Major League Pickleball 2025 Season Recap And Playoff Preview

Forbes

a day ago

After a 'warm-up' PPA tournament last weekend in Bristol, the business end of the Major League Pickleball season is upon us. After ten weeks and 550 matches, the sixteen teams of the Premier League of MLP have been whittled to ten, the six Challenger teams are in Southern California, and the playoff schedules are out.
Coincidentally, if you were interested in wagering on the results, Polymarket has some lines open as we speak where you can bet on individual matches, the winner of the competition, etc (note: Polymarket is not available to US-based customers at this time, so this is for viewing/entertainment only for Americans unless you want to try some VPN gambits to participate. I'm not sure who's making their lines, but they seem to have a little bit of insight based on the odds I'm seeing).
We're going to do a quick recap of the final regular season standings with some commentary, then talk about the playoff structure for this coming weekend's first round in San Diego, and make some first weekend playoff predictions.
Click here for the MLP San Diego event page, with links to schedules, lineups and other MLP data.
Final Regular Season Standings and Analysis - Premier
Here's how the 16 teams ended up in Premier, along with my pre-season predictions.
1. St. Louis Shock, 24-1, 74 pts (predicted No. 3)
2. Dallas Flash, 22-3, 71 pts (predicted No. 1)
3. New Jersey 5's, 20-5, 62 pts (predicted No. 2)
Most pundits thought there was going to be a gap from the top 3 teams to the rest of the league, and indeed that's the way it turned out. St. Louis and Dallas both spent early in the draft to bring back their 2024 rosters intact, while New Jersey rolled the dice that they could replace last year's No. 2 Female Mari Humberg on the waiver wire and ended up winless against the two teams ranked above them for the season. New Jersey made big-time trades along the way and now sport a better bench than many starting lineups, but it likely isn't enough to make a difference in the playoffs. The 5's were basically locked into the #3 spot by virtue of their results in the penultimate regular season event, and took a loss in Salt Lake to sully their record a bit. St. Louis lost just once in the regular season behind MVP candidate Patriquin's dominance and Fahey's vast improvement, but are no lock to win. Meanwhile, Dallas was undefeated through most of the season and for a while looked as if they'd go undefeated (especially after winning the mid-season tourney), but ran out of steam and fell to second.
4. Brooklyn Pickleball Team, 18-7, 56 pts (predicted No. 6)
5. Columbus Sliders, 18-7 52 pts (predicted No. 4)
6. LA Mad Drops 18-7 49 pts (predicted No. 10)
All three of these teams ended up 18-7, but in vastly different ways. Brooklyn played most of the season with sub AJ Koller (whom I interviewed in Grand Rapids for a story about his evolution as the 'super-sub' of MLP and will be writing about at some point soon), and they sewed up the 4th spot with their last match of the season, a head-to-head win over Columbus. Columbus had some staffing issues of their own and took a couple of bad losses, including a shut-out in the mid-season tournament. However, the Mad Drops enter the playoffs as the betting favorites thanks to the blockbuster late-season trade acquisition of Ben Johns. Johns joined his new team for the star-studded Dallas MLP event and certainly the team seemed to gel as the weekend went along: against top competition they lost to St. Louis 4-0 early, then dropped a DreamBreaker to New Jersey before beating Dallas in a DreamBreaker to seal 1st place for the Shock. LA will be a difficult 'out' for whoever they play in the quarters and could upend the playoffs.
7. Texas Ranchers, 15-10, 48 pts (predicted No. 5)
8. Orlando Squeeze 15-10, 42 pts (predicted No. 7).
Texas and Orlando both enter the playoffs with question marks. Texas left their star player Alshon home for the final MLP event for non-injury reasons, an event where they had a chance to move up in the standings. Orlando made a late-season trade to acquire Millie Rane, but still limped to the finish line with two bad losses in Salt Lake (one to the under-manned Rangers, then a 4-0 stomping by Utah). Orlando's performance in Men's doubles in particular this season has been curious: individually Staksrud and Frazier are two of the best doubles players out there, yet they went 'just' 17-7 as a team this year. The addition of Rane (one of the 'Johnson 5' along with Frazier) may help, but Frazier needs to improve his Mixed results if Orlando wants to move on in this league.
9. Utah Black Diamonds, 12-13, 35pts (predicted No. 13)
Utah kind of finished on an island, as famously the 'top 8' of MLP generally dominated the 'bottom 8' this season. At the league's halfway point, the top 8 teams were literally undefeated versus the bottom 8 teams, and for the entire season the Top 8 teams were an astounding 110-5 versus the bottom 8 teams. Utah had two of those wins, one shocker over New Jersey in Daytona Beach and then a solid win over Brooklyn at the San Clemente event. So, the potential is there for Utah, especially after upgrading their second female spot to Utah resident Allyce Jones, but it'll be an uphill battle out of the 9-spot.
10. Miami Pickleball Club, 8-17, 22 pts (predicted No. 14).
Miami finished just a point ahead of Chicago for the last playoff spot, basically sealing the deal with a 3-2 DreamBreaker head-to-head win at the Salt Lake City event. However, their accomplishment of making the playoffs is relatively astounding in that I thought they were far weaker than they presented, and given that at the trade deadline they moved their two best players (Noe Khlif and Millie Rane). They're likely one and done in San Diego, but clearly over-achieved this season. It's a testament to the top-heavy league and the number of teams who punted this season that we have an 8-17 team in the playoffs.
11. Chicago Slice, 5-20, 21 pts (predicted No. 9)
12. Phoenix Flames, 6-19, 19 pts (predicted No. 8)
13. Atlanta Bouncers, 6-19, 18 pts (predicted No. 12)
I group these three teams together versus the other non-playoff teams because, well, these three teams at least 'tried' all season. Chicago absolutely went for it in the draft, spending serious cash as GM Ron Saslow executed his strategy. However, his team of veterans managed to go just 5-20 on the season and raised questions about their top male Ignatowich's ability to lead a team. Phoenix sabotaged a decent 2024 team by loading up personalities and Instagram stars; their season finished with their two leading females refusing to play with each other and very questionable effort levels on the court unless their stars were being motivated by trash talk. Lastly Atlanta's talent just couldn't cut it in the Premier, and by season's end was starting its bench players over its presumed starters.
14. Carolina Hogs, 5-20, 17 points (predicted No. 11)
15. SoCal Hard Eights, 4-21, 16 points (predicted No. 16)
16. NY Hustlers, 4-21, 10 points (predicted No. 15)
Unfortunately, without the threat of relegation, some teams (and some owners) have capitulated completely on their teams (and perhaps the MLP concept). Carolina reportedly didn't even pay for basic team amenities, let alone for their reserves to travel, and once the Ben & Collin situation blew up they were left fielding a team that probably couldn't have beaten any of the Challenger teams. SoCal did the best they could with the limited amount of funds they committed, and at least have some promising players for next year in Hovenier, Ingram, and Campbell. However, the doormat goes to the Hustlers, who like Orlando endeavored to dismantle a successful 2024 playoff team and turn it into the worst team in 2025, a weird look for a team owned by one of the lead investors in the league.
Final Regular Season Standings and Analysis - Challenger
Here's how the six teams fared in Challenger, where all 6 teams qualify for the playoffs.
1. Las Vegas Night Owls, 21-4, 65pts (Predicted No. 1)
2. Nashville Chefs 16-9, 51 pts (Predicted No. 4)
3. California Black Bears 12-13, 38 pts (Predicted No 5)
4. DC Pickleball Team 11-14, 36 pts (Predicted No. 2)
5. Bay Area Breakers, 10-15, 32 pts (Predicted No. 3)
6. Florida Smash, 5-20, 15 pts (Predicted No. 6)
Las Vegas more or less ran away with the league but still took four losses (one each to Nashville, California, DC, and Bay Area). Nashville pushed Las Vegas at times, especially at the scintillating mid-season event, but finished in second by a fair margin. California went 5-0 in the last event to vault themselves into the No. 3 standings spot and earn themselves a decent chance to move forward in the playoffs. DC and Bay Area were neck and neck all year in the standings, but DC dominated on the court, winning 5 of their 6 meetings (their sole loss being a DreamBreaker in their first appearance back in Austin). Lastly Florida as the smallest and poorest team was the doormat by a fair margin, to no real surprise. Nashville limps into the playoffs having just lost one of its top players to injury/retirement in Michelle Esquivel, while California netted a premier-level player in Martin Emmrich at the trade deadline, who seems to have energized the Black Bears heading into the playoffs.
Playoff Week 1 Predictions for 2025 - Premier
With ten teams in the Premier playoffs, we'll see a 'round of 16' with the following matchups on Friday, August 15th playing a 'regular' MLP match:
- No. 7 Texas Ranchers vs No. 10 Miami Pickleball Club
- No. 8 Orlando Squeeze vs No. 9 Utah Black Diamonds
The winners of these matches will then head into the quarterfinals. We won't know the exact matchups until the first round is complete, since the top seeds can 'pick' which team they want to play. If the seeds hold and the top teams pick the lowest-seeds in all cases, then we'll get four quarter final matchups where the teams play three full MLP matches for the rest of the weekend in San Diego as follows:
- No. 1 St. Louis Shock versus No. 8 Orlando Squeeze
- No. 2 Dallas Flash versus No. 7 Texas Ranchers
- No. 3 New Jersey 5's versus No. 6 LA Mad Drops
- No. 4 Brooklyn Pickleball Club versus No. 5 Columbus Sliders.
However, given that LA is certainly better than their seed, and is probably the 2nd most dangerous team in the draw, the New Jersey 5's likely will select Columbus instead of LA to avoid the Ben Johns-led team in this round. Also, if Utah or Miami were to score an upset in the opening round, St. Louis would have first dibs at taking that team instead of Orlando, which would foul up these predictions completely. That said:
My San Diego Predictions:
Round of 16
- No. 7 Texas beats No. 10 Miami 3-0
- No. 9 Utah beats No. 8 Orlando 3-1 (Dylan Frazier badly injured his hamstring last week and will be replaced by bench player Grayson Goldin, who's a great player but this is enough to call for an upset at this juncture.
Quarters
- No. 1 St. Louis beats No. 9 Utah in two matches, 3-1 and 3-1.
- No. 2 Dallas beats No. 7 Texas in two matches, 3-1 and 3-2
- No. 3 New Jersey beats No. 5 Columbus in two matches, 3-0 and 3-1
- No. 6 LA Mad Drops beats No. 4 Brooklyn in two matches 3-1 and 3-2
Playoff Week 1 Predictions for 2025 - Challenger
With just six teams in the Challenger playoffs, they'll play their quarterfinals and semi finals this weekend in San Diego. Like with the Premier playoffs, we'll get a one-MLP match round for their quarter-finals, then go to a best 2 of 3 MLP match format in the semis. Also as with Premier, the top seeded Las Vegas team will get to 'pick' which advancing team they wish to play, and the odds are they'll pick whoever isn't named 'California Black Bears' as their semi-final opponent.
My San Diego Predictions:
Quarter Finals:
- No. 3 California beats No. 6 Florida 3-0
- No 4 DC Pickleball Team beats No. 5 Bay Area Breakers 3-1
Semi-Finals
- No. 1 Las Vegas beats No. 4 DC Pickleball Team 3-0, 3-1
- No. 3. California beats No. 2 Nashville 3-0, 3-2
Play starts Friday at 10am Pacific/1pm Eastern, live from San Diego on PickleballTV.