logo
Oil Options More Bullish Than After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Oil Options More Bullish Than After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Bloomberg6 hours ago

Oil options are now more bullish than after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, showing a global market that's on edge as Israel and Iran trade blows, and speculation mounts that the US may join the attack.
The premium of bullish Brent calls — which profit when prices rise — was at the widest relative to the opposite puts in data going back to 2013, as of Tuesday's close. A measure of implied volatility has also surged, as higher-than-usual volumes of options contracts changed hands in recent days.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Geopolitical Chaos in the Middle East Emboldens Shell's (SHEL) Revenue Ambitions
Geopolitical Chaos in the Middle East Emboldens Shell's (SHEL) Revenue Ambitions

Business Insider

time24 minutes ago

  • Business Insider

Geopolitical Chaos in the Middle East Emboldens Shell's (SHEL) Revenue Ambitions

The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has set global markets on edge, with oil prices rising as fears mount over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for 20% of the world's oil. Of course, higher crude prices are a boon for energy giants, and Shell (SHEL) is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity. Confident Investing Starts Here: Despite trading near its 52-week high, Shell's valuation remains compelling, especially if geopolitical unrest continues to keep oil prices elevated. Looking at the most recent performance metrics, in Q1 2025, Shell reported adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion, with an EPS of $1.84, a 52% increase from the previous quarter. Israel-Iran Tensions and the Oil Price Surge The Middle East is a powder keg again, with Israel's recent strikes on Iran's nuclear and military targets sparking retaliation and global fears. Crude oil prices jumped over 7% to approximately $75 a barrel last Friday and have since remained elevated, with some analysts warning that prices could reach $100 or more if the conflict escalates further. According to political analysts, an all-out war between Israel and Iran is a strong possibility. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint handling a fifth of global oil and significant LNG flows, is at the heart of these fears. Iran's control over its northern edge means any closure could choke off supply, sending prices skyrocketing. For Shell, one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, this could be a golden opportunity. With its operations spanning exploration, production, and refining across Europe, Asia, and the Americas, Shell's scale ensures it reaps outsized rewards when crude prices climb. Shell's integrated model, which encompasses everything from upstream drilling to downstream refining, positions it to capture value across the supply chain, particularly when margins widen during supply crunches. Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters Now the Strait of Hormuz isn't just a waterway, it's the lifeblood of global energy. About 20 million barrels of oil per day, or 20% of global consumption, pass through this 21-mile-wide channel. Thus, Iran's ability to disrupt or even temporarily close the strait, as some fear in a worst-case escalation, could be disastrous for supply. Analysts at JPMorgan have floated $130 per barrel as a possibility, while ING warns that $150 could be reached if disruptions persist. Such intense oil price shocks are rarely suitable for smooth global economics, but for resource companies like SHEL, it could be a potent revenue booster. Shell's exposure to this region is significant but strategic. While it doesn't rely solely on Middle Eastern crude, its global trading arm actively deals in oil and LNG, allowing it to pivot quickly to high-margin opportunities. If the Strait faces prolonged issues, Shell's ability to source and refine oil from other regions, like its North American and African assets, gives it a competitive edge. Plus, its LNG operations could benefit if natural gas flows from Qatar, another strait-dependent exporter, tighten. Shell's Strategic Moves Amplify Its Edge Shell's recent decisions make it even better positioned to thrive in this environment. Under CEO Wael Sawan, the company has doubled down on its core strengths (i.e., oil, gas, and biofuels) while trimming less profitable ventures like U.S. offshore wind, which saw a $1 billion write-off in 2024. This pivot has sharpened its focus on high-margin segments, with Shell cutting $3.1 billion in costs a year ahead of schedule. A Valuation That Screams Opportunity At today's share price, Shell trades at roughly 11x its consensus EPS estimate of $6.21 for 2025, a bargain for a company of its caliber. Importantly, I believe that analysts haven't yet factored in the full impact of the Israel-Iran conflict, so the effective P/E could be even lower if oil prices remain high, let alone if they rise further. What is the 12-Month Forecast for Shell Stock? Wall Street remains highly bullish on Shell, with a Strong Buy consensus based on seven Buy and two Hold ratings over the past three months, and notably, no Sell ratings. Currently, SHEL's average 12-month stock price target of $75.87 suggests a 6.2% upside from current levels. Shell Offers Discounted Upside as Specter of War Intensifies Shell stands out in today's market as a global energy leader trading at a discount, backed by strong shareholder returns and positioned to benefit from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Ongoing risks around the Israel-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices elevated, boosting Shell's earnings potential. With a low P/E ratio, a nearly 4% dividend yield, and an additional 7% from share buybacks, Shell presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity for investors seeking exposure to energy in a volatile global landscape.

Donald Trump's Old Tweet Mocking Obama On Iran Comes Back To Haunt Him
Donald Trump's Old Tweet Mocking Obama On Iran Comes Back To Haunt Him

Yahoo

time24 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Donald Trump's Old Tweet Mocking Obama On Iran Comes Back To Haunt Him

Another old tweet from Donald Trump has gone viral again, but for the wrong reasons. As the president continued to ramp up his rhetoric against Iran, critics pointed to a November 2013 social media post where Trump accused then-President Barack Obama of planning to attack Iran. Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 11, 2013 'Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly—not skilled!' Trump wrote, when he was still a reality TV personality. The resurfaced tweet sparked comments about irony, given Trump's recent saber-rattling against Tehran. What is it you said again???? — Martina Navratilova (@Martina) June 17, 2025 There's always a tweet. — Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) June 17, 2025 Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Trump will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled! — Mario Callous, x grinder & amusements editor (@idonevenknowho) June 17, 2025 Always — Mason (@masonisonx) June 17, 2025 Guess who tweeted this back in 2013? 🤣'Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!'8:55 PM • 11/10/13 — News Watcher (@testbotnews) June 17, 2025 In Trumpworld, projection isn't a defense mechanism—it's a prophecy. — MC Debris (@emceedebris) June 17, 2025 'Atrocious': Eric Trump Slammed For 'Disgusting' Use Of Offensive Slur In Interview 'Good F**king Gawd!': Trump Ripped As Putin's PR Guy After G7 Whine 'Like A Monty Python Skit': Trump's UK Trade Deal Moment Gets Super Weird In A Hurry

Burnt by the Boom: Solar's Growing Pains
Burnt by the Boom: Solar's Growing Pains

Bloomberg

time25 minutes ago

  • Bloomberg

Burnt by the Boom: Solar's Growing Pains

Solar module prices have been cratering in recent years, dragged down by global oversupply. Yet while this glut of photovoltaics has hammered manufacturer profits, it has also allowed emerging economies that are hungry for affordable energy to get into the solar game, and demand growth is still strong this year. So what lies ahead for this notoriously tricky market, could energy storage help mitigate electricity price spikes, and what impact could the Trump administration's tariffs have on domestic US solar manufacturing? On today's show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Jenny Chase, a BloombergNEF solar specialist, to discuss findings from her note '2Q 2025 Global PV Market Outlook.'

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store