Israel's war in Iran: The choice of war and its risks
As it has come under a massive campaign of Israeli bombardments since Friday, June 13, the Tehran regime can fully grasp the extent of its isolation. This regime, which has made itself widely detestable, is above all paying the price for its choice to enrich uranium to levels that are only compatible with a military program, despite its denials. It is Israel's determination to put a definitive end to this program that has earned it the explicit or tacit support of many Western countries.
For Tehran, the Israeli offensive has come at the worst possible time. Previous strikes and reprisals in 2024 exposed the limitations of its arsenal. The " axis of resistance," which had formed its main defensive shield, was significantly weakened after the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah was decimated in the autumn. This, in turn, triggered the fall of Bashar al-Assad, who, during the devastating Syrian civil war, had become dependent on the Iranian regime. After years of repression of its people, strangled by international sanctions linked to its nuclear program, the regime in Iran can hardly count on a patriotic reflex of unity.
Another path, a diplomatic one, was pursued in the past, with the conclusion, in 2015, of a deal supported by a broad international coalition patiently put together by Washington. Iran had agreed to limit its nuclear ambitions in exchange for regional reintegration and the lifting of sanctions. That deal, criticized by warmongers, could have changed the course of events, had it not been buried by Donald Trump during his first term. The US president hastily tried to reach a new compromise with Tehran upon returning to the White House, hoping to avoid being drawn into another regional conflict.
Because the Israeli gamble brings with it many uncertainties beyond the current escalation. The first is over the war's objectives: In calling on the Iranian people to rise up, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be tying the destruction of the nuclear program to regime change, in a region where similar interventions have ended in disaster. The effectiveness of Israeli bombings also remains to be proven, not least because they could push the Iranian regime, should it withstand this humiliation, to resume its program clandestinely, cutting ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has so far been able to measure its progress.
The path of force and disregard for law raises another question: What does Israel intend to do with its new status as the region's military superpower? The desire to reshape the Middle East according to its own interests only is already sparking the deepest concerns. First of all in Gaza, where ongoing bombings without any political horizon feed chaos. Then in Lebanon and Syria, where Israel's relentless strikes have undermined the fragile process of reviving institutions in Beirut and the perilous transition underway in Damascus.
It is essential to resist the intoxication of power and to recognize the responsibilities it entails. Otherwise, Israel will lose a unique opportunity to break the cycle of wars that has held the Middle East captive until now.
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