney moved after speaking with Starmer on Tuesday and Abbas on Wednesday, and he named similar concerns to France and the UK: the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and the lack of food in Gaza.
Carney, however, took a very different approach with the conditions he placed on Canada's decision to recognise a Palestinian state. He said a key factor would be whether the Palestinian Authority would commit to reform its own governance and demilitarise its territory. Both those objectives are easier said than done.
Trump reacted on his Truth Social account: 'Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them.'
The implications for Australia were immediate: Trump was willing to wield economic pressure on countries that did not follow his lead.
Even so, Trump was moving more slowly than the rest of the world. Germany, for instance, offered some support for its European neighbours on Thursday morning. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is a strong supporter of Israel, but his government showed its impatience with Israeli ministers who advocate the annexation of Palestinian territory.
Germany's Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, sent this signal before he boarded a flight to Jerusalem on Thursday. He noted that many countries in Europe were prepared to recognise a Palestinian state, but he repeated Germany's policy that this must depend on the process towards a two-state solution.
'That process must begin now,' he said. 'Should unilateral steps be taken, Germany, too, will be compelled to respond.' This last sentence hinted that Germany might yet shift its stance if Israel continues to claim Palestinian land.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has to weigh up the reaction from Trump as he considers whether to join the growing cluster of nations that are expressing their frustration with Netanyahu and his government. There are now 147 nations, of the 193 member states at the UN, that recognise Palestine. Albanese will have to decide whether Australia stands with Trump and Netanyahu, or with the long list of leaders heading in the other direction.
The images of children starving in Gaza have shifted the global debate. Even so, there should be no illusion that a vote on statehood in New York in September will somehow give those children aid. Everything has been about applying more pressure on Israel. There is no certainty that delivering a diplomatic blow will force its government to allow more food to reach the hungry.
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Netanyahu is increasingly isolated. Trump, his strongest ally, stands by him on the recognition of Palestine. But even Trump can see the starvation in Gaza. And most other world leaders are making their impatience clear – in call after call.
What we do not know is whether all their talk with force anyone to act.