Kheiriddin: This BBQ season, Carney could be flipping MPs

Montreal Gazette

4 days ago

With Parliament now back in business, pundits and politicos are focused on this session's agenda.
What will the government do about Trump and tariffs? How will Mark Carney perform in Question Period? When will Pierre Poilievre return to Parliament? And how will the NDP survive without party status?
But not much will happen on the Hill in the next few weeks: the PM will be busy hosting the G7 at Kananaskis in Alberta, and the House will rise in late June.
No, the real intrigue lies just over the horizon in the fall. The big question: Can the Liberal minority morph into a majority by then, to secure four years of power and avoid tangling with the opposition?
The math is simple: The Liberals currently hold 169 seats, after the Newfoundland riding of Terra Nova—The Peninsulas flipped to the Conservatives following a recent recount.
If the courts order a byelection in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, where Elections Canada sent mail-in ballots astray due to improperly printed postal codes, the riding would likely flip to the Bloc Québécois, bringing the Liberals' total down to 168. And with Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia now elected as Speaker, they technically would only have 167.
The majority threshold is 172. That means Carney would need five more MPs to lock in power.
Small wonder, then, that the Liberals did not extend the NDP the courtesy of official party status. If the NDP had any hope of maintaining it, that went out the window when it botched its interim leader selection process, prompting three of its MPs to pen a letter of complaint — and sending blood into the water for circling Liberal sharks.
What could the Liberals offer to get NDP members to cross the floor?
They could start with pharmacare, by expanding the list of 'free' drugs from diabetes and birth control. During the election, former leader Jagmeet Singh had pledged to expand coverage to 'around 100 of the most prescribed medications,' including antibiotics, pain medication and cancer drugs.
Regional development money could also be targeted to NDP-held ridings, to help tackle the impact of tariffs.
But the big carrot could be foreign policy. The NDP has long supported Palestinian statehood, and was pushing for recognition in the Commons last year. Former PM Justin Trudeau said last fall that Canada was discussing the subject with its allies, and just last week Carney delivered a statement with Britain and France that the three nations are 'committed to recognizing a Palestinian state.'
There is speculation that the Liberals are planning on putting forward a resolution — one that would undoubtedly pass if all seven NDP MPs voted for it, or enough made the switch to Liberal ranks.
If the Liberals don't find enough friends on the left, they may also look to poach some Conservatives, who have their own set of problems.
The party is rife with rage about its recent loss, much of it directed at management. A dozen MPs told reporters on background that they want campaign manager Jenni Byrne out of the picture.
If Poilievre doesn't play ball, MPs who don't see a future in the party might be tempted by the promise of influence elsewhere — particularly if they're staring down the barrel of four years in opposition.
This summer, the traditional barbecue circuit could look quite different. Instead of trolling for votes, the Liberals could be trolling for recruits.
Securing a majority would mean both killing the NDP and wounding the Conservatives, who might be tempted to play knife the leader again, given that there would be no imminent possibility of an election.
Let the 45th session of Parliament begin.