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This Trump Pick Could Get Dems' Support—and Then Aid Mass Deportations

This Trump Pick Could Get Dems' Support—and Then Aid Mass Deportations

Yahoo29-01-2025

The raids were sudden; thousands collected in sweeps across the country. To make full use of the media, photo ops were furnished and accounts given to make clear that those who were perceived as part of the invasion—whom the president had accused of poisoning the blood of our nation—were to be deported immediately. These countries, the president contended, didn't send us their best, instead filling our shores with 'multitudes of men of the lowest class' who were without advanced skills, potentially ,violent, and thus a danger to the public. They had to go in order to keep the rest of us safe, we were told.
At the same time, the president pushed back against civil rights advances, ordering an end to diversity in the federal government while openly courting terrorists and white supremacists.
It all took place a little over a hundred years ago under the presidency of Woodrow Wilson. The immigrant sweeps, said to target Bolsheviks and anarchists, were led by the zealous attorney general, A. Mitchell Palmer, and an eager subordinate at the Bureau of Investigation named J. Edgar Hoover. They would eventually net around ten thousand people. Yet the heroic efforts of one man, Louis Freeland Post, a genuine progressive who had fallen into his post as secretary of labor by pure happenstance, were largely responsible for thwarting Wilson's plan and reversing the vast majority of the arrests, leading eventually to only around 6 percent of those arrested actually being deported.
It's a safe bet that before today you had never heard of Louis Post. Similarly, if asked to name Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of labor, most people would be unable to identify Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the one-term congresswoman from Oregon who narrowly lost her reelection bid in a district that has swung back and forth in recent years.
This can be forgiven: Chavez-DeRemer, a rare Republican with fairly pro-union views, is known as a moderate in these intemperate times, and may in fact be Donald Trump's least controversial Cabinet appointee. She was one of only three Republicans to support President Joe Biden's PRO Act, which sought to expand worker protections and ease organizing efforts. She's also supported bipartisan legislation such as the Public Service Freedom to Negotiate Act, described as a bill intended to 'secure the rights of public employees to organize, act concertedly, and bargain collectively'; a bill to protect TSA workers; commonsense railroad safety legislation; and even efforts to enforce the proper labeling of compostable packaging, which sounds more like something that would come from a Democrat than a member of the GOP. But Chavez-DeRemer has been somewhat less forthcoming about her views on migrant workers and ICE enforcement. Democrats should thus bring a healthy dose of skepticism to her confirmation hearings.
Naturally, it's not hard to understand why her appointment to Trump's cabinet has been overshadowed by others, with media attention instead zeroing in on a new defense secretary in Pete Hegseth who possesses little in the way of experience and much in the way of accusations of alcoholism and abuse; on the candidacy of anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head Health and Human Services; and on the threats posed by Kash Patel, Trump's choice to head the FBI, whose 'enemies list' and accusations of a subversive 'Deep State' in government could impact the Justice Department for the next decade.
Chavez-DeRemer, by contrast, has won both enthusiastic support from Teamsters President Sean O'Brien and somewhat more cautious support from Democrats like Elizabeth Warren and Patty Murray, though neither has fully committed to a yes vote on her yet. Her confirmation hearings are unlikely to generate the intense scrutiny of nominees like RFK Jr, Hegseth, Patel, or Pam Bondi, Trump's loyalist attorney general pick who appears ready to do his bidding.
Yet Democratic senators will be committing a dereliction of their duties if they fail to press Chavez-DeRemer on her views, particularly in relation to immigration and cooperating with ICE raids on businesses. Already we're seeing ICE director Tom Homan carrying out Trump's promised raids, at times without warrants or notification to local leaders. These raids, much like the Palmer Raids before them, are less about a sincere effort to get violent offenders off the street. Instead, they are designed to strike fear into the larger law-abiding migrant populace, exaggerating the danger that population poses and using executive orders and a new theory of expansive presidential power granted by the Supreme Court to overcome legal hurdles. No regard is given to the disruptions that will be caused to families, businesses, and communities.
The parallels between the Wilson administration and today are not entirely analogous: For starters, while the raids conducted by Palmer and Hoover were often cruel, indiscriminate, and on shaky legal grounds, they were responding to some degree of legitimate violence, as politicians and businessmen around the country were being targeted by anarchist bombings. Even Palmer himself had been sent one that could've killed his ten-year-old daughter. The estimated 11-12 million undocumented workers here now, by contrast, are overwhelmingly nonviolent, and actually commit substantially fewer crimes than the average American.
It's also important to note that Post had more power to stop the injustices of his time than Chavez-DeRemer will have now, since it was the Department of Labor that oversaw deportations in Post's day. Yet there are some overlapping jurisdictional issues between Homeland Security and Labor, since it is the latter agency's mission to protect workers and to regulate workplace environments (OSHA, for instance, is part of the department).
These overlapping concerns have largely been governed by a series of memoranda that stipulate how the two departments will share information, work together on enforcement issues, handle data collection, et cetera. While Trump can override these agreements at any time, coordination between DHS and Labor will still be required for many of ICE's actions. Undoubtedly, the raids that Homan is conducting will result in more workers being detained. He'll also need to acquire information to help him in his appointed task, much of which may come from the Department of Labor. It is therefore imperative that we discern Chavez-DeRemer's views on these raids and her duties, as she understands them, to protect workers.
The former congresswoman has been somewhat circumspect so far. She supported the Dignity Act (or DIGNIDAD Act, as it's also known), a bipartisan effort that would've increased border security and required asylum cases to be settled in sixty days or less, but also would have extended work visas, allowed the Dreamers to stay in the U.S. (though without granting citizenship), and provided a path for those under 'temporary protective status,' or TPS, and classified as Deferred Enforced Departure immigrants to become lawful permanent residents. While some of the provisions were onerous – including having to pay back-taxes and restitution fees – the overall goal was to turn many undocumented migrants into legal residents.
Chavez-DeRemer has also acknowledged the inadequacy of our current immigration system and has pleaded for humane treatment of migrants, a critical factor now that Trump is making inhumane treatment the order of the day once again. In cosponsoring a bill with Democrats to create courts with jurisdictional power over migrant children, she said, 'It's no secret that our immigration system is riddled with serious flaws, including in the immigration court process. Unfortunately, the current process can result in children being left alone to fend for themselves. Although a number of problems are contributing to this crisis, we are a compassionate nation – and we should make needed improvements to ensure vulnerable children aren't abandoned in our immigration court system.'
This all sounds as if she might be the type to oppose the knock-down-drag-out tactics of Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and her bulldog Homan. Nevertheless, we've seen how differences with Trump and his acolytes on issues can suddenly evaporate – we don't have to look beyond his current vice president for an example.
Palmer based his authority to conduct his raids on the 1917 and 1918 Sedition Acts, intended to muffle dissent during World War I. The Laken Riley Act, passed with not only unanimous Republican support but also with 12 Democrats foolishly joining the GOP in the Senate and 46 doing so in the House, grants similarly extensive authority, permitting police to arrest someone if they're merely suspected, say, of stealing a can of soda and then giving them over to ICE to be deported if they're undocumented, with no due process. It essentially amounts to giving license to create a police state.
Any senator questioning Ms. Chavez-DeRemer, then, must ask her how she sees her role in either supporting or checking these efforts. Will she, for instance, work with ICE to detain workers – migrants and Americans – on suspicion of undocumented status? Will she share information on vulnerable Americans? What does she see as her responsibilities in this regard?
Democrats have gotten so used to bending over backwards for Republicans that they almost seem as if they're frozen in that position. The post-election period has been marked by a noticeable reluctance to take up any fight or even perform proper due diligence. One suspects they won't want to make Ms. Chavez-DeRemer's confirmation hearing one of the more contentious ones when there's so much else with which to contend. Yet we're seeing unprecedented actions by a president who believes in governance by fiat, and we cannot be passive and caught off-guard. We need to seek answers in any forum in which they might be elicited. Chavez-DeRemer's confirmation process may be more revelatory terrain than many imagine.

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‘A Total Sham': Michelle Obama's Nutrition Adviser Lets Loose on MAHA
‘A Total Sham': Michelle Obama's Nutrition Adviser Lets Loose on MAHA

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‘A Total Sham': Michelle Obama's Nutrition Adviser Lets Loose on MAHA

Before there was MAHA, there was Michelle. Anyone following the rise of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again movement can't help but recall former First Lady Michelle Obama's efforts to improve Americans' diets — and the vitriol she faced in response. Now, many of the same Republicans who skewered Michelle Obama as a 'nanny state' warrior have embraced the MAHA movement. To explore this head-spinning turn, I called up Sam Kass, the former White House chef under President Barack Obama and a food policy adviser wholed the first lady's 'Let's Move' initiative. Kass said he was happy to find common ground with Kennedy and his MAHA brigade where possible. But he argued Kennedy's HHS has done little to actually improve the health of the public so far, and was instead mostly taking steps that would do real damage, including by undermining the use of vaccines. Kass also warned potentially MAHA-curious food advocates against legitimizing the Trump administration by offering support for Kennedy. 'Those who are lending their voice for the things that they support are going to ultimately help enable outcomes that are going to be quite devastating for this country and for our kids,' he said in an interview with POLITICO Magazine. At the same time, Kass is not surprised with MAHA's growing popularity. In the 10-plus years since Kass left the White House, the issues of diet-related chronic disease haven't abated and Americans are more anxious about their health than ever. Wellness is a trillion-dollar industry, and MAHA influencers have filled the gap left by Democrats. 'The Democratic Party has absolutely blundered this issue,' he said. 'We're getting what we deserve here in some ways.' This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. How do you square the earlier conservative criticism of the 'Let's Move' initiative with the rise of MAHA? Are you surprised by the seeming contradiction? I think most of that is because Republicans are fearful of President Trump. And therefore, if he is putting somebody in a position of great power and backing him, there's a huge part of the party that's going to go along with whatever that may be. I don't think this is actually about the Republican Party taking this up. This is actually about a Democrat, traditionally, who had built up a pretty strong following on these issues, and decided to join forces with President Trump. It's not like any of these ideas are coming from the GOP platform. This is an RFK-led effort that they're now supporting. So are they hypocrites for that? Certainly. But I welcome Republican support on trying to genuinely improve the health of the nation. Frankly, if we had had that for the last 20 years, I think that cultural retention would be far better. The reality, though, is what they're actually doing I don't think is going to have any positive impact, or very little. Even what they're saying is problematic on some levels, but what they're doing is a far cry from anything that's going to create the health outcomes this country needs. When you say that, do you mean banning soda from SNAP or the food dyes issue? Are there specific things that come to mind? It's a long list. There's the critique that MAHA brings at the highest level, that chronic disease has exploded in our country. Nobody can refute that, and what we're eating is a big driver of poor health outcomes on many different levels. That is absolutely true. What we grow, how we're growing it, and what's being made out of it is quite literally killing people. That is something that First Lady Michelle Obama said way back when. I've been saying it for a couple of decades. After that, everything falls apart in my mind. We can start with food dyes as the biggest announcement they made thus far. I'm all for getting food dyes out of food. There's just not a basis of evidence that most of the ones that are being used are actually the drivers of many of these health conditions. It was reported that they were banning food dyes. Sadly, what they did was a total sham. It was a farce of an event. There was no policy at all that was announced. There was no guidance, there was no regulatory proposal, there wasn't even a request for information. There was absolutely nothing put forward to revoke the approvals of these dyes. And the reason I believe is that to revoke an approval, you have to show that it's harming the public health. That's what we did for trans fats. Trans fats had been approved for consumption. There was plenty of evidence to show that that food was really driving death and disease in the country, and we banned it through a regulatory mechanism. I could not fathom making an announcement like that without actually having a real policy to put in place. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry about what they did. Also, you see a bunch of the influencers holding up bags of Fruit Loops and saying, 'In Europe or Canada, these have no [synthetic] food dyes and ours do.' But the fact of the matter is Fruit Loops aren't good for you either way. Part of the danger of RFK is he keeps talking about gold standard science and rebooting our public policy and science. The reality is he's doing the exact opposite. He's going to fast food restaurants, touting them on national television as the head of Health and Human Services, [saying that] a cheeseburger and french fries is good for you now because it's cooked in beef fat which is just the most insane thing on literally every single level. It has absolutely no basis in science. We're focusing on issues that are absolutely not going to make an iota of difference in public health. It's absolutely shocking. They have a platform that is fear-based on certain issues, like these food dyes or seed oils, which are absolutely not addressing the core of what we're eating and the core of what's really harming our health. The problem is the fries and the cheeseburger. It's not the oil that it's fried in. It's actually quite scary to me to see what's playing out. Why do you think the politics of food have changed in the years since you were in the White House, and why do you think MAHA ideas have such appeal? I don't exactly know for sure. In the age of social media, the thing that gets the algorithms the most activity is more extreme views. I think people are very vulnerable to very compelling, very scientifically sounding narratives that [MAHA influencers] all have, based on one study here or another study there, that can weave a narrative of fear. It's not like food dyes are good, I'm happy to see them go. But you get people scared of what they're eating to the point where people stop eating vegetables because they're worried about the pesticides, which is just not good for their health. This fear is definitely taking hold. I think it's because the mediums on which this information travels are exacerbating that fear. You already mentioned the food dye announcement and why that was concerning to you. What are some of the other actions that you think aren't necessarily achieving the stated goals? If you step back and start to look at what actions have actually been taken, what you're actually seeing is a full-on assault on science throughout HHS. You're seeing a complete gutting of NIH, which funds much of the research needed to understand what in hyper-processed foods is undermining people's health and how to actually identify those correlations so you can regulate it very aggressively. You're seeing the complete gutting or elimination of departments within CDC and FDA that oversee the safety of our food. Food toxicologists have been fired. There's a department in CDC that's in charge of assessing chronic health and environmental exposures to toxins. Those offices have been eliminated. The idea that somehow you're going to be more aggressively regulating based on the best science, while you're absolutely wholesale cutting scientific research and gutting the people who are in charge of overseeing the very industry that you're trying to clamp down on is a joke. Then look at the 'big, beautiful bill' that is being supported by this administration, and it's catastrophic to the public health of the United States of America. Eight million people are going to lose access to health care. Three million plus are going to lose SNAP assistance. Then we can get into USDA and EPA. Everybody's got to remember that the number one threat to the public health of the United States of America is climate change. If we continue on this path of pulling back every regulatory effort that's been made to try to transition our society to a much more sustainable, lower-carbon world, that's also preparing itself to deal with the volatility that's coming from the climate, we're not going to have food to eat. This idea that you're going to have big announcements about food dyes and Fruit Loops, while you completely roll back every effort to prepare our agricultural system and our food system to deal with climate change, you're gaslighting the American public. Have you spoken to the former first lady about MAHA at all? Not in any kind of depth. Have you ever been in touch with Kennedy? Have you ever talked to him about these issues? He's very close to a number of people I'm good friends with, but no, I have not. You noted Kennedy used to be a Democrat. His issues — his opposition to pesticides, his support for healthy nutrition, with all the caveats that we just discussed — these were Democratic issues. Now, this MAHA coalition helped Trump win the White House. Why do you think Democrats have ceded this terrain? The Democratic Party has absolutely blundered this issue. These are kitchen table issues. Our very well-being, our ability to eat food that's not harming ourselves and our kids, is fundamental to life on planet Earth and what it means to have a vibrant society. The fact that Democrats, much to my chagrin, definitely not because of lack of trying, have not taken this issue up with great effort over the last 15 years is shameful. We're getting what we deserve here in some ways. I'm deeply critical of Democrats, with some exceptions. Sen. Cory Booker has been amazing on these issues. [Former Sen.] Jon Tester is also great. But it was never part of the platform, and it absolutely always should have been. If there's some common ground to be found with Republicans, then great. We could get a lot done. But we can't just turn over the keys to this issue to people who are not serious. When you worked in the Obama White House, you pushed better nutrition labeling, active living, bans on unhealthy foods in school meals and trans fat. The recent MAHA report pointed the finger at similar programs for chronic illness. Is that a place where you and MAHA advocates are on the same page, and how do you balance that with the concerns you've raised? There's no clean answer to that. We largely, not entirely, share the same critique when it comes to food. Vaccines are another thing which are important to also talk about. People are trying to pick the issue that they like and can get around and pretend like the rest isn't happening. It would be great if we got food dyes out, but it would pale in comparison to if he continues down the path to undermine vaccines as the foundation of public health and people start dying, like they are, with measles. That is not even close to a trade. For all of my food friends who read this, or everybody in policy who are like, 'Oh yeah, I can work with him on this issue, but I'm going to turn a blind eye to that,' that doesn't work. That's going to lead to devastating outcomes. On the report, I share the general critique of the problem. I spent my life saying those things and working on these issues. That's the easy part. What matters is what you do about it. How do you actually change what people are eating, and what is it going to take to really put the country on a different trajectory when it comes to health? So far, I've seen absolutely no indication that the issues that they're focused on are going to have any meaningful or measurable impact on public health. Frankly, there's many other things that I think are going to be extremely detrimental. We will see. We're only a few months in. I could, depending on what happens, have a different perspective in six months or 12 months. RFK has blamed the food industry for Americans' poor health. He's argued that government institutions are overwrought with corporate influence. Do you think he's right? And what do you think about RFK's approach to trying to curb corporate influence? I'm all for curbing corporate influence. I had some big fights with industry. I won some of them, and sometimes I got my ass kicked. It's the nature of Washington when you're threatening the basic interests of an industry. What's stunning to me is that the food industry so far has been silent. They haven't done anything to fight back, which says to me that they're not feeling threatened yet. I think they're waiting to see what's going to happen. I'm sure they're doing some stuff in the background, but this is nothing like what we were dealing with. I agree that we should put the public's best interest first, not succumb to industry influence. I think the way that RFK talks about it is a real overstatement down a very dark conspiracy theory. The idea that JAMA and the American Medical Association and the New England Journal are just like corporate journals that just put corporate, completely distorted research out for the sake of making profits, it's just not serious. He starts to discredit the very institutions, like HHS, that you actually need to do the work to rein in industry. The way that industry does make inroads is that they fund a lot of research. If you want to reduce industry influence, you should dramatically increase [government] investment in funding of scientific research on agriculture and climate change, on food and nutrition. One of the biggest fights in the Obama era was over stricter nutrition standards for school lunches. The administration won some of those battles, but quite a few children still have obesity, according to the latest data. Is there anything you wish the Obama administration had done differently? Are there things policymakers should be doing differently? School nutrition is just one part of a young person's diet. You're not going to solve kids' health issues just through school nutrition, but obviously it's a huge lever to pull. If we really want to make progress, you have to look much more holistically at the food environment that people are living in. This is generational work. It's going to take literally decades of work to shift, not just the policies, but our culture, our businesses, to change how people are eating. I think the one thing we missed would have been a much stricter restriction on sugar across the board. We had it for drinks,, but we didn't [apply it across the board], and that was a miss. We should have pushed harder on sugar. I think the policy was a really important start. It can always be improved and strengthened. Both the first Trump administration and this one are looking to roll back some of that. The thing that we have to not forget — and this is true for schools, and certainly true for SNAP and WIC — is the biggest problem is not enough money for these programs. I started doing a lot of work on finding ways to restrict sugary drinks as an example from the SNAP program. But if you want to do that and actually get the health outcomes you need, you need to also increase the total dollar amount that people have so they can purchase healthier food. Part of the reason why people are drinking these things is they're the cheapest available drink. Coke is cheaper than water sometimes. RFK recently called sugar 'poison.' Do you agree with that? One of their tactics to obfuscate truth in science is dosage, right? The amount that we're consuming matters. If you had a birthday cake on your birthday and you have a cookie — my kids eat a cookie, they're not dying, they're not being poisoned to death. They're fine. I think the problem is the amount of sugar we're consuming and the sizes of the portions we have. It's the cumulative amount of sugar. It's probably technically not exactly the right word, poison. But I don't take issue with that. I think the levels of sugar consumption for young people are deeply alarming and are absolutely going to drive preventable death and disease for millions and millions of people. It already is and will continue to do so. It is a very serious problem. But what do you do? I can't wait to see the policy proposals here. It's a tough problem to solve. It is not a problem that can be solved overnight, and it's going to take a very comprehensive effort to really shift the amount of sugar we're consuming, but it should be the goal of this administration. They should work very hard at it in a very serious and science-based way. Thus far, I have not seen that.

More Americans support than oppose Trump's Army celebration parade: Poll
More Americans support than oppose Trump's Army celebration parade: Poll

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More Americans support than oppose Trump's Army celebration parade: Poll

As President Donald Trump hosts events on Saturday to celebrate the U.S. Army's 250th anniversary, a new national poll indicates more Americans are likely to approve than disapprove of the president's decision to hold a military parade. But six in 10 Americans are concerned about the cost of the parade, saying it's "not a good use" of government money, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey. Trump, who is marking his 79th birthday on Saturday, is scheduled to give a speech during the parade, which will take place Saturday evening along the National Mall in Washington D.C. Defense officials say roughly 6,600 soldiers will march in the parade, with some 50 military aircraft and 150 vehicles, including tanks, rocket launchers, and missiles. The Army says it's spending $25-$45 million to pay for the parade, which includes fixing D.C. streets damaged by the tanks. Trump Warns Any Protesters At His Military Parade Will Be 'Met With Very Big Force' Trump has defended the cost of the parade, saying last month in an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" that it would be "peanuts compared to the value of doing it." Read On The Fox News App "We have the greatest missiles in the world. We have the greatest submarines in the world. We have the greatest army tanks in the world. We have the greatest weapons in the world. And we're going to celebrate it," the president said. Trump To Host Military Parade To Celebrate Army's 250Th Birthday But some in Congress are criticizing the parade, saying the money could be better spent. "If it was really about celebrating military families, we could put $30 million toward helping them offset the cost of their child care, food assistance and tuition," Sen. Tammy Duckworth, a military veteran who lost both of her legs in combat while piloting an Army Black Hawk helicopter during the Iraq War, said in a social media post. "But it isn't. Trump is throwing himself a $30 million birthday parade just to stroke his own ego," Duckworth argued. According to the poll, 40% of adults nationwide approved of the military parade, with 29% disapproving, and three in 10 neither approving nor disapproving. There was an expected partisan divide, with two-thirds of Republicans approving of the president's move to hold the parade, and half of Democrats disapproving. But in a separate question, 60% of those surveyed said holding the parade was not a good use of government funds, with 38% disagreeing. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said holding the parade was a good use of government funds, while eight in 10 Democrats disagreed. The White House, in a statement, said that the parade "will be a unifying celebration for not only the thousands in attendance, but Americans across the country who can participate in honoring our active-duty servicemembers, Veterans, and fallen heroes." Pro-democracy, progressive, and labor activists are planning protests in all 50 states on Saturday that will coincide with Trump's military parade. Many are part of a series of "No Kings" protests across the country, with more than 1,500 rallies scheduled for this weekend. But organizers decided against holding a major protest in the nation's capital and instead will hold their main event in Philadelphia. The poll, which was conducted June 5-9, also indicates that 39% of those questioned approve of the job Trump's doing in the White House, with six in ten giving the president a thumbs down. The survey had an overall margin of error of plus or minus four percentage article source: More Americans support than oppose Trump's Army celebration parade: Poll

The Grim Reality of the Conflict in Iran
The Grim Reality of the Conflict in Iran

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The Grim Reality of the Conflict in Iran

A damaged residential building in Tehran, Iran, on June 13, 2025. Credit - Middle East Images—AFP/Getty In the early hours of Friday morning, Israel launched a sweeping military campaign against Iran. The ongoing operation, which was reportedly planned to unfold over several days, is targeting a list of nuclear and military facilities, as well as senior regime officials, that grows longer by the hour. Iran has thus far retaliated with drones and a substantial missile barrage that could see Israel expand its targeting further still. In a region that has seen endless bloodshed since Hamas's October 2023 attacks, the grim reality is that things may get much worse before they get even worse. Under the Islamic Republic that took power in 1979, enmity toward Israel has been a core ideological tenet of Iranian foreign policy and a key driver in its regional policy. Over decades, their rivalry played out mainly through indirect actions by Iran and by covert operations from Israel. That dynamic changed last year. In April and again in October, the two sides engaged in direct hostilities, with Iran twice launching massive missile salvoes largely repelled by Israeli and allied air defenses. After the second strike, which came shortly after Israel severely degraded the upper ranks of Hizbollah in Lebanon—the most powerful of Iran's proxies—Israel targeted Iranian air defences and missile production facilities, facing little resistance or response. But while Iran's regional power projection was diminishing and its arsenal of missiles and drones twice proved largely ineffective, a third concern—a nuclear threat which Israel considered existential—was still growing. Tehran had been steadily expanding the scale and scope of its nuclear activity ever since President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal during his first term; President Joe Biden's Administration sought and failed to revive it. In March, Trump announced that he had reached out to Iran's leadership to negotiate a new deal, and his administration conducted five rounds of talks in Muscat and Rome in attempts to reach one. For Iran, which sought sanctions relief for its embattled economy, the success of negotiations with the U.S. hinged on concessions it has long opposed: Dismantling its nuclear program altogether or even ceasing the domestic enrichment of uranium. For Israel, eliminating, rather than merely restricting, the production of fissile material that could be used to fuel a weapon has been paramount. For President Trump, the prospect of a military strike by Israel seems a means of strengthening Washington's hand in a diplomatic agreement in which he still remains interested. But at the moment, the question may be less a matter of whether diplomacy can succeed than how grievously the situation could escalate. The worst-case scenarios are dire: A cycle of Israeli and Iranian counterstrikes that draw in the U.S., Iran's non-state allies, and regional states, cause grievous harm to civilians on all sides, and inject profound uncertainty into global markets. Over time, Iran's regime could attempt to reconstitute its nuclear activity from the rubble, only with an explicit aim of fashioning a weapon in the shortest possible time as a means of deterrence in the future. Another disastrous scenario is that the regime in Tehran falls and there is a protracted war for power and chaos or an even harder line regime armed with nuclear weapons. Is there a path out of this deepening crisis? Perhaps, though not a particularly promising one. Trump's stated objective—even as the fire is exchanged in two directions—remains a deal with Iran, and Tehran could offer concessions on the stipulation that it also involve an immediate cessation of hostilities with Israel. Were Iran to concede on its red lines in an effort to stave off greater destruction, perhaps Trump would be keen enough to avert a widening conflagration to also press Israel into ending the escalation cycle as well. Iran's government has previously demonstrated that when facing particularly inauspicious circumstances, especially those that might threaten the very foundations of the regime itself, it can make concessions necessary for its survival. But facing perhaps the gravest crisis it has faced since the eight-year-long war with Iraq in the 1980s, it may end up doubling down to the detriment of its people and the region. Contact us at letters@

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