AMD Withstands China Curbs, Eyes AI Comeback
AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) delivers solid results and guidance while warning that China export curbs will shave roughly $1.5 billion off its fiscal 2025 revenue.
In its latest quarterly update, AMD disclosed that its guidance assumes a $700 million hit from MI308 export restrictions to China, with total 2025 losses of about $1.5 billion. Shares rallied 1.9% in premarket tradingoutperforming rivals Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Intel (INTC)as management reiterated confidence in client and server CPU momentum despite the headwinds.
Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore praised AMD's very good numbers, noting that free cash flow and client-unit pull-ins remain strong even as AI hasn't yet driven earnings, though it has lifted the valuation multiple.
Bank of America's Vivek Arya expects Q1 revenue of $7.15 billion$7.20 billiona $50 million$100 million beatwhile warning that pro-forma gross margins could dip to 42%43% in Q2 before rebounding to historical 54%55% ranges in 2H25 as China impacts ease. Jefferies' Blayne Curtis echoes that AI GPU sales will be the primary metric, forecasting 2026 AI GPU revenue of $6 billion versus the Street's $7.4 billion, given continued NVDA and custom-chip competition.
Meanwhile, Evercore ISI's Mark Lipacis reiterated an Outperform rating after AMD said its Instinct data-center GPU business grew over 60% quarter-over-quarter to $1.6 billion on the back of hyperscaler deployments and ROCm software gains.
Analysts agree that AMD's client CPU strengthfueled by desktop share gains and tariff-related pull-insremains a bright spot, but concern lingers over AI competitiveness until the MI400 series and strategic ZT acquisition synergies materialize next year.
Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers maintained an Overweight rating, noting that the MI308X ban poses a clean catalyst risk into mid- and late-2025, and that investors will need clear visibility on AI GPU traction to regain confidence.
Why it matters: AMD's ability to offset China-related revenue losses and deliver a compelling MI400 launch will determine if it can translate robust CPU performance into sustainable AI growthand justify its premium valuation.
Investors will now focus on AMD's next quarterly reportexpected in Julyand track the MI400 roadmap and AI-driven revenue updates as the year unfolds.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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