HSBC sees Japan, India, China as favoured in trade deal talks
[SYDNEY] Japan, India and China are likely in 'pole position' to secure a long-term trade deal with the US, while Singapore and Australia could also 'unexpectedly race ahead,' according to Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings.
'As the largest investor in the US and a major military ally, Japan might normally be first in line for any trade deal among Asian economies,' Neumann wrote in a note to clients dated on Thursday (May 15).
He cited US President Donald Trump's recent claim that India had offered to completely drop its tariffs as well as continued talks between the US and China among reasons for why these countries may bag a deal soon.
For US multinational corporations, Japan, India, Indonesia and other Asian economies are collectively even more important than China, Neumann said, adding American firms are therefore likely to lobby against raising trade barriers on these economies.
For their part, Asian economies will need to ramp up their imports from the US, Neumann said.
'Successful trade negotiations could hinge on commitments to purchase key products promoted by the Trump administration,' Neumann wrote. 'Moving forward, we expect many Asian economies to ramp up strategic purchases of US mineral fuels, aircraft, and agricultural products, along with automobiles and military hardware when applicable.'
Besides making strategic purchasing commitments, Asian economies can also address US concerns over alleged non-tariff trade barriers. Announcements on investments in the US could also be a good way for policymakers in Asia to get some goodwill, Neumann added. BLOOMBERG
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Straits Times
2 hours ago
- Straits Times
‘A beautiful experience': Singapore Cardinal William Goh on being part of the conclave
Singaporean Cardinal William Goh was among the 133 cardinals who participated in the conclave to elect the new pope. ST PHOTO: GIN TAY SINGAPORE – Amid the cheering in St Peter's Square and excitement from Catholics across the world on May 8 , the election of a new pope also brought about another element: surprise. The newly elected Pope Leo XIV – or Cardinal Robert Prevost as he was known then – became the first American pope in the 2,000-year history of the Church. Within the hallowed walls of the Sistine Chapel in Rome , where the election process known as the conclave took place, the surprise was not lost on Singaporean William Goh , who was one of the 133 cardinals who took part in the voting. 'He was not one of the well-known candidates for the papacy... and most of us did not know him except for those perhaps from Latin America or Rome,' said Cardinal Goh, referring to Pope Leo. But discussions about the pope's nationality do not matter, he said, as the pontiff's role is to be a symbol of unity and to serve the Church and everyone else. Cardinal Goh became the first Singaporean to vote for a new head of the Roman Catholic Church. Now back in Singapore, the 67-year-old archbishop described the experience as 'beautiful' during an interview with The Straits Times on June 4 . 'I went in without knowing exactly what I would be doing, and how this whole process would evolve,' he said. '(But) I went in with a great sense of responsibility that being one of the 133 electors, the person we chose to be next pope would have serious implications – not just for the Church, but for the world.' Although Pope Leo was elected in just two days, the preparation process that preceded the vote took nine days, when all 252 cardinals – both electors and non-electors – gathered to share with one another their views, concerns and challenges that each country faces. 'We come from all over the world; we have different views of what we think the new pope should do and can do, because we come from diverse circumstances,' said Cardinal Goh, adding that he felt this period was the most important part of the election process. 'But we are all agreeable that the pope must be one that can promote unity within the Church and peace among nations.' Informal interactions between the cardinals during breaks or at dinner allowed them to get to know one another better. 'We never had the chance to meet each other and to hear from one another, so it was a very beautiful moment, and for me, the most enriching part of the whole experience,' Cardinal Goh said. The 2025 conclave was a historic moment not just for Singapore, but also for Asia. There were 23 cardinals from the region present, reportedly the most in the history of the conclave, a process that dates back to the Middle Ages. 'In the past, most of the cardinals came from Europe. But the church has become too euro-centric, which is not the universal church today,' said Cardinal Goh, adding that Christianity has been growing in Asia and Africa. The religion has been declining in many parts of Europe, but there has been a revival of faith, especially within younger people in the region, he said. As such, the late Pope Francis' move to pick cardinals from across the world was important in helping the Church preserve its Catholicity, he added. The Argentinian pontiff, who died in April , was known for his humility and advocacy for the poor and marginalised. When deciding whom to vote for as the new pope, Cardinal Goh said he felt that the world today needed someone who would bring unity not just to the world, but also within the Church. 'But of course, unity doesn't mean uniformity,' he said, adding that unity also recognises diversity, which should be encouraged as long as it is consistent with scripture. 'It is in diversity that we really see the richness of the Church... the different cultures, liturgies, rites and ways of living out the pastoral mission in affluent countries, in poor countries, countries under oppression and discrimination.' Cardinal Goh posing for a picture near St Peter's Square at the Vatican on May 5, before the conclave began. PHOTO: REUTERS Unity should also involve clarity of doctrine, said Cardinal Goh, who cautioned against a form of inclusiveness that allows anyone to do whatever they want. 'The Church is not a clubhouse, where you can choose to swim, sing or play in the casino. The Church is where all of us are members of this body of Christ, (and) we believe in the gospel. We want to live out that teaching,' he said. 'Inclusivity means all are welcome... So long as you know that you are here not to change the gospel to suit your own preference, but that you will change your life to suit the gospel. That, for me, is inclusivity.' The conclave has long been the subject of much speculation and intrigue, due to the shroud of secrecy surrounding the voting process. But the death of Pope Francis also sparked strong interest in a different conclave – the Oscar-winning film starring Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci. Viewership of the movie reportedly spiked 283 per cent after the pope's death. Parts of the movie, such as the tight security, strict ban on bringing in any digital devices and meetings between the cardinals before the conclave to share their views, are true, said Cardinal Goh, who watched it at The Projector with his staff. But other parts are over-exaggerated, he added. Cardinals do not try to manipulate the situation, lobby one group against another or have secret meetings at night. He said that once the conclave began, the cardinals were busy with masses and voting rounds, adding that their day would start at around 8am and end at 9pm. 'We are too tired to be able to hold all these other meetings at night.' As the world was introduced to Pope Leo on May 8, Cardinal Goh stood alongside his fellow cardinals on the balcony of St Peter's Basilica while thousands cheered from below. Witnessing this was very inspiring, he said, adding that the response was 'one of deep faith, unity, support and joy'. Newly elected Pope Leo XIV appearing on the balcony of St Peter's Basilica at the Vatican on May 8 to greet the thousands of faithful who had gathered. PHOTO: REUTERS In describing the new pontiff, Cardinal Goh said he found Pope Leo to be very prayerful and meditative. '(He) is someone who really wants to listen, learn and try to understand... He doesn't react suddenly and is a man who thinks through what he wants to say,' Cardinal Goh said. For non-Catholics who had followed the conclave, the cardinal said he hopes they can come to appreciate what the Church is doing for humanity, and that it welcomes everyone. 'We want to promote authentic life, respect for every human person, and respect for people of other religions and cultures,' he said. 'And we can work together in unity for the good of humanity.' Join ST's WhatsApp Channel and get the latest news and must-reads.
Business Times
3 hours ago
- Business Times
Can US ports handle a freight spike or will they be overwhelmed?
ARE Los Angeles and Long Beach heading for another port congestion crisis? Since the United States put tariffs on hold for a 90-day trade war truce with China on May 14, the market has expected a shipping surge driven by Chinese exports. Ocean carriers have re-instated suspended services, restarted vessels lying idle, and introduced new routes – revitalising transpacific lanes. But how much capacity has actually returned to the US-bound trade? Estimates vary. According to maritime consultancy eeSea, total capacity from Asia to North America will reach 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in June – 400,000 TEUs more than May. That figure is projected to climb further in July to 2.8 million TEUs. The majority of this added capacity targets the US West Coast, particularly the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Data provider Sea-Intelligence reports similar trends. Its latest weekly update shows a 17 per cent year-on-year rise in Asia-US West Coast capacity in June, with a projected 19 per cent jump in July. Meanwhile, East Coast capacity is growing more modestly – up only 7 per cent in June but expected to match the West Coast's 19 per cent rise in July. These figures are based on carriers' existing schedules, which remain subject to change. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The big question is whether Los Angeles and Long Beach can handle this influx. Will the port congestion seen in the pandemic era re-appear? Preliminary forecasts indicate that container volumes at both ports will begin rising in the second week of June, topping 100,000 TEUs a week. Volumes will continue climbing in the third week. While fourth-week data is not yet available, estimates suggest traffic will remain elevated. Many extra sailings are scheduled to arrive in late June and early July, suggesting persistently high throughput at least into mid-July. Historically, both ports handled their highest Asian import volumes in 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic – about 10 million TEUs for the year. The Port of Los Angeles alone processed a record 520,000 TEUs in May 2021, while the Port of Long Beach reached its single-month peak of 400,000 TEUs the same month. Will the same influx appear again this time? Industry opinion is divided. Senior executives at leading carriers and terminals suggest the tariff deferral may not trigger a pandemic-style shipping boom. While June volumes are likely to exceed May's, early expectations may have overshot. Much of the inventory that had been sitting in warehouses shipped out quickly after the May 14 tariff suspension. And even if buyers place new orders, lead times mean many shipments will not depart until late June or July. Moreover, despite the suspension of a 125 per cent reciprocal tariff, the 30 per cent levy added this year – on top of 2018's Section 301 duties – means US-China trade has not returned to normal. The truce may offer temporary relief, but it is unlikely to generate a prolonged surge. Freight rates on transpacific routes have spiked in recent weeks. But does that signal true demand strength? A key indicator is the balance between cargo booked under negotiated contract (NAC) rates versus freight-all-kinds spot rates. At present, many freight forwarders are still able to secure lower-priced NAC slots — suggesting excess capacity remains. While sentiment may push prices upward temporarily, ultimate rate direction hinges on ship utilisation. If vessels sail full, rates will hold firm. If not, the rally will fade. So, will there be port congestion? A sudden and sustained spike in volume could strain operations. However, if elevated cargo volumes last only two to three weeks, the ports can manage. If imports climb more than 20 per cent above normal and stay high through July, congestion risks increase sharply. The bottom line is that Los Angeles and Long Beach are entering a high-alert phase. If disruption comes, it will probably begin to show in late July. CAIXIN GLOBAL Zhang Huafeng is the chief operating officer of Duke Shipping Agency
Business Times
3 hours ago
- Business Times
ECB's Schnabel says now is right time to boost role of euro
[DUBROVNIK] European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel sees a favourable moment now to strengthen the euro's global role as investors turn to Europe. There is a 'window of opportunity' to increase the international role of the euro, she said in a question to a panel at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference on Saturday (Jun 7). Earlier at the same conference, she said that there are signals that investors are focusing on the continent to diversify their portfolios, calling it a 'positive confidence effect.' The remarks reinforce comments from policymakers including president Christine Lagarde and show how officials are seeking to turn President Donald Trump's attacks on global trade and US institutions to their advantage. Investors have rushed out of the US dollar so far this year, with the greenback falling against every other major currency tracked by Bloomberg. At the end of May, Lagarde said that Trump's erratic policies offer a 'prime opportunity' to strengthen the euro's role and allow the currency bloc to enjoy more of the privileges so far reserved for the US dollar. The changes 'create the opening for a 'global euro moment,'' that politicians should seize, she said. Schnabel on Saturday referred to talks with financial market actors showing that investors are becoming more interested in diversifying and 'moving a bit into Europe – again, great news.' BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up She said that this is also due to expected higher public spending in Europe in defence and infrastructure. 'In the case of Germany, which has a lot of fiscal space, actually also investors saw it very positively that finally Germany gave up on its austerity,' she said. Schnabel highlighted that more investment into Europe ease financial conditions and lowers fragmentation – 'which is another very positive effect.' In recent weeks, Schnabel has emphasised the need for a big European bond market to strengthen the euro's global role and suggested considering joint debt to finance public goods in Europe. Commenting in an interview with El Pais published on Sunday, Spain's central bank chief Jose Luis Escriva also highlighted that 'the US dollar's dominance as an international reserve currency seems to be peaking.' 'The euro has the potential to compete with the US dollar, especially if it maintains its macroeconomic and institutional stability,' he said. 'With a strong economy and a trade volume larger than that of the US, Europe has room to strengthen the euro's role as a reserve and reference currency in an international trade still dominated by the US dollar.' BLOOMBERG
