Lee's election in S Korea: The time for wishful thinking has come

Asia Times

9 hours ago

South Korea has a new President.
President Lee Jae-myung is a lifelong leftist with an affinity for the People's Republic of China and North Korea, and has no great love for the United States.
He has referred to American troops in South Korea as 'occupiers' and said China should do what it wants to Taiwan. Lee apparently likes North Korea enough to put money down. He currently faces charges for involvement in sending $8 million to North Korea while he was governor of Gyeonggi Province. His deputy has already been convicted.
However, during the recent election campaign Lee talked up the US-ROK alliance and three-way US-ROK-Japan security cooperation.
Thus, many American observers claim Lee is a pragmatist and a centrist, and will govern as such.
Maybe.
But as likely it reflects a tendency towards wishful thinking on the part of America's foreign policy class when a certain type of radical leader comes along.
The same was said about Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Turkey's Recep Erdogan, Solomon Islands' Manasseh Sogavare, Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega and Cuba's Fidel Castro.
Even Xi Jinping was mentioned as a reformer who just needed to solidify his position before liberalizing the PRC.
But maybe these sort of men mean what they say beyond the soothing language intended for Western elites when on the verge of taking power.
As for Lee, forget what he said on the campaign trial, and look at his new prime minister, Kim Min-seok.
Kim was a Seoul National University radical student leader in the 1980s and joined the illegal occupation of the Seoul American Cultural Center in 1985. He was jailed for three years due to his anti-state and pro-North Korea activities. The Americans once refused to give him a visa, and he is said to have claimed the Americans were behind Covid.
One recalls candidate Barack Obama who promised to 'unify' a divided United States. Once elected, he appointed Chicago political operative Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff. And America got Chicago politics at the national level. Rule #1 of Chicago politics: crush your opponents. Rule #2: do whatever it takes to keep power—forever.
Don't expect centrist, conciliatory policies from Lee.
Rather, we'll soon see Lee's pogrom against his opponents – to include anyone with the nerve to have called for honest elections. Lee's Democratic Party of Korea (DP) has an overwhelming majority in the national assembly – likely obtained by questionable means. He can do whatever he wants, and packing the Supreme Court appears on the menu.
Lee's calls for 'restoring democracy' and unifying the nation in his inaugural speech give chutzpah a bad name.
He and the DP spent the entire two years of Yoon's administration making it impossible for Yoon to govern and enact his policies.
This went well beyond sharp-elbowed politics found in a normal country. Instead, it was intended to cause chaos. Nearly 30 impeachments of Yoon and his officials? Zeroing out Yoon's budget requests and more?
Not exactly the behavior of a loyal opposition.
Rather, Lee's election is one more episode in a years-long effort by South Korean radicals to establish single-party rule in South Korea – and align with the PRC, North Korea and even Russia.
The original impeachment resolution against former president Yoon accused him of 'antagonizing North Korea, China, and Russia' and 'adhering to a bizarre Japan-centered foreign policy.'
Sometimes people tell you what they really think – if you'll listen.
Is this the end of the US-ROK alliance?
It won't collapse tomorrow, and still has resilience.
But any relationship is on shaky ground when key figures on one side dislike the other side – and would rather hook up with their partner's main rivals.
Everything will get more difficult for Washington in Northeast Asia, and easier for Beijing, which has been pressuring and insinuating itself into South Korea for years.
Perhaps hoping to make the best of things, the White House said the US-ROK alliance is 'ironclad' – and declared the election 'free and fair.' It did express general concern over 'Chinese interference' in democracies. The State Department similarly offered congratulations to President Lee.
Free and fair election?
South Korean citizens facing intimidation and lawsuits uncovered substantial evidence of widespread electoral irregularities (as they did for elections in 2020, 2022, and 2024).
Did anyone at the US Embassy, the State Department or the White House even examine the evidence? Or meet with the citizen's groups?
Apparently not.
The foreign press has been equally lazy. As have most analysts. Rather than investigating, just call it baseless conspiracy theories.
This was a gut punch to pro-alliance South Koreans, already distressed that the Trump administration couldn't be bothered to make a favorable reference to consensual government and honest elections before the polling.
So maybe the Trump administration is going to wish away the problem and pretend Lee isn't what he's been all his professional life, in hopes of keeping the alliance alive.
But at some point a US administration is going to discover that Lee and South Korean leftists—just like Chavez, Erdogan, Ortega and others – mean what they say.
And Washington may one day find that South Korea, once solidly with the US and democracies, is quite the opposite. And, furthermore, that a system has developed in the ROK so that even if the problematic 'leader' goes away, the country is stuck and cannot re-democratize.
Washington still has cards to play if it wants to support consensual government in South Korea – and at the same time preserve the US-ROK alliance.
Not least is that most South Koreans don't want to go where Lee and his 'jusapa' radicals want to take them.
But having a good hand requires one to actually play it.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Self-Defense Forces and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of the book, When China Attacks: A Warning To America .
This article was originally published by The Sunday Guardian. It is republished with permission.