UFC 315: Preview, Betting Trends & Prop Picks
The card is topped by a welterweight bout with champion Belal Muhammad taking on No. 5-ranked Australian challenger Jack Della Maddalena.
Muhammad (24-3 MMA, 15-3 UFC) is making his first title defense after suffering an injury late last year. Muhammad upset former champion Leon Edwards last July in the main event of UFC 304 to usher in a new era at 170 pounds.
Muhammad, a Chicago native, said Thursday that Della Maddalena (17-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) will see a new version none of Muhammad's previous opponents have seen before: "Canelo Hands."
"Jack goes down in three (rounds)," Muhammad told reporters at the pre-fight presser.
Della Maddalena didn't take too kindly to Muhammad's words, dismissing the notion that Muhammad won't use his potent wrestling base to win the fight.
"That's not gonna happen," Della Maddalena said.
The public is split on the fight, with Muhammad backed by 51 percent of the total bets at BetMGM. That has contributed to his pre-fight odds shifting from -250 to -180, although Muhammad has drawn 71 percent of the total money wagered.
Della Maddalena hasn't lost in nine years, compiling an unblemished UFC mark after earning a UFC contract by winning his Dana White Contender Series bout against Ange Loosa in September 2021. However, he was the +145 underdog on Friday after opening at +200.
The main card festivities get underway at 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT on pay-per-view.
OTHER MAIN CARD FIGHTS
The co-headliner sees Valentina Shevchenko begin her second stint as UFC flyweight champion against French native Manon Fiorot.
Shevchenko (24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC) exacted revenge last September against Alexa Grasso to regain the belt. Meanwhile, Fiorot (12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC) looks to become the first Frenchwoman to win a UFC title and extend her promotional win streak to eight.
Fiorot is the -135 favorite, but it's Shevchenko who has drawn 79 percent of the bets and 62 percent of the money while seeing her odds lengthen slightly from +100 to +110. This has been the most bet-on fight in terms of total bets on Saturday's 12-fight card.
--Jose Aldo (32-9, 14-8) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (12-2, 6-2), featherweight
This fight was moved from bantamweight at weigh-ins. That's the division Aldo has fought in for more than five years, but the switch on Friday came as a surprise. An official reason had yet to be given, although it could well be because Aldo was struggling to make the weight cut. He weighed in at 143 pounds to Zahabi's 142.
Aldo was the -210 favorite as of Friday morning, although Zahabi had drawn 70 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the money. The fight has been of modest interest with the public, ranking as only the fifth most bet-on fight on Saturday's card.
--Alexa Grasso (16-4-1, 8-4-1) vs. Natalia Silva (18-5-1, 6-0), flyweight
After a trilogy against Shevchenko over the past three years, Grasso will step into the Octagon against Silva. Grasso, who lost the title last fall, said "it's good to have a new opponent."
The Brazilian Silva has yet to lose in the promotion, with her unblemished record including a win over former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade.
Grasso has garnered 76 percent of the bets as the +200 underdog, while Silva has drawn 53 percent of the total money while seeing her odds as the favorite shift from -190 to -250.
--Benoit Saint-Denis (13-3, 5-3) vs. Kyle Prepolec (18-8, 0-2), lightweight
Prepolec stepped in on a week's notice to save the fight for Saint-Denis after Mateusz Gamrot pulled out.
It's understandably receiving the most one-sided action at BetMGM, with Prepolec backed by 85 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the money as the public hopes for a massive upset by the +725 underdog. Meanwhile, Saint-Denis' odds have held as the overwhelming -1200 favorite.
TOP PROP PICK
--Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO or DQ (+300 at BetMGM): This has been the book's most popular prop on the card, followed by Muhammad at -115 to win by decision or technical decision.
--Field Level Media
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