Platinum market deficit deepens: third consecutive deficit in 2025, now expected at 966 koz

Cision Canada

19-05-2025

Forecast total supply in 2025 is the lowest in five years, declining by 4% to 6,999 koz
Resurgence in China platinum jewellery demand drives a forecast 5% increase in global jewellery demand this year
Automotive demand resilient despite market uncertainty; forecast 2% reduction to 3,052 koz for full year 2025
Robust investment demand continues, forecast at 688 koz in 2025, bolstered by strong bar and coin demand in China
Above ground stocks to fall to 2,160 koz in 2025, representing only three months of demand cover
Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, comments:
"The platinum market is in structural deficit, irrespective of the uncertainties posed by today's geopolitics. We are seeing that platinum's diversity of demand provides a significant degree of resilience even as the US government's new approach to tariff policy starts to take effect. At the same time, it is widely recognised that platinum mine supply continues to face downside risks."
LONDON, May 19, 2025 /CNW/ -- The World Platinum Investment Council - WPIC® - today publishes its Platinum Quarterly for the first quarter of 2025 with a revised full year 2025 forecast.
Global demand in Q1'25 recorded a 10% year-on-year increase to 2,274 koz. This was due to strong investment demand, driven principally by a sharp rise in exchange held platinum stocks as tariff-related uncertainty and a widening location premium encouraged higher metal inflows into the US. Investment demand growth offset declines in automotive and industrial demand. Meanwhile, total platinum supply fell 10% to 1,458 koz, reflecting the seasonally weak mine production quarter that could not be offset by a modest year-on-year recovery in recycling. This resulted in a Q1'25 deficit of 816 koz, the largest single quarterly deficit in six years.
Supply decline remains a prominent theme for full year 2025 with a 4% year-on-year drop in total supply to 6,999 koz forecast, the lowest level in five years. Demand is set to fall by 4% to 7,965 koz in 2025 as growth in jewellery and investment does not fully offset a decline in automotive and industrial demand. Nevertheless, this is 115 koz higher than our previous demand forecast, deepening the third successive annual deficit forecast for 2025 to 966 koz.
Mine supply to contract significantly in 2025
Total mining supply fell 13% year-on-year to 1,086 koz in Q1'25, the lowest quarterly output since Q2'20. With weakness across all major producing regions, except Russia, South Africa accounted for the bulk of the decline, experiencing unusually intense rainfall during the quarter, leading to a 10% year-on-year drop in refined output to 715 koz. The fall in total mining supply was partially offset by an increase in global recycling supply of 2% year-on-year to 372 koz. As a result, total supply fell 10% year-on-year to 1,458 koz in Q1'25.
The magnitude of the year-on-year decline in Q1'25 mining supply was largely the result of short-term disruptions. However, while some recovery is likely throughout the remainder of 2025, full year total mining supply is expected to reach just 5,426 koz (-6%), some 701 koz (11%) below the five-year pre-COVID average.
Global recycling is forecast to show a modest recovery in 2025, growing 3% year-on-year to 1,573 koz as the supply of spent autocatalysts improves slightly. Overall, total supply is expected to decline by 4% in 2025 to 6,999 koz.
Above ground stocks are forecast to decline by 31% to 2,160 koz in 2025, resulting in only three months of demand cover.
Jewellery demand recovery sustained with a 5% increase expected in 2025
In Q1'25 platinum jewellery demand increased across all regions, except for India, growing 9% to 533 koz.
For full year 2025, jewellery demand is expected to continue the recovery seen in 2024, increasing by 5% year-on-year to 2,114 koz, as platinum continues to benefit from its price discount relative to gold. Strong gains are anticipated in China, up 15% year-on-year to 474 koz, while European demand is forecast to grow 7% to reach a record high. North America will also see growth (8%), while demand in India is due to soften, falling 10% year-on-year to 240 koz due to reduced exports amid US tariff uncertainty.
Automotive demand remains resilient despite market uncertainty
Set against the context of uncertainty as US tariff policy continues to evolve, automotive demand for platinum proved relatively resilient in Q1'25, declining by 4% year-on-year to 753 koz.
This resilience is reflected in the current full year outlook, with automotive demand expected to fall only 2% to 3,052 koz (some 11% above the prior five-year average). Against a backdrop of slower-than-expected battery electric vehicle growth and with demand from light-duty vehicle production flat, a 2% increase in demand from non-road vehicles is expected to partially offset a 7% decline in heavy-duty automotive demand.
Investment demand robust in 2025 boosted by a 48% increase in China bar and coin demand
In Q1'25 investment demand for platinum rose 28% quarter-on-quarter to 461 koz. This was driven principally by a sharp rise in exchange held platinum stocks as tariff-related uncertainty and a widening location premium encouraged higher metal inflows into the US, with some 361 koz of inflows during the quarter. Bar and coin demand also increased, rising 17% year-on-year to 70 koz as Chinese buying of platinum investment bars smaller than 500g reached a record high, growing 140% year-on-year to 31 koz and offsetting declines in other regions.
Total investment is set to reduce by 2% year-on-year to 688 koz in 2025 as the exceptional exchange inflows seen in the first quarter moderate. Notably, bar and coin investment is forecast to strengthen by 30% to 252 koz, driven by 48% growth in China and a return to growth in the North American market (+18%). Growth in bars of or above 500g in China will continue its upward trajectory to reach a forecast 186 koz (+15%).
Industrial demand to contract as cyclical glass capacity expansions taper
In Q1'25 industrial platinum demand fell by 22% year-on-year to 527 koz. Quarterly gains in hydrogen (+159% to 21 koz), petroleum (+25% to 49 koz) medical (+3% to 77 koz) and electrical (+3% to 23 koz) could not outweigh an 81% reduction in glass demand on a cyclical decline in capacity additions.
Industrial demand is forecast to decline by 15% in full year 2025 to 2,111 koz, largely due to anticipated reductions in glass demand which is expected to decline by 58% to 289 koz. Chemical demand is expected to fall by 6% to 580 koz, offsetting gains in petroleum (+25% to 198 koz), hydrogen (+35% to 59 koz), medical (+4% to 320 koz) and electrical (+2% to 95 koz).
Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, comments:
"The platinum market is in structural deficit, irrespective of the uncertainties posed by today's geopolitics. We are seeing that platinum's diversity of demand provides a significant degree of resilience even as the US government's new approach to tariff policy starts to take effect. At the same time, it is widely recognised that platinum mine supply continues to face downside risks.
"The strategic importance of platinum group metals to the US automotive industry may have spared the metals from US tariffs so far in 2025. With over 300 koz of excess platinum stocks yet to be removed from NYMEX-approved warehouses suggesting that market fears of further tariff risks remain, the broader impact of trade restrictions softening global economic activity is highly unlikely to materially reduce the 966 koz deficit forecast for 2025.
"Market tightness in this third consecutive year of deficit does not appear to be reflected in the platinum price, but it is reflected in elevated platinum lease rates, which have the effect of encouraging the lending of platinum to end users. This acts as a temporary source of platinum supply until such time as the borrowers must buy metal in the market to return to lenders to close out the loans. It remains to be seen whether sufficient platinum will be available at that time at current prices."
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