Trump warns Putin 'STOP!' but history says that's not enough
"Vladimir, STOP! 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let's get the peace deal DONE," Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday.
Oh, the frustration of negotiating with Russia. But this sounded like the cry of a hoop-skirted heroine tied to the railroad tracks.
President Donald J. Trump is a master communicator, but with the single-word plea, he brought back bad memories of one of the low points of President Joe Biden's foreign policy. That came Sep. 16, 2022, when 60 Minutes asked then-President Joe Biden what he would say if Putin threatened to use nuclear or chemical weapons.
"Don't. Don't. Don't. It would change the face of war unlike anything since World War II," Biden replied. About then came the tragic freeze in strategic planning that frittered away momentum for a battlefield victory for Ukraine.
So here we are, with negotiations at an intense phase of swapping Crimea for the huge Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and trying to make sure Ukraine has a viable economic path.
"Vladimir, STOP" won't get the job done. Can this be the same President Donald J. Trump who threatened Hamas there would be "all hell to pay," which resulted in a ceasefire and a hostage deal? Trump has come down like a ton of bricks on Ayatollah Khamenei. He's said multiple times he will strike Iran if need be to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. "If we don't make a deal, I'll be leading the pack," Trump said on Friday.
Perhaps Trump needs to say something like this next:
"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation which will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in 5 minutes."
So joked President Ronald Reagan on August 11, 1984, during a sound check before a speech. You can hear the laughter in the background. Was it a meaningless slip-up? Not on your life. This Hollywood veteran with five decades of experience before the camera and boundless media savvy knew quite well there was no true "off the record" moment. Reagan had already accelerated production of B-1 and B-2 bombers, introduced the Strategic Defense Initiative, and put the Soviet Union on notice.
I bring up Reagan in part because he was not afraid of Russia. Part of the problem shared by Trump and Biden in dealing with the Ukraine war is placing too much stock in Putin's nuclear threats. As many have pointed out, use of a nuclear weapon by Russia in Ukraine would blow radiation back into Russia itself. Don't forget that China told Putin in late 2022 to cool off the nuclear threats. Russia is an economic vassal state of China. Putin can't risk losing China's oil money and sneaky microelectronics, and Xi Jinping has made it clear that tactical nuclear weapons are bad for business.
Reagan did not hesitate to play hardball with General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev to get the Soviets to agree to arms control. Reagan also avoided the one-word trap, either using humor to send a message, or pointing out a wider path, most famously in his Berlin speech from June 12, 1987. "If you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall."
Like Reagan, Trump is very close to a deal, and now is the moment to be firm.
Trump has done well luring Putin with reminiscences about the U.S. alliance with the Russians during World War II, an event still vivid in Putin's mind. (Putin's mother Maria survived the siege of Leningrad but lost her two-year-old son Viktor to diptheria and starvation in 1942 during the siege.)
Trump ought to tell Putin there will be "all hell to pay" if Special Envoy Steve Witkoff doesn't leave Moscow with a smile on his face.
Then, of course, Trump would have to back it up, but that's easy.
Let Trump threaten to increase the oil sanctions or withdraw all the financial carrots, which I believe are the sweeteners being offered behind the scenes. Or how about a Truth Social post granting Ukraine immediate NATO membership, followed by the deployment of nuclear-capable F-35s to Ukraine for "exercises."
Putin's backside would be twitching like a bunny rabbit's nose.
All the world knows Vladimir Putin has a taste for war. He continues to launch attacks on civilians in Ukraine to show off his second-rate military, scare European allies, and impress the Russian people who know he's a crook but support him anyway.
Now is the moment for Trump to hammer Putin with words and real consequences: renewed NATO military power supporting Ukraine, or a total loss of any business deals to get out from under China's shadow.
We begin bombing Crimea in 5 minutes.
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