Ajit Ranade: West Asia's upheaval intensifies India's challenges of geopolitics

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Ajit Ranade The Israel-Iran war will make it harder for New Delhi to navigate global turbulence even as an oil flare-up poses a threat. But it could also spur domestic policy changes—in favour trade diversification, for example—that strengthen our economy. The fallout of the hostilities: Over a hundred people already killed, cities plunged into fear, critical infrastructure damaged and diplomacy left in the rubble. Gift this article
The world crossed a dangerous threshold on 13 June. Israel attacked Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases and even residential zones in order to kill top military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat and says that Iran's uranium enrichment programme had reached a point where a nuclear weapon was just weeks away.
The world crossed a dangerous threshold on 13 June. Israel attacked Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases and even residential zones in order to kill top military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat and says that Iran's uranium enrichment programme had reached a point where a nuclear weapon was just weeks away.
The enrichment, while in violation of Iran's commitment to complying with nuclear safeguards, as noted recently by the United Nations' watchdog, was still nowhere close to weapons grade, as per US experts. Hence Israel's unprovoked attack was a big shocker.
Israel so far had stopped short of full-scale war, preferring sabotage, cyber-attacks and targeted killings. But now Israel has crossed a line of no return for itself, Iran and the world. Iran launched a counter attack with over 200 ballistic missiles. It aimed at more than 150 Israeli targets that included nuclear sites and residential zones.
Also Read: Javier Blas: An Israel-Iran war may not rattle the oil market
The fallout of the hostilities: 130 people already killed, cities plunged into fear, critical infrastructure damaged and diplomacy left in the rubble. This escalation by Israel into war has upended Middle Eastern geopolitics. What was once a high-stakes diplomatic standoff has now escalated into a military confrontation. This will likely spiral up, notwithstanding global voices for restraint.
From a statement of US President Donald Trump, it is obvious that Israel had tacit American support, with all its military might. He has been drawn into making a choice that he would have rather avoided: i.e., choosing between playing peacemaker and backing Israel solidly.
On the other hand, all the Gulf states have condemned Israel's strike. But some like Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be quietly relieved at Iran's weakened position. Riyadh is Tehran's rival in a quest for regional dominance.
China has stayed pointedly silent. Iran is central to its energy security and infrastructure ambitions for the Belt and Road Initiative, but Israel is also a key technology partner. Maybe China wants to position itself as a non-interventionist peacemaker, striking a contrast with unconditional support by the US for Israel, the aggressor. This Middle East distraction for Washington can work to China's advantage, as it gains manoeuvring space to flex muscle on Taiwan and in the wider Indo-Pacific.
Russia had asked for an immediate Security Council meeting and resolution, knowing full well that the US will stonewall it with a veto. Hence its condemnations have lacked force.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which India is a member, has condemned Israel's attack, but India has carefully distanced itself from the SCO's common statement. Europe is alarmed by Israel, but not sympathetic to Iran, given the latter's record on enrichment.
These actions of various international players reveal a global system where major powers are acting increasingly based on narrow transactional interests rather than any shared security architecture. It has injected fresh volatility into an already fragile global order.
Israel has America's political, military and diplomatic support, whereas no major power is unequivocally with Iran. At most, it has ambivalent, conditional or weak support from various quarters. Non-state actors that could have aided it, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have been weakened. Hence, Tehran's resilience will be tested and it might resort to desperate measures. It has threatened strikes on the military bases of Israel's allies. These include US bases.
It has also drawn attention to another lever of high-impact force with a threat to bar the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, from where 20% of the world's oil flows.
Meanwhile the Ali Khamenei administration is facing strong opposition at home, which Israel has sought to exploit.
Instability in West Asia affects India deeply, for the stakes are immediate and structural. Some 60% of India's crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. We have 8 million citizens in the Gulf region. Oil prices above $100 will worsen inflation, widen the current account deficit, hasten the rupee's fall and strain the fiscal deficit. Last year net inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) was almost negligible.
Investors will now adopt a wait- and-watch attitude, thus hurting our growth prospects. New Delhi has to balance its energy security and Chahabar interests in Iran with its tech and defence partnership with Israel. It cannot remain silent on Israel's attack on Iran sovereignty because that would seem like moral abdication.
This is the third such conflict where India finds itself locked in a narrow diplomatic navigation route and forced into a tight balancing act. Can New Delhi publicly and strongly condemn Russia in Ukraine? Can it condemn Israel's ongoing treatment of people in Gaza?
It has to protect its strategic autonomy, while remaining a credible power with aspirations to UN Security Council membership and great power status. India's response reflects preference for non-alignment and quiet diplomacy.
Also Read: Israel's war on Iran to hit Indian workforce
India's foremost priority is the domestic economy, given our vulnerability to commodity prices, oil, exchange rates and investment flows. We cannot count on discounted Russian crude, not least because of the likely US reaction. Our free trade agreement with the UK will kick in next year, and a treaty with the US is uncertain.
The big rate cut by the Reserve Bank surprised the market, but now in hindsight seems like a great pre-emptive strike. A large monetary stimulus will be useful ahead of signs of economic weakening. There is also massive liquidity injection. Prior to the present conflict, the 2025-26 GDP growth estimate of 6.5% was the lowest in four years. It might get worse, along with world growth, as even the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects points out.
India's private sector investment-to-GDP ratio has been stagnating at 10% for a decade. A recent government survey of private sector capital expenditure intentions points to a decline this year. The government will have to keep up public capex to provide a growth impetus, as it has done in the past four years. On FDI, we must think creatively, as we need at least 2% of GDP on a net basis.
New Delhi must revisit its stance on Chinese investment to allow it at least in non-sensitive sectors, such as automotive products (especially electric vehicles), infrastructure and renewable energy. Chinese exports can use Indian value chains.
In the medium term, we need to diversify our energy sources and export markets. Our services export boom must go beyond Western customers. And, of course, we need a great thrust on building human capital, skilling and research.
Paradoxically, the West Asian crisis might be an opportunity for India to emerge stronger with a bigger stature.
The author is senior fellow with Pune International Centre. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.