Contrary to Trump's claims, Canadian border is not major source of fentanyl, U.S. report says
Most of the fentanyl entering the United States continues to come from the southern border, not the northern one, according to a recent report by an American think-tank, despite President Donald Trump's statement on Thursday that Canadian authorities have failed 'to stop the drugs from pouring into our country.'
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'Countering supply effectively depends on understanding what the dominant drug-trafficking routes are,' says the report by the Manhattan Institute, which was published July 1. 'New data on fentanyl seizures presented here largely reinforce previous understanding that most IMF (illegally manufactured fentanyl) enters the U.S. from the south. These data call into question tariffs and other policies and policy justifications that treat the threat from the northern border as comparably severe.'
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Donald J. Trump Truth Social 07.10.25 08:15 PM EST pic.twitter.com/33y4kfJlPl
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) July 11, 2025
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The report used new data regarding fentanyl seizures, which challenges public pronouncements made by Trump and the White House about the threats posed by the Canadian border. Authors Jon Caulkins and Bishu Giri write that such concerns are largely overstated and could even undermine America's ability to prioritize tightening the country's border with Mexico.
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The report looked at 'large' seizures of fentanyl — defined as over a kilogram of powder or more than 1,000 pills — that would suggest wholesale trafficking as opposed to smuggling for personal use. It found that officials made more large seizures in U.S. counties along the northern and southern borders when compared to the rest of the country. However, far more seizures were made in the south.
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'Counties along the Mexican border account for only 2.35 per cent of the U.S. population; but in 2023–24, they hosted about 40 per cent of the nationwide quantity of fentanyl appearing in large seizures, for both powder and pills,' says the executive summary of the Manhattan Institute's report. 'By contrast, counties in the lower 48 states that border Canada account for 3.1 per cent of the U.S. population but only 1.2 per cent of the powder and just 0.5 per cent of the pills obtained in large seizures.'
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