3 decision-making tips for navigating through a fog of uncertainty

Fast Company

12-08-2025

Everyone talks about making business decisions based on numbers, data, and facts, including me. But what do you do when there aren't hard facts and you have to make the best decision based on unclear information or unexpected changes?
Leadership isn't about having all the answers. It's about navigating the current business climate, using the right frameworks, communicating clearly, and making well-paced and thoughtful decisions.
WHAT DOES AMBIGUITY IN BUSINESS LOOK LIKE?
There are a few common times when leaders must operate even when the path forward is still forming.
MARKET SHIFTS
It's great to have a set of goals to accomplish and roadmaps for 5-10 years into the future. But sometimes plans need to get re-evaluated. For example, the Covid-19 pandemic taught us that businesses or entire industries can change substantially overnight. So pivoting as quickly as possible is vital to the survival of your business.
NEW TECHNOLOGY
In almost every industry, businesses are debating whether to adopt AI -powered technology. And they're having to decide quickly without being certain that this tech will actually move them in the right direction. This involves considering everything from ethics to productivity, and decision making must come from a place of being comfortable with not knowing everything.
GLOBAL CRISES
During major worldwide events like political conflict, natural disasters or widespread disease, many industries become affected. The impacts can be direct or indirect, manifesting as disruptions to the supply chain, increases in demand, government intervention, labor shortages, or shifting consumer behaviors. These situations may also impact trade routes, commodity prices, or access to materials. Considering many of these global situations don't have exact end dates, business leaders must learn how to make decisions during ambiguous times.
HOW TO STRATEGIZE WHEN YOU'RE UNSURE
We all experience times of uncertainty in any given market. What matters is taking a step back so you can plan and prepare to win strategically. Instead of guesswork, read the market and determine what your competition is doing. With these three steps, you can plan to scale, not to fail.
Start shifting your mindset away from needing to perfect decisions and, instead, prioritize making clear decisions. The trick is to focus on clarity, not a certainty that you'll have fixed outcomes to help make the right decision. Your team needs you to communicate what you know and what you don't know, remind them of company values, and explain how you've decided to move forward so far. An effective way to develop this mindset is adopting a values-first or probabilistic decision-making frameworks.
Let's discuss a values-first framework. We all have values, ethics, and standards in our life and business, and they can become a basic framework for empowering your teams to make decisions. Values-driven guidelines can support strategies for crucial activities like targeting your ideal clients or hiring people who will carry out your mission and vision. Of course, you can apply this kind of framework anywhere in your company.
Probabilistic frameworks are a structured approach that utilizes probability theory to model, analyze, and predict outcomes in any situation. With it, you can quantify the likelihood of different possibilities and make informed decisions. Teams can ask themselves what the likeliest scenarios are, then determine how prepared they are for each one. This is effective when forecasting, looking at new markets, or budgeting because it helps with risk assessment and staying adaptive.
2. COMMUNICATE TRANSPARENTLY
I'm a big believer in communicating as openly and transparently as you can with your team, and it's even more important in uncertain times. If you act like you have all the answers when you don't, employees can lose trust in you. Your team members want to know about the aspects that matter most to them. Of course, too much transparency around every detail of company operations can create panic. Sometimes it's best to simply say, 'I don't know yet, but we're doing this until we gain more information.' Then share regular updates, even short ones, to keep everyone in the loop and reduce confusion.
3. PACE WITH PURPOSE
In times of ambiguity, it seems like everything is urgent and requires quick decisions. But sometimes, pausing is the right answer. It can help you determine what's most important to work on. Create time for regular debriefs, reflection, and small-group brainstorming sessions. For small decisions or slight shifts, 10-minute breaks go a long way toward from shifting from a reactive mindset to a reflective one. During big decisions, provide pause points of at least 24 hours before the team continues its intervention.
Being a great leader requires being adaptive and guiding teams through ambiguous times with clarity. You can do this by reminding everyone of your company values and creating different frameworks for making informed decisions. Move forward with transparency and provide frequent updates so everyone's on the same page. Finally, don't rush. Create intentional pauses to reflect and assess.