Australian defence ‘can't be definitive' whether Chinese nuclear submarine is part of live-fire flotilla

The Guardian

26-02-2025

Chinese warships south of Hobart appear likely to sail through the Great Australian Bight, and could be accompanied by an undetected nuclear submarine, the chief of the Australian defence force has said.
Admiral David Johnston appeared before Senate estimates on Wednesday morning, saying the ADF had been surveilling the three People's Liberation Army-Navy vessels since they split from a larger 'taskgroup' and sailed into Australian waters from southeast Asia last week.
But the defence force did not know the ships were undertaking a live-fire drill in the Tasman Sea on Friday until 30 minutes after it had begun. Defence were first notified by a civilian aircraft that was warned by the Chinese vessels when it flew within radio range. It took an hour for the New Zealand Navy, which was monitoring the Chinese vessels at the time, to notify the ADF.
The Chinese flotilla – the frigate Hengyang, the cruiser Zunyi, and a replenishment vessel Weishanhu – is currently 250km south of Hobart, inside Australia's exclusive economic zone, sailing southwest.
'The fact that they are currently south of Hobart and proceeding southwest suggests that it is more likely now that they may proceed through the Australian Bight.'
Asked to comment on reporting the ships were likely accompanied by a nuclear submarine, Johnston said he could not be categoric.
'I don't know whether there is a submarine with them. It is possible: task groups occasionally do deploy with submarines, but not always. I can't be definitive on whether that's the case.'
Johnston said the Chinese flotilla had undertaken two live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea on Friday and on Saturday. He was critical that, while the drills were conducted in international waters, and in accordance with international law, there was insufficient notice before the live-fire drills started.
But estimates confirmed that there was, in fact, no notice given, and that the Australian defence force only learned of the live fire drill half an hour after it had started, and via a pilot flying a commercial flight near to the Chinese ships.
Johnston confirmed defence was notified of the live-fire drill through AirServices Australia, which had been notified by a commercial pilot who had flown into close proximity to the vessels while the live-firing window was open.
At 9:58am on Friday morning, a Virgin commercial pilot was contacted by radio by the Chinese vessels and warned – in English – there was a live-fire drill underway.
The Virgin flight had flown within about 250 nautical miles – potentially within line of sight of the Chinese vessels – when it was warned to stay clear.
AirServices Australia issued a hazard alert within two minutes, establishing an 18km exclusion zone around the flotilla, extending to a height of 45,000 feet, at 10am.
The aviation safety agency then notified the ADF's Joint Operations Command Headquarters, 10 minutes after the initial contact from the Virgin pilot.
Twenty-minutes after the initial contact, at 10.18am, a separate commercial flight operated by Emirates was in radio contact with the Chinese warships, which informed pilots that the live firing exercise had commenced at 9.30am and would conclude at 2pm.
It was 11:01am – another hour – before the New Zealand navy, which had been shadowing the Chinese flotilla, informed Australia of the live-fire exercise through military channels, estimates heard.
Johnston said the lack of notice was potentially dangerous.
'The absence of any advance notice to Australian authorities was a concern, notably, that the limited notice provided by the PLA could have unnecessarily increased the risk to aircraft and vessels in the area,' he told estimates.
Outside of estimates, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, insisted the civilian and military notifications on the live-fire drill were contemporaneous.
'At around the same time, there were two area of notification: one was from the New Zealand vessels that were tailing … the [Chinese] vessels in the area. So that occurred and at the same time through the channels that occur when these things occur, Air Services got notified as well.'
Albanese said he had been in contact by phone with the New Zealand prime minister, Christopher Luxon, as the two navies cooperatively shadowed the Chinese vessels.
The shadow minister for defence, Andrew Hastie, told an ABC radio interview China was undertaking 'the biggest peacetime military buildup since 1945', and working to send a strong message that it is a global power.
Hastie said he believed China was 'testing US allies as Donald Trump resets relationships in Europe'.
'We're seeing a flotilla of three warships conduct live fire exercises off our coast. So we've gone from wolf warrior diplomacy to gunboat diplomacy.'
A spokesperson for defence minister Richard Marles said Australia had lodged formal complaints, both in Canberra and in Beijing, over the ships' actions.
'The Australian government has raised its concern with the lack of notice on the live- fire activity from the Chinese government, including through appropriate channels in Canberra and Beijing.'