Trump Ukraine security shift faces base backlash over vague promises
Trump spent much of last year's campaign criticising predecessor Joe Biden over billions in aid to Ukraine. He publicly upbraided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky back in February.
Trump has now reportedly considered making promises to Kyiv aimed at ending the Russian invasion.
He has firmly ruled out sending American ground troops or supporting NATO membership for Ukraine. Trump sides with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in blaming Ukraine's Western alliance aspirations for the 2022 invasion.
Following Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska, his envoy Steve Witkoff claimed a Russian concession. Witkoff stated the US might offer 'Article Five-like protection' for Ukraine, referencing NATO's mutual defence clause.
Some observers immediately questioned Witkoff's interpretation of Putin's position. Moscow has publicly insisted it requires security guarantees for Russia, not Ukraine.
Trump himself has said 'we'll give them very good protection' and mentioned providing US airpower. The specifics of what US airpower would entail remain largely undefined. It could potentially support a deployment of European troops to Ukraine being considered by France and Britain.
US enforcement of Ukrainian air control would be an 'incredible green light for greater ambition' by Europeans, said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund. She noted the striking unity European leaders showed by backing Zelensky in Washington talks with Trump. 'For there to be a meaningful difference on the ground in Ukraine, it can't just be diplomatic alignment,' Berzina explained.
'It can't just be the heads of state being in lockstep for a few days at a time.' She added that European leaders 'have to be ready to actually move and to show to Trump, 'We have everything ready; we just need x from you to make this work.''
Trump could authorise a much smaller air deployment focused solely on reconnaissance. This would see only limited numbers of US planes operating in Ukrainian airspace.
Former senior US policymaker Debra Cagan predicts Trump's team will try to walk back his statements. 'I am betting a huge sum of money that there are people around Trump who are going to spend a lot of time walking that back,' Cagan stated.
'They're going to try a very de minimis approach to security guarantees, to do as little as possible to carry that out.' She emphasised that any successful strategy needs land, air, and sea components, including keeping Black Sea ports open.
Trump retains a strong hold on the Republican Party but faces dissent within his hard-right base. This base backed him largely for his dismissive attitude toward foreign military involvement.
Outspoken Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said voters would be 'appalled' by more Ukraine support. 'America is broke,' Greene told conservative host Megyn Kelly.
'At some point we have to start saying no to the rest of the world.' Trump-aligned Senator Tommy Tuberville called it an 'impossible sell' to voters wary of long-term military commitments. Trump has worked hard to portray the war as belonging to Biden and openly desires a Nobel Peace Prize.
Berzina suggested Trump could frame this to his base as 'about America keeping peace and not about America making war.' - AFP
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