Study shows Reform on track to become UK's biggest party in parliament
Reform has been riding high in the polls amid disaffection over the state of the UK's public services. (EPA Images pic)
LONDON : Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK would be the biggest party in parliament if the country held a general election today, according to a nationwide projection, underlining the political danger to prime minister Keir Starmer.
Reform would win 271 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, with Starmer's governing Labour party second on 178, polling firm YouGov said today.
That would leave a hung parliament in which no party could govern alone.
The Tories, who already posted their worst ever general election result last year when they won 121 seats, would plumb new depths on just 46, while the Liberal Democrats would leapfrog them, winning 81 seats.
Following Labour's landslide victory last year, another general election is not expected until 2029.
The poll highlights major changes in the UK's electoral landscape, as the country appears poised to move beyond the Tory-Labour duopoly that's dominated politics for a century.
Amid disaffection over the state of the country's public services, Farage's right-wing outfit – which won just five seats last year – has been riding high in the polls.
The Reform leader has warned he's coming for Labour after his party made huge gains in a set of local elections earlier this year.
Reform has emulated America's department of government efficiency – DOGE – and pledged to slash waste in UK local councils.
Former chairman Zia Yusuf told Bloomberg's In The City podcast this week that Britain is being held back by Labour's economic policies.
Fragmentation
The YouGov survey also suggested Labour cabinet ministers including deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, home secretary Yvette Cooper, business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, defence secretary John Healey and education secretary Bridget Phillipson would lose their seats if a general election was held now.
Former foreign secretary James Cleverly, of the Conservatives, would lose his seat to Reform, YouGov said.
Labour and the Tories combined would win just 41% of votes, according to YouGov.
That's half the level of their joint share as recently as 2017.
'That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade,' YouGov said.
YouGov's first MRP since the 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as the largest party and the Tories pushed into fourth place.
YouGov's poll also sees the Scottish National Party, the Greens and Plaid Cymru advance.
The pollster used so-called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification modelling, which aims to give a more detailed electoral prediction than standard polling – its first such survey since last year's July 4 vote.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Star
18 minutes ago
- The Star
China, Britain deepen green finance cooperation with new work stream
LONDON, June 26 (Xinhua) -- Financial professionals and experts from China and Britain on Thursday formally launched a joint work stream in London, in a bid to strengthen bilateral cooperation on sustainable finance and biodiversity protection. The UK-China Nature and Biodiversity Finance Work Stream, initiated by the China-UK Green Finance Taskforce and co-led by Bank of China and Standard Chartered, will focus on cross-border collaboration and innovation in areas such as natural capital valuation, biodiversity-related disclosure tools and nature-focused investment mechanisms. The launch coincided with a high-level forum hosted by Bank of China's London branch, titled "From Policy to Impact: A Global Perspective on the Current State of Sustainable Development." The forum, part of the official program of this year's London Climate Action Week, brought together over 100 participants from financial institutions, government agencies, regulators, think tanks and academia across China, Britain and Europe. "Green finance and sustainable development have become central to global high-quality growth and the transformation of financial systems," said Fang Wenjian, CEO of Bank of China (UK) Limited, during the forum's opening remarks. Charles Bowman, co-chair of the China-UK Green Finance Taskforce, said the initiative came at a critical time. "We must accelerate global capital flows to tackle the climate crisis," he said. "China and the UK are co-leading this effort through their net-zero commitments and renewable energy investments." London Climate Action Week, founded in 2019 by climate think tank E3G and the Mayor of London's office, serves as a global platform for policymakers, business leaders, investors and academics to advance climate action and sustainable development.
The Star
4 hours ago
- The Star
Jamaica to take fight for slavery reparations to King Charles
LONDON (Reuters) -Jamaica will ask King Charles to request legal advice from the London-based Judicial Committee of the Privy Council, the final court of appeal for UK overseas territories and some Commonwealth nations, on the issue of slavery reparations. Under the Judicial Committee Act of 1833, Charles, who remains Jamaica's head of state after the country gained independence from Britain in 1962, has the authority to refer matters to the council for consideration. Hundreds of thousands of enslaved Africans were shipped to Jamaica, and many scholars and advocates say the legacy of that period has resulted in or played a role in today's inequities. Calls for reparations are longstanding and moves such as the appeal to Charles help to keep the topic in the public spotlight. A backlash against it has also been growing, and many of Europe's leaders have opposed even talking about it. Jamaica's culture minister, Olivia Grange, said her government was seeking the council to consider whether the forced transport of enslaved Africans to Jamaica and their subsequent enslavement was lawful, and if it constituted a crime against humanity. It is also calling on the council to examine whether Britain is "under an obligation to provide a remedy" to Jamaica, not only for slavery but also for its enduring consequences. "We will be submitting a petition to His Majesty King Charles III to refer to the Privy Council a set of questions that we want answered within his current position as head of state of Jamaica," Grange said in the Jamaican parliament on Tuesday. Nicola Diggle, an expert in Privy Council appeals at London law firm Blake Morgan, said the monarch could refer any matter to the council. Lower courts in countries such as Jamaica, where the council is the final court of appeal, can also refer cases. However, it may decide the matter is unsuitable for its opinion. The legal weight of the council's recommendations can vary. They could either be treated as a court judgment or non-enforceable legal opinions. Charles expressed deep sorrow over slavery in a speech to Commonwealth leaders in 2022 but Britain, like other former colonial powers, has so far rejected demands for reparations. The petition comes after Jamaica's government presented a bill in December last year to ditch the king as head of state. (Reporting by Catarina Demony; Editing by Alison Williams)
Free Malaysia Today
5 hours ago
- Free Malaysia Today
Study shows Reform on track to become UK's biggest party in parliament
Reform has been riding high in the polls amid disaffection over the state of the UK's public services. (EPA Images pic) LONDON : Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK would be the biggest party in parliament if the country held a general election today, according to a nationwide projection, underlining the political danger to prime minister Keir Starmer. Reform would win 271 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, with Starmer's governing Labour party second on 178, polling firm YouGov said today. That would leave a hung parliament in which no party could govern alone. The Tories, who already posted their worst ever general election result last year when they won 121 seats, would plumb new depths on just 46, while the Liberal Democrats would leapfrog them, winning 81 seats. Following Labour's landslide victory last year, another general election is not expected until 2029. The poll highlights major changes in the UK's electoral landscape, as the country appears poised to move beyond the Tory-Labour duopoly that's dominated politics for a century. Amid disaffection over the state of the country's public services, Farage's right-wing outfit – which won just five seats last year – has been riding high in the polls. The Reform leader has warned he's coming for Labour after his party made huge gains in a set of local elections earlier this year. Reform has emulated America's department of government efficiency – DOGE – and pledged to slash waste in UK local councils. Former chairman Zia Yusuf told Bloomberg's In The City podcast this week that Britain is being held back by Labour's economic policies. Fragmentation The YouGov survey also suggested Labour cabinet ministers including deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, home secretary Yvette Cooper, business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, defence secretary John Healey and education secretary Bridget Phillipson would lose their seats if a general election was held now. Former foreign secretary James Cleverly, of the Conservatives, would lose his seat to Reform, YouGov said. Labour and the Tories combined would win just 41% of votes, according to YouGov. That's half the level of their joint share as recently as 2017. 'That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade,' YouGov said. YouGov's first MRP since the 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as the largest party and the Tories pushed into fourth place. YouGov's poll also sees the Scottish National Party, the Greens and Plaid Cymru advance. The pollster used so-called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification modelling, which aims to give a more detailed electoral prediction than standard polling – its first such survey since last year's July 4 vote.
