Opinion: As Trump Basks In Fordow Afterglow, Kremlin Has A Counterpoint
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Russians believe Trump will scramble for peace in a hurry to hog credit for stopping Israel-Iran war. But Iran will invest all its energies to get past nuclear line in minimum time
When bombs drop on the nuclear kitchens of the Ayatollah Khameini regime in Iran, billions rejoice. Some openly, some (especially the fast-transforming Sunni Arab powers) privately. Iran is a ruthlessly violent regime which has killed and targeted thousands of its own women for merely refusing to wear the hijab; runs terror proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis; and is widely seen as the biggest destabilising force in the Middle East. It has richly earned its comeuppance.
But then the man who ordered the early morning bombings on Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities is one who believes that jumping into every global conflict and claiming credit for solving those has earned him about five undelivered Nobel Peace Prizes so far.
It is true that American B-2 stealth bombers have dropped six GBU-57, the deepest bunker-busting bomb in the world. Developed in the early 2000s, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weighs 13,600 kg, is 6 meters long, has a diameter of about 80 cm, and contains nearly 2,500 kg of explosives. It can target structures up to 60 metres under the ground.
The B-2 bombers flew non-stop for around 37 hours from its base in Missouri, US, refuelling several times mid-air. The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) acknowledged the strikes. But it has downplayed these as superficial. No nuclear contamination detected after US strikes, it said.
No changes in background radiation were detected in Saudi Arabia or other Gulf Arab states, the Saudi Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission (NRRC) confirmed.
Russia, Iran's steadfast ally, remains unimpressed by the airstrikes. Russian news agencies mocked Trump through its X handle.
'Force far greater than what was witnessed tonight," boasted Trump — the man who thinks he deserves FIVE Nobel Peace Prizes," Sputnik posted.
But sources close to the Kremlin break down the US airstrikes more technically. Since Russia is Iran's biggest backer and has helped set up its nuclear infrastructure, there could be bias in its analysis. But it is nevertheless worth considering because beyond Trump's narcissistic boasts and the democratic world's confirmation bias to believe Iran's Ayatollah regime's nuke toys are finished, there could be a reality check.
Six GBU-57 bombs (some now say 12) pounded Iran's Fordow nuclear plant. They rely on mass, not firepower. Imagine 30,000 pounds of tungsten, delayed fuses, inertial guidance, and geological stress sequencing.
But Fordow was built for this, the Russians say.
It is designed to counter the MOP. Hence the curved tunnels, offset caverns, anti-penetration strata, and layered redundancy across ventilation. Fordow apparently has C2 and IR-6 centrifuge chambers. A single hit does not affect much, but two strikes can open up a tunnel mouth.
To truly destroy the core, you would need tight sequencing, vector convergence, telemetry confirmation, and real-time damage layering, says the source close to the Kremlin. That apparently didn't happen. At most, the American bombs sealed an entrance, he argues. Iran has so far reported no core disruption, no enrichment halt, and no internal collapse.
Russians estimate that to drop six GBU-57 bombs, three B-2 stealth bombers together or two conducting multiple flyovers deep in contested airspace flew in without strike escort in one of the most monitored radar corridors on earth. If Fordow was gone, you would see craters, electromagnetic rupture, emergency airlifts, seismographs lighting up, and infrared flares beneath the mountain, they say.
Tomahawk missiles on Natanz and Esfahan add nothing, they claim. Cruise missiles are subsonic, non-penetrative, and designed for surface-level disruption. 'You don't decapitate nuclear infrastructure with Tomahawk Block IV missiles. You flick switches. You scorch perimeters," the source says. 'A thousand-pound warhead does not cut into fuel halls or disrupt cascade chambers beneath 20 meters of hardened casing."
This was bravado by Trump aimed at placating pro-Israel pressure groups, Russians believe. Apparently Jewish groups in the US have been long pressing Washington to join the war.
'As of now, there is no synthetic aperture radar (SAR) confirmation. No crater clustering. No multispectral flash analysis. No underground fire signature. No battle damage assessment (BDA) loop," says the Russian source.
The Russians believe Trump will now scramble for peace in a hurry to hog credit for stopping the Israel-Iran war. But Iran will invest all its energies to get past the nuclear line in the minimum time now. And Russia is likely to help it.
The last quip is particularly acerbic: 'If the centrifuge of Fordow still spins tomorrow, Washington just pulled off the most expensive influence op in bunker-busting history, only to watch Tehran climb the escalation ladder unscathed."
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Although Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump and America, he would not be pleased if the airstrikes serve only as Trump's headline and photo-op and makes Iran even more determined to procure the Bomb.
Abhijit Majumder is a senior journalist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18's views.
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