Opinion: The global challenges to India's growth this year
US News: Reports indicate that Vladimir Putin's bodyguards collect his fecal waste in a special \"poop suitcase\" during foreign trips, including his recent meet
Times Of India
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India can't fight Trump tariffs with emotion. Smart talks, sector relief, reforms are key
These sectors not only anchor the merchandise exports to the US but also directly affect employment generation and the livelihoods of millions of workers and farmers. The T&A sector, faces a tariff disadvantage of over 30 percentage points compared with competitors like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam, threatening its competitive position in a key export market. Gems and jewellery exports, worth USD 11.9 billion, face similar challenge against suppliers such as Turkey, Vietnam, and Thailand. Auto parts, which constitute 3% of India's exports to the US, are also vulnerable. While this represents just 1.56% of GDP and 7.38% of total exports, far from a catastrophe for a USD 3.9 trillion economy, the impact is heavily concentrated in labour-intensive and high-value sectors such as textiles and apparel, gems and jewellery, auto parts and agricultural products, notably shrimp. The recent escalation of tariffs by the United States against Indian exports has significantly altered the landscape of India-US trade relations. Announced by US President Donald Trump on July 31st and August 6th, 2025, the measures impose a 25% tariff plus a 25% penalty tariff respectively on exports from countries importing Russian oil (in the form of secondary sanctions). India's purchase of Russian oil remains fully compliant with international norms and is guided by cost competitiveness and energy security imperatives. Our analysis shows that USD 60.85 billion around 70% of India's goods exports to the US are now exposed to the 50% tariff. In agriculture, shrimp exports will be worst hit with 50% tariffs higher than those applied to competitors like Ecuador, Indonesia, and Vietnam, in addition to the existing anti-dumping (1.8- 3.0%) and countervailing duties (5.7%) India faces. These are sectors where buyers can switch sourcing relatively quickly, which gives US importers bargaining power and weakens India's negotiating position. The policy brief recommends a three-pronged strategic response. Smart negotiations with strategy, not emotion The US remains too large and too important to write off, especially as India advances trade deals with the UK and EU (DGFT, 2025). Instead, India must work to re-engage US with smart, tactical negotiation, next rounds of which are scheduled this month end. The key sticking point has always been agriculture. US demands on GM products should be addressed on the basis of science rather than ideology. The Vajpayee government had allowed GM cotton, and emphasised the power of science in transforming agriculture, as he quoted 'Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan, Jai Vigyan'. India imposes restrictions on import of soybean and corn from US giving the GM context. However, it is ironic that cotton seed and its oil is already in our food chain, as 95% of our cotton is now GM (Gulati and Juneja, 2022). India can ensure that imported GM corn can be used for ethanol blending or as poultry feed. Similar is the case of soya, where India restricts imports of GM soya but imports it in the form of soya oil. India must also question its own tariff structure. In 2024, India's average agricultural tariff stood at 36.7%, nearly seven times higher than the US average of 5%; while the trade-weighted average was an even steeper 64.3%, compared to just 4.2% for the US (WTO Tariff Profiles, 2025). Yet, in certain cases, these high barriers are selectively relaxed; For example, India imported USD 17.09 billion worth of edible oils covering about 57% of its consumption at tariffs below 30% (DFPD, 2025). The argument is simple- if edible oils and pulses can enter at less than 30% duty, there is no logic in maintaining tariffs of 120% on walnuts, 100% on chicken legs, 70% on rice (despite India being the world's largest exporter), 60% on SMP, 45% on soyabean, 50% on corn, apples and 30% on cranberries. Edible oil tariffs are reduced during global price spikes, effectively shielding one sector while leaving others exposed. For non-sensitive goods without strong domestic production capacity such as walnuts (120%), berries like cranberries and blueberries (30%), and breakfast cereals (30%) tariffs could be rationalised. On dairy, India could explore a certification system-similar to halal-that assures buyers the cattle are non-meat fed or pasture-grazed. In dairy, protecting smallholder farmers is the concern, India could adopt a tariff rate quota (TRQ), keeping prohibitive tariffs (similar to what Japan or Korea does) only beyond a certain volume threshold, such as 2 MMT. Annex 4 lists commodities on which India currently levies tariffs exceeding 50% on US imports (WTO, 2025). This inconsistency weakens India's credibility in trade talks. The reality is that high protectionist tariffs breed inefficiency. India should take this as an opportunity to reform like the 1991 moment. The fact is that India needs major reforms in rationalizing its import duties, irrespective of Trump's pressures. Rather than shielding agriculture with blanket protections, India should invest in R&D, improve supply chain efficiency and modernise infrastructure reforms on the scale of the 1991 liberalisation. This adversity should be converted to an opportunity through domestic reforms and India must focus on innovations, high productivity and R&D to enhance our export competitive strength, globally. Above all, India must cool the temperature in negotiations and engage with the US with logic, not emotion. India should not protect one sector risking huge loss to other sectors. Warn you, if service sector is hit, it would be huge impact on India's skilled youth and the economy as a whole. To help balance the trade deficit, India could consider sourcing 15-20% of its crude oil imports from the US. India must set its tariffs rationally. Smart negotiation, combined with flexibility and internal reforms, will be the key to sustaining India's export competitiveness in an increasingly volatile global trade order. Immediate sector specific targeted relief structure A second urgent measure is targeted relief to highly affected sectors, through temporary subsidies, rebates or incentives, should be rolled out within weeks for sectors such as T&A, gems & jewellery, and shrimp. T&A sector which face a 50% tariff compared to 19-20% for competitors like Pakistan and Vietnam, this price gap is too wide to absorb without major job losses in an industry that employs over 45 million people (Gulati et al., 2025). A temporary subsidy or support scheme, to the tune of 25-30% of export value, could neutralise the tariff differential. Preserving the sector's viability is critical not only for export earnings but for preventing mass layoffs in labour-intensive clusters across India. Likewise, the gems & jewellery sector, anchored by Surat's globally renowned diamond-cutting and polishing hubs, employing lakhs of people, needs immediate fiscal cushioning to prevent erosion of its market share to competitors in Turkey, Vietnam, Thailand etc. Similarly, shrimp exports require urgent support. The states of Andhra, West Bengal and Odisha depend heavily on aquaculture for rural employment and livelihoods (MPEDA, 2025). The new tariffs threaten both livelihoods and political stability, as key state and national leaders will face mounting pressure from affected communities (Reuters, 2025b). Finally, a nationalist consumption drive could help 9 absorb some of the excess supply domestically (especially with the upcoming festival seasons), with campaigns to promote Brand Bharat as part of a broader movement of nationalist fervour, especially from the ramparts of the Red Fort by PM Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech. Also read: Indian foreign policy is in free fall. Can we balance national pride with new power reality? High-priority diversification of export markets Overdependence on the US must be reduced by actively cultivating alternative markets. India must conclude the FTA with the EU, advance the UK deal, and seriously explore joining the CPTPP, an open, rules-based trade bloc that includes Japan, Korea and Australia (Ahluwalia, 2025). Beyond these, the most promising avenues for expansion lie in Africa, ASEAN, the Middle East and Brazil. In Brazil, where India's agricultural exports stood at USD 130.5 million in CY2024 compared with imports of USD 2.91 billion, there is clear scope to bridge the USD 2.78 billion trade gap by targeting high-demand imports such as malt extracts, milk products (including SMP), basmati rice, frozen French fries, fresh apples, and garlic (ITC Trade Map, CY 2024). Africa, with an USD 80 billion agri-import market where India's share is only 8%, offers significant potential under AfCFTA, COMESA, and SACU frameworks to redirect surplus capacity from the US into staples and value-added products ranging from rice (USD 4.2 billion), sugar (USD 1.5 billion), and meat (USD 800 million) to pulses, oilseeds, spices etc (Rath et al., 2025). In ASEAN, India's 2024 exports included meat (USD 1.5 billion), marine products (USD 285.4 million), sugar (USD 167.4 million), groundnuts (USD 620 million), and rice (USD 500 million), with further potential in spices, fresh and processed produce, tea, coffee, oilseeds, dairy, and animal feed. India has a spectacular diplomatic relation with middle east, and the region has annual agri-import demand exceeding USD 100 billion and several GCC members reliant on imports for over 80% of their food needs. This is another key destination already taking rice (USD 5.05 billion), sugar (USD 242.04 million), meat (USD 1.7 billion), and tea (USD 345 million) from India, while also offering strong opportunities in dairy, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables, packaged foods, etc supported by cold-chain investments and long-term supply contracts (Rath et al., 2025). Conclusion In navigating the Trump's Tariff Blow, India must hold firm to the principle that sovereignty cannot be compromised, especially when external pressures seek to dictate its fair economic choices. India is a rising power and no one can halt its momentum. The path forward lies in smart negotiations that defend national interests which unlock opportunities for growth. This is not a personal battle between leaders, but a matter of national interest especially protecting jobs, securing market access and safeguarding strategic autonomy. India's response must blend tactical flexibility with structural reforms that enhance competitiveness across sectors. India needs to negotiate smartly, provide immediate, targeted relief to highly-hit sectors, and diversify export markets on high priority to navigate the tariff blow. The success of our leaders will be ensuring that short-term disruptions give way to long-term gains, reinforcing India's position as a trusted and indispensable player in the global economy. This is an abstract from a policy brief by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). Ashok Gulati is a Distinguished Professor at ICRIER. Sulakshana Rao is a Senior fellow at ICRIER. Tanay Suntwal is a Research Assistant with the Agriculture Policy, Sustainability, and Innovation Team at ICRIER.
