Renewable Energy: Should we go steady on renewable generation?, ET EnergyWorld

Time of India

08-05-2025

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On the 28th of April, 2025, around mid-day, there was a massive power outage in Spain, Portugal and the south-west part of France. The outage was so severe that all of a sudden homes lost their power, offices became dark, the metro stopped in its tracks, buses got stranded on the roads, there was no cellular service, automatic teller machines (ATMs) became dysfunctional etc.In short, there was complete mayhem and such was the panic created that shops soon ran out of supplies due to abnormal buying. It took about 18 hours to restore some semblance of order but to get back to normal, it is said that it might take a few days.The governments of Portugal and Spain are trying to figure out the reason(s) for this blackout but no concrete results have been arrived at so far. Portugal was quick to put the blame on Spain, saying that the trouble originated there and this allegation has not really been refuted by Spain.While the Spanish government says that it is still analysing the situation, power experts have their own theories. Cyberattack, it seems, has been ruled out since no evidence to that effect has surfaced. Same is the case with any possible sabotage. Purely on facts, what is known is that there was a sudden plunge in the power supply to the tune of 15 gigawatts (GW) and this happened within a span of 5 seconds. A 15 GW drop actually is about 60 per cent of the demand for power in the Spanish grid.The masses are complaining that the Spanish government is deliberately hiding the facts though a commission of enquiry has been constituted. There is a demand for a Parliamentary probe instead of an executive enquiry which conveys an element of trust deficit as far as the government is concerned. So far some complex reasons are being cited by the government like an 'induced atmospheric vibration' which, of course, is Greek and Latin to the common man.Having said that it may be added that blackouts can be caused by weather related events and there are several instances in the past which are documented. One particular report says that 83 per cent of all blackouts which occurred in USA between 2000 and 2021 were weather related. One specific instance is of a case in the UK where a lightning strike on a transmission circuit in 2021 near London led to a frequency drop which affected about one million consumers by way of a blackout.Some experts, however, feel that the main reason for the blackout in Spain could possibly due to overdependence on renewable energy , especially solar, and that the grid could not contain the domino effect of a sudden drop in supply. Spain has a very ambitious target when it comes to renewable generation and it aspires to have 81 per cent of its electricity supply from renewable sources by 2030. It would be interesting to note that just about 12 days prior to the blackout, Spain had boasted that its grid was running solely on renewable power.It is said that just before the blackout, 60 per cent of the power in the grid was being supplied by solar. The problem is that when such a huge quantum of power is being supplied by solar, there is no inertia available in the grid. Inertia is available from conventional turbines like coal, hydro and nuclear stations and this acts as a cushion for any disturbance in the grid and smoothens out the fluctuations. When it come to solar power, you have inverters which cannot absorb these shocks.Experts feel that the lack of any backup generation created this mess and the decision of the Spanish government to add more and more of renewable generation added to their woes. Spain, incidentally, has limited connectivity with the European grid. Had it been better connected, perhaps, this catastrophe could have been averted as power could have flown in from other countries. Of course, the reverse could have also been true, that is the blackout could have spread to other countries instead of being limited to a small portion in France.By the way, France disconnected its grid from Spain once the problem erupted thereby, limiting its own damage. In the process, however, this squeezed the Spanish grid further as there was no power flow from neighbouring countries. France reconnected their grid after some normalcy was restored in Spain and Portugal.Though no final assessment has been made as to what caused this blackout, it is certainly a wake-up call to other countries who are pursuing an aggressive policy of installing renewable capacity. What is a safe proportion of renewable energy in the total electricity mix (in terms of generation and not capacity) will vary from country to country depending upon its ground realities.Though some experts feel that there should be no problem till one reaches 40 per cent, much depends on other aspects like availability of spare hydro or gas-based generation which can be started immediately if there is a fall in renewable generation, the availability of grid scale batteries which can provide storage etc. In the case of India, renewable power (leaving aside large hydro) accounts for about 14 per cent of the electricity mix and hence, there is a lot of margin available.However, even this small proportion of renewable generation is being managed by ramping up or down our coal-based generation which is not really the most efficient way. Finally, the decision taken during the Conference of Parties (CoP 28) to triple renewable capacity by 2030 should be viewed with circumspect. Increase in renewable capacity has to be a well-planned exercise with proper power flow studies under different scenarios. In the absence of such due diligence, catastrophe may follow.(Somit Dasgupta is Ph.D. Senior Visiting Fellow, ICRIER and former, Member (Economic & Commercial), CEA. Views are personal.)