FedEx (FDX) Is About to Report Q4 Earnings Tomorrow. Here's What to Expect
Delivery and logistics giant FedEx Corp. (FDX) is scheduled to announce its results for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2025 after the market closes on Tuesday, June 24. FDX stock has declined about 20% year-to-date due to weak performance in recent quarters amid macro challenges and tariff uncertainty. Wall Street expects FedEx to report Q4 FY25 EPS (earnings per share) of $5.88, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth.
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Meanwhile, FedEx's Q4 FY25 revenue is expected to decline by 1.4% to $21.79 billion compared to the prior-year quarter. The estimated rise in earnings despite lower revenue reflects the benefits from the company's cost reduction initiatives under the Drive program.
As part of its restructuring efforts, FedEx is spinning off its LTL (less-than-truckload) freight shipment business into a separate publicly traded company to focus on its core delivery business. The spinoff is expected to be completed by June 2026.
Unfortunately, ahead of the upcoming earnings report, FedEx's founder, Frederick Smith, died on Saturday.
Analysts' Views Ahead of FedEx's Q4 Earnings
Heading into results, Wolfe Research analyst Scott Group lowered the price target for FedEx stock to $253 from $258, while reiterating a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst noted that the company has underperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) so far in 2025. Group slightly reduced his Q4 FY25 EPS estimate to $5.88, bringing the FY25 EPS to the low end of management's guidance range at $18.00.
Meanwhile, the analyst raised his EPS estimate for FY26 by 3% to $18.50, which he highlighted is still 7% below the consensus estimate. Group expects moderating headwinds from the lost USPS contract and airfreight pricing pressure. He anticipates that the benefits from the new Amazon (AMZN) contract will largely be offset by the loss of volumes associated with the de minimis exemption.
Additionally, Stephens analyst Jack Atkins slashed the price target for FedEx stock to $280 from $300 and reiterated a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst stated that he again lowered his estimates to reflect the ongoing macro headwinds for FedEx's parcel and LTL businesses. He noted that commentary at recent industry conferences indicates lower-than-expected international business. Also, while core U.S. pricing is stable, it could continue to be impacted by trade-down, said Atkins. Further, peers' LTL mid-quarter updates suggest sub-seasonal trends through May.
The analyst said that he will focus on updates on the recent Amazon business win and leadership updates following the LTL spinoff. While the macro backdrop remains a challenge over the near term, Atkins expects continued savings from FedEx's DRIVE program in FY26 and an opportunity for value creation through the spinoff.
Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on FedEx's Q4 Earnings Report
Using TipRanks' Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don't worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about an 8.1% move in either direction in FDX stock in reaction to Q4 FY25 results.
Is FedEx Stock a Buy?
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on FedEx stock based on 11 Buys, three Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average FDX stock price forecast of $268.71 indicates a modest upside potential of about 19% from current levels.
FedEx recently announced a 5% increase in its annual dividend to $5.80 per share for Fiscal 2026. The company's quarterly dividend of $1.45 per share is payable on July 8, 2025. FDX stock's current dividend yield stands at 2.5%.
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