Israel's attack on Iran marks moment of truth for Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on the mission of his lifetime.
For years, the veteran leader has made the destruction of Iran's nuclear programme his top priority, raising the issue in speech after speech in apocalyptic terms. Now Netanyahu's moment of truth has arrived.
After battling Iran's allies across the region following Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack, Netanyahu has turned his attention to what he describes as the "head of the octopus", with an unprecedented and open-ended military offensive against Iran and its nuclear programme.
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It is an aggressive gamble made possible by a confluence of factors, including the weakening of Iranian-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, and the reelection and support of US President Donald Trump.
But success is not guaranteed, and the outcome of the escalating conflict could determine the fate of Netanyahu's government and shape his legacy.
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Here's a closer look:
Netanyahu's history of warnings on Iran
Netanyahu began warning about the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran in the 1990s -- even before his first term as prime minister at the end of the decade. He returned to office in 2009 and has served as prime minister almost continuously since then, rarely missing an opportunity to portray the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to Israel's existence and menace to the world.
In 2012, he famously displayed a crude cartoon illustrating what he said was Iran's march toward the bomb during a speech to the UN assembly.
Three years later, he delivered a controversial speech to the US Congress arguing against then-President Barack Obama's emerging nuclear deal with Iran. The speech infuriated the White House and failed to block the deal. But it delighted Republicans and laid the groundwork for Trump to pull out of the agreement three years later.
Netanyahu has frequently compared Iran's theocratic leadership to the Nazis, at times drawing the ire of Holocaust scholars and survivor groups. He turned to that familiar playbook this week as he announced the latest attacks on Iran.
"Eighty years ago, the Jewish people were the victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime," he said. "Today, the Jewish state refuses to be a victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime."
Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. But its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons grade levels and failure to cooperate with international inspectors have raised doubts about those claims.
The head of the UN nuclear agency has warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several bombs. The agency censured Iran this week for failing to comply with nonproliferation obligations, one day before the Israeli strikes began.
Why attack Iran now?
Netanyahu for years has threatened to strike Iran, repeatedly saying that all options were "on the table".
But never before has he pulled the trigger due to opposition by domestic rivals and security chiefs, questions about the feasibility of such a risky operation and the opposition of a string of US presidents.
But things have changed over the past two years, and Netanyahu now believes he has a chance to shape the region in his own image.
Since Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack triggered the ongoing war in Gaza, Israel has systematically degraded a network of Iranian allies across the region.
The war in Gaza has decimated the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but at a devastating price for the territory's civilian population. Last year, Israel also inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, severely weakening the group and contributing to the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, another key Iranian ally. And during a brief round of fighting with Iran last year, Israel knocked out much of its enemies' air-defence systems.
With Iran's "Axis of Resistance" in tatters and Iran unable to defend itself against Israel's air force, there was little to deter Israel from taking action this week.
Trump provided the final piece of the puzzle. After surprising Israel earlier this year with his resumption of nuclear talks with Iran, Trump grew frustrated with the lack of progress in those talks.
Notified about the Israeli plans, the US president appears to have put up little resistance, creating a rare window of opportunity for Israel.
Will Netanyahu succeed?
It is too early to say.
The Israeli operation appears to have gotten off to a smooth start -- with Israel striking dozens of targets and killing senior Iranian military figures. But it remains unclear how much damage Israel has inflicted on Iran's nuclear programme.
For now, the divisive and embattled Netanyahu appears to be riding a wave of support at home. Even the political opposition, which tried to topple Netanyahu in a parliamentary vote earlier in the week, has come out in support of the Iran operation.
But things could change quickly. After an initial wave of support for Israel's war against Hamas, the country is now deeply divided. With the fighting now over 20 months old, many believe Netanyahu has unnecessarily dragged out the conflict in a self-serving campaign to remain in office.
Likewise, public support for the Iranian operation could quickly turn if Iran's missile attacks on Israel cause heavy casualties or continue to disrupt life in Israel for an extended period. A debacle on the battlefield -- such as the capture of an Israeli fighter pilot by Iran -- could also reverse Netanyahu's fortunes.
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No Longer a Shadow War The confrontation that long seemed a shadow war is now fully in the open. Following the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel has been systematically focusing on the elimination of several of Iran's proxy forces. Tehran's regional sway has been weakened by Israel's attacks ranging from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, as well as by the ousting of Iran's close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Israel has also been targeting Iran with missiles and feels that it is weak, as sanctions have also hit Iran's oil exports and the economy is reeling from a collapsing currency and rampant inflation, as well as energy and water shortages. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD This is the moment that has been anticipated with great concern for a long time. 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STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Presently there is uncertainty about how much quantifiable damage Israel has dealt to Iran's nuclear program. But the more important question is if Israel's attack has destroyed Iran's will to move forward. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has positioned himself as a central actor regarding Iran. He may choose to pause after absorbing Iran's retaliation and allow a brief window for renewed diplomacy. The aim would be a deal that includes zero uranium enrichment and full dismantling of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Alternatively, Israel could pursue sustained military operations, as it has done with Hezbollah in Lebanon, to further degrade Iran's nuclear program and weaken its leadership and decision-making apparatus. For Iran, the calculus is more constrained. While it must respond and already has, its overriding interest will be to avoid a full-scale conflict it cannot win. The imbalance in military power with Israel backed by the US presence in the region is stark. Further, striking US assets would trigger an American response which is avoidable. Attacking US targets in the Gulf would also alienate key regional partners, undermining Iran's long-term position. Iran's leadership is therefore now likely to focus on regime survival; the path may be to signal readiness to reengage diplomatically after the tempers have cooled. There is a precedent, as Ayatollah Khomeini had taken a strategic decision to end the Iran–Iraq War, which he termed 'drinking the poisoned chalice'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The US Presence Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasised in the first official response to the attacks that this was a unilateral action by Israel and the US was not involved in the campaign. However, Iran is not buying that argument. The New York Times reports that Iran's Foreign Ministry said the attack could not have happened without 'coordination and authorisation' from the US and 'as Israel's main supporter, would also be responsible for the consequences'. For the US, its military and diplomatic presence across the region will now be directly in Iran's crosshairs. Iran has made no secret of their potential intent to strike at US interests in the event of such an acute challenge to their security. While there will be concern about the Gulf, the most acute threat will be in Iraq and Syria, where several thousand US troops remain deployed in the range of Iranian proxies. A resumption of Houthi targeting of US vessels off the coast of Yemen also seems inevitable. It is unlikely that the US will be able to benefit both ways from the Israeli strikes on Iran by enjoying the geopolitical benefits of a defanged Iranian nuclear infrastructure while avoiding the negative consequences of direct involvement in the operation. Conclusion The Israeli strike against Iran, confirmed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a 'targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat', marks a dangerous new chapter in the long-simmering tensions between these two regional rivals. While the assault on Iran could turn out to be a devastating blow against the regime in Tehran, it also brings to the fore a bewildering range of outcomes, including some that can directly affect not only Israel and the US but the Gulf countries. The real risk lies in the escalation of the conflict that could drag in the US and destabilise the Gulf with consequent reverberations across the globe. Should the conflict escalate, the potential for an economic calamity due to its impact on crude oil prices both regionally and globally will be high. The fact is that this cycle of violence indicates that while nothing is ever the same, yet nothing changes. As Clausewitz famously said, 'War is the continuation of politics by other means.' The political endgame of the Israeli military action now remains to be unveiled. More so, is that achievable and mindful of broader regional and global stability? Absence of such a strategy risks escalation without resolution. The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
