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News.com.au
2 days ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Ten Bagger: Platinum is showing green shoots – is it time to get in early?
Welcome to Ten-Bagger, where Lowell Resources Fund chief investment officer John Forwood gives us his take on a sector of the ASX resources market full of value. This month, John looks at the turnaround in platinum and palladium prices. Running at massive deficits hasn't been enough to keep platinum and palladium prices from scraping along deep into the cost curve over the past two years, a massive reversal of fortune from the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when concerns about Russia's control of the palladium market sent prices soaring. But a number of analysts and fund managers have kept tabs on the commodities known as platinum group metals – principally platinum, palladium and rhodium – in recent months. With prices well below the cost base of most miners in South Africa – the world's top producer by a wide margin – it's seemed logical that something would have to give. The metals have dual uses. They are, like gold and silver, precious metals purchased for investments and crafted into jewellery. But their key demand driver is from the catalytic converters that reduce emissions from internal combustion engine and hybrid motor vehicles. Carmakers have been able to rely on stockpiles as prices have tumbled. But supply-demand metrics are turning increasingly in favour of miners. The World Platinum Investment Council said in May that supply this year will fall 4% to ~7Moz, delivering a platinum deficit of 966,000oz, a number that's expanded by 115,000oz from forecasts just three months. Supply will drop to a five-year low, leading to a third straight year of deficits. Now, the worm could well be turning for the price. "The platinum price has jumped up by around at least 15% in the last month or so," Lowell Resources Fund (ASX:LRT) CIO John Forwood said. "It's gone from the mid-900 US dollars an ounce mark to ~US$1224/oz." Market moves Now at its highest point in four years, platinum prices have surged to a more than 30% YTD gain. Palladium has followed, up 19% to US$1087.50/oz. That's a far cry from the US$3400/oz seen post Russia's invasion. On current trends, Forwood says some reports have above ground stockpiles of platinum depleting in as little as two years. "We are seeing sort of a deceleration, if you like, in the move away from ICE vehicles," Forwood said. " 2025 has been the year of the hybrid. The demand from auto-cats for PGMs has been stronger than expected. But also, I think there's been a lot of investment demand for platinum and that's what's really pushed the price in the last month or two." Green shoots for the precious metals have investor eyes turning to the next stocks on the production front. "We're definitely seeing some good market moves in the price, and that's translated massively into Southern Palladium's share price, which got down to around some 20 cents, and now it's at 50 odd cents," Forwood told Stockhead. Southern Palladium (ASX:SPD) listed in 2022 to raise capital for its Bengwenyama mine in South Africa, one of a handful of undeveloped platinum reef operations in South Africa, where it holds a 70% stake alongside local Black Economic Empowerment partners. A PFS last year posted an ore reserve of 6.29Moz at 6.17g/t 6E PGMs. It proposed a 29-year mine life delivering 400,000ozpa of PGM, with life of mine all in sustaining costs of US$800/oz, generating a 50% margin at just US$1200/oz Pt, US$1100/oz Pd and US$6200/oz Rh. SPD announced a trading halt on Tuesday to raise fresh cash, unsurprising after a 120% one-month gain. Fresh blood It's little secret the platinum sector is crying out for some fresh blood, with historic operations facing cost escalation and declining grade. Deficits are projected until the end of the WPIC's forecast period in 2029. Forwood said South Africa's mining industry, the engine room for the platinum market, was a 'sunset industry'. A historic mining Mecca, it's become increasingly difficult to operate there as public infrastructure fails. A number of producers in the PGM industry are lossmaking, but are only motivated to stay open by their social licence and government pressure. "A number the PGM shafts on the Bushveld in South Africa are actually well and truly uneconomic at the moment and arguably being kept open for non-economic reasons to maintain employment," Forwood said. "So at some point, unless there's a dramatic shift in the price, those shafts are going to have to close or you're going to see a very big change in price and that's probably more likely because that will address the supply-demand deficit." SPD has had a large impending capital bill weighing on its share price, a potential US$452m in peak funding according to its PFS. But Forwood said it had been working on alternative solutions including funding arrangements and staged development. His other PGM pick is Talon Metals. Listed on the TSX, Talon holds the Tamarack JV in Minnesota with non other than mining giant Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO). The project hosts an indicated resource of 8.6Mt at 1.73% nickel and 0.92% copper and inferred resource of 8.5Mt at 0.83% Ni and 0.55% Cu. Assays from a revisited historic drill hole have lifted the lid on the deposit's growth potential, coming in at 34.9m grading a ludicrous 28.88% NiEq or 57.76% CuEq. That included 8.65g/t palladium, 16.31g/t platinum, 9.18g/t gold and 42.92g/t silver. Bonkers. "You wouldn't believe it, the grades are enormous. That's not just a PGM project, but the PGM grades on their own are more than economic," Forwood said. "When you add the nickel, copper, cobalt, gold, silver to it, it's just a stunning result. "Lowell's been a shareholder in that company for a number of years now. I'm very pleased to see some of these results coming back." Other PGM stocks on the ASX include Future Metals (ASX:FME), the owner of the Panton project in WA, up 90% off a low base, Julimar project owner Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN), which is up around 26% YTD, and Implats' Zimbabwean subsidiary Zimplats Holdings (ASX:ZIM), the sole operating miner on the ASX, up 22% YTD.
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Platinum Prices Increase After Long Slump: More Gains for ETFs?
Platinum prices are gaining momentum after years of underperformance. On May 21, 2025, spot platinum rose by $18 an ounce to $1,076, following a 5% hike on May 20, per Bloomberg data, as quoted on This move suggests a breakout from its prolonged trading range of $900-$1,100 an ounce, wherein it hovered for the major part of the last four years. Despite the recent rally, platinum continues to lag significantly behind gold. Gold has jumped 36% over the past 12 months. In comparison, platinum has risen just 2% in that same timeframe, making it look relatively undervalued. Investor interest is being bolstered by a recent bullish report from the World Platinum Investment Council. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a 6% decline in mined output this year to 5.4 million ounces, with the total supply, including recycling, at about seven million ounces. Although total demand is expected to dip 4% to eight million ounces, that figure still exceeds supply. This imbalance is likely to continue in 2025, compelling the market to tap the shrinking above-ground inventories. Bob Minter, director of investment strategy at Aberdeen Investments, said, 'The fundamentals are finally getting reflected in the price.' His firm manages the Abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF PPLT, the largest U.S. platinum-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) with $1 billion in assets, as quoted in the above-mentioned source. With gold prices out of reach for many, platinum is emerging as a more affordable alternative. Cheaper valuation than gold and supply constraints should boost the metal further. Gold trades at around $2,200 more than platinum. Compared with gold, platinum is a much smaller market. The annual platinum supply totals about seven million ounces, while the gold supply exceeds 100 million ounces. This makes platinum more sensitive to changes in investment flows. In the first quarter of 2025, investment demand for platinum skyrocketed 300% to 461,000 ounces, and jewelry demand grew 9%, particularly driven by Chinese consumers. Platinum can act as a good substitute for white gold in items like engagement rings, making it attractive amid high gold prices. The PPLT ETF hit a new 52-week high on May 21, 2025, and has marked an 18% gain so far in 2025. It holds physical platinum and charges a 0.6% annual fee. Other investment options include the $55-million GraniteShares Platinum Trust PLTM and the $200-million Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium ETF SPPP. The PLTM ETF, too, hit a 52-week high on May 21, 2025. A key headwind for platinum is the decline in automotive demand due to electric vehicles (EVs), which do not use catalytic converters — one of the main applications for platinum and palladium. However, hybrid vehicles, which are gaining popularity, often use platinum, providing a the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT): ETF Research Reports Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust (SPPP): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
Mid East Info
20-05-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
As gold pauses, is platinum ready to shine for investors? – Saxo Bank MENA - Middle East Business News and Information
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank In a recent update, we touched base on platinum, an almost forgotten semi-industrial metal that, for years now, has been struggling for momentum, in the process being boxed into a tightening range, which sooner or later will yield a breakout. Platinum, primarily mined in South Africa while attracting most of its demand from the production of catalytic converters and laboratory equipment, trades historically cheap, not least compared with gold, which, supported by strong central bank demand since 2022, has seen its value over platinum rise to hit a peak a month ago of 3.6 ounces of platinum to one ounce of gold. Since then, the ratio has narrowed to around 3.2, with platinum gaining 5% while gold has lost close to 6%, with the white metal benefiting from the 90-day US-China trade truce, brightening the economic outlook, while gold, for the same reason, has seen its haven appeal deflate, triggering some profit-taking. Eventually, the narrowing trading range—which is currently being challenged to the upside—will yield a breakout, and only then are we likely to see whether demand from technically focused traders looking for fresh momentum will be enough to push prices higher, or whether gold's appeal as the ultimate safe haven remains too strong. Having traded sideways for the past decade, averaging USD 955 per troy ounce during this time, a change will require a breakout, and for that to happen, we are focusing on resistance around USD 1,012, which is being tested and challenged today, and ultimately on the shown downtrend from 2008, which this May on a monthly close is located around USD 1,025 The positive sentiment being supported by fundamental news after the World Platinum Investment Council, in their latest Platinum Quarterly report, forecast a deepening market deficit with supply outstripping demand by close to one million troy ounces, marks the third successive year where above-ground inventories are being drawn in order to meet demand from the automotive sector, and not least a resurgence in Chinese demand for jewellery, bars, and coins, culminating last month when Chinese jewellers and investors imported the largest amount in a year, due to its relative stability and mentioned cheapness compared to gold. In the meantime, speculators in the COMEX futures market, which according to CTFC's widest definition used in their weekly Commitment of Traders report, are Managed Money accounts such as hedge funds, and Other Reportables unsurprisingly, given the lack of direction—continue to trade platinum with a neutral to a small long bias. Meanwhile, longer-term focused investors using platinum-backed ETFs registered in the West currently hold 3.18 million troy ounces according to data compiled by Bloomberg, up from an April 2024 low at 2.89 million, but well below the 2021 peak near 4 million ounces. Finally, note that London Platinum Week 2025, organised by the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM), is being held this week, from May 20 – 22, and it may lead to some additional attention, as it brings together stakeholders such as mining companies, refiners, traders, analysts, and service providers to discuss industry developments and future strategies.
Cision Canada
19-05-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Platinum market deficit deepens: third consecutive deficit in 2025, now expected at 966 koz
Forecast total supply in 2025 is the lowest in five years, declining by 4% to 6,999 koz Resurgence in China platinum jewellery demand drives a forecast 5% increase in global jewellery demand this year Automotive demand resilient despite market uncertainty; forecast 2% reduction to 3,052 koz for full year 2025 Robust investment demand continues, forecast at 688 koz in 2025, bolstered by strong bar and coin demand in China Above ground stocks to fall to 2,160 koz in 2025, representing only three months of demand cover Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, comments: "The platinum market is in structural deficit, irrespective of the uncertainties posed by today's geopolitics. We are seeing that platinum's diversity of demand provides a significant degree of resilience even as the US government's new approach to tariff policy starts to take effect. At the same time, it is widely recognised that platinum mine supply continues to face downside risks." LONDON, May 19, 2025 /CNW/ -- The World Platinum Investment Council - WPIC® - today publishes its Platinum Quarterly for the first quarter of 2025 with a revised full year 2025 forecast. Global demand in Q1'25 recorded a 10% year-on-year increase to 2,274 koz. This was due to strong investment demand, driven principally by a sharp rise in exchange held platinum stocks as tariff-related uncertainty and a widening location premium encouraged higher metal inflows into the US. Investment demand growth offset declines in automotive and industrial demand. Meanwhile, total platinum supply fell 10% to 1,458 koz, reflecting the seasonally weak mine production quarter that could not be offset by a modest year-on-year recovery in recycling. This resulted in a Q1'25 deficit of 816 koz, the largest single quarterly deficit in six years. Supply decline remains a prominent theme for full year 2025 with a 4% year-on-year drop in total supply to 6,999 koz forecast, the lowest level in five years. Demand is set to fall by 4% to 7,965 koz in 2025 as growth in jewellery and investment does not fully offset a decline in automotive and industrial demand. Nevertheless, this is 115 koz higher than our previous demand forecast, deepening the third successive annual deficit forecast for 2025 to 966 koz. Mine supply to contract significantly in 2025 Total mining supply fell 13% year-on-year to 1,086 koz in Q1'25, the lowest quarterly output since Q2'20. With weakness across all major producing regions, except Russia, South Africa accounted for the bulk of the decline, experiencing unusually intense rainfall during the quarter, leading to a 10% year-on-year drop in refined output to 715 koz. The fall in total mining supply was partially offset by an increase in global recycling supply of 2% year-on-year to 372 koz. As a result, total supply fell 10% year-on-year to 1,458 koz in Q1'25. The magnitude of the year-on-year decline in Q1'25 mining supply was largely the result of short-term disruptions. However, while some recovery is likely throughout the remainder of 2025, full year total mining supply is expected to reach just 5,426 koz (-6%), some 701 koz (11%) below the five-year pre-COVID average. Global recycling is forecast to show a modest recovery in 2025, growing 3% year-on-year to 1,573 koz as the supply of spent autocatalysts improves slightly. Overall, total supply is expected to decline by 4% in 2025 to 6,999 koz. Above ground stocks are forecast to decline by 31% to 2,160 koz in 2025, resulting in only three months of demand cover. Jewellery demand recovery sustained with a 5% increase expected in 2025 In Q1'25 platinum jewellery demand increased across all regions, except for India, growing 9% to 533 koz. For full year 2025, jewellery demand is expected to continue the recovery seen in 2024, increasing by 5% year-on-year to 2,114 koz, as platinum continues to benefit from its price discount relative to gold. Strong gains are anticipated in China, up 15% year-on-year to 474 koz, while European demand is forecast to grow 7% to reach a record high. North America will also see growth (8%), while demand in India is due to soften, falling 10% year-on-year to 240 koz due to reduced exports amid US tariff uncertainty. Automotive demand remains resilient despite market uncertainty Set against the context of uncertainty as US tariff policy continues to evolve, automotive demand for platinum proved relatively resilient in Q1'25, declining by 4% year-on-year to 753 koz. This resilience is reflected in the current full year outlook, with automotive demand expected to fall only 2% to 3,052 koz (some 11% above the prior five-year average). Against a backdrop of slower-than-expected battery electric vehicle growth and with demand from light-duty vehicle production flat, a 2% increase in demand from non-road vehicles is expected to partially offset a 7% decline in heavy-duty automotive demand. Investment demand robust in 2025 boosted by a 48% increase in China bar and coin demand In Q1'25 investment demand for platinum rose 28% quarter-on-quarter to 461 koz. This was driven principally by a sharp rise in exchange held platinum stocks as tariff-related uncertainty and a widening location premium encouraged higher metal inflows into the US, with some 361 koz of inflows during the quarter. Bar and coin demand also increased, rising 17% year-on-year to 70 koz as Chinese buying of platinum investment bars smaller than 500g reached a record high, growing 140% year-on-year to 31 koz and offsetting declines in other regions. Total investment is set to reduce by 2% year-on-year to 688 koz in 2025 as the exceptional exchange inflows seen in the first quarter moderate. Notably, bar and coin investment is forecast to strengthen by 30% to 252 koz, driven by 48% growth in China and a return to growth in the North American market (+18%). Growth in bars of or above 500g in China will continue its upward trajectory to reach a forecast 186 koz (+15%). Industrial demand to contract as cyclical glass capacity expansions taper In Q1'25 industrial platinum demand fell by 22% year-on-year to 527 koz. Quarterly gains in hydrogen (+159% to 21 koz), petroleum (+25% to 49 koz) medical (+3% to 77 koz) and electrical (+3% to 23 koz) could not outweigh an 81% reduction in glass demand on a cyclical decline in capacity additions. Industrial demand is forecast to decline by 15% in full year 2025 to 2,111 koz, largely due to anticipated reductions in glass demand which is expected to decline by 58% to 289 koz. Chemical demand is expected to fall by 6% to 580 koz, offsetting gains in petroleum (+25% to 198 koz), hydrogen (+35% to 59 koz), medical (+4% to 320 koz) and electrical (+2% to 95 koz). Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, comments: "The platinum market is in structural deficit, irrespective of the uncertainties posed by today's geopolitics. We are seeing that platinum's diversity of demand provides a significant degree of resilience even as the US government's new approach to tariff policy starts to take effect. At the same time, it is widely recognised that platinum mine supply continues to face downside risks. "The strategic importance of platinum group metals to the US automotive industry may have spared the metals from US tariffs so far in 2025. With over 300 koz of excess platinum stocks yet to be removed from NYMEX-approved warehouses suggesting that market fears of further tariff risks remain, the broader impact of trade restrictions softening global economic activity is highly unlikely to materially reduce the 966 koz deficit forecast for 2025. "Market tightness in this third consecutive year of deficit does not appear to be reflected in the platinum price, but it is reflected in elevated platinum lease rates, which have the effect of encouraging the lending of platinum to end users. This acts as a temporary source of platinum supply until such time as the borrowers must buy metal in the market to return to lenders to close out the loans. It remains to be seen whether sufficient platinum will be available at that time at current prices." Disclaimer Neither the World Platinum Investment Council nor Metals Focus is authorised by any regulatory authority to give investment advice. Nothing within this document is intended or should be construed as investment advice or offering to sell or advising to buy any securities or financial instruments and appropriate professional advice should always be sought before making any investment. For further information, please visit
