Lilly's Zepbound Keeps Weight Off for Three Years, Study Finds
Patients regularly taking Eli Lilly & Co. 's obesity shot Zepbound tend to keep the weight off for at least three years, with most regaining 5% or less of the pounds they shed.
A company-funded study found patients hit their lowest weight in just under two years on average. They gained roughly 3.7% of it back over the following 18 months, according a new analysis of 690 patients to be presented next month at the European Congress on Obesity in Spain.
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Wegovy Use Among U.S. Teens Jumps 50% in 2024: Truveta
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Exclusive-Wegovy Use Up 50% Among US Teens
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"It's promising that more young people are using these medications, but it's still a very small percentage of patients with severe obesity that are getting access to them," said Dr. Cate Varney, director of obesity medicine at the University of Virginia Health system. "When lifestyle changes alone are insufficient, we need these additional tools." For its analysis, Truveta reviewed the electronic health records of 1.3 million patients ages 12 through 17. The data covers 30 U.S. health systems with more than 900 hospitals and 20,000 clinics across the country. The analysis did not include other GLP-1 drugs, including Novo's Ozempic and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which are not approved to treat obesity in adolescents, or compounded versions of these therapies. Wegovy became an option to treat adolescents in late 2022 after decades in which the conventional approaches of diet, exercise and counseling largely failed. About 8 million American teens, or 23% of people ages 12 to 19, have obesity, up from 5% in 1980, according to U.S. government data. Young people with obesity run a much higher risk of developing chronic, costly, life-shortening conditions like type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular and liver diseases. In January 2023, the American Academy of Pediatrics strongly recommended that doctors provide weight-loss drugs to children with obesity starting at age 12. Yet the medical community has not uniformly embraced GLP-1s for adolescents. Some doctors are hesitant because the drugs' long-term safety for children during a critical phase of development is unknown, and the treatments may need to be used indefinitely. Overall, there are limited options for many teens and their parents because insurance plans often do not cover any treatment for obesity, including intensive behavioral counseling, visits with a dietician or the new GLP-1 medications. 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Kennedy Jr. has criticized the idea of prescribing Ozempic or Wegovy widely to children to treat obesity. In a federal health report he released last month, GLP-1 drugs were cited as an example of the "overmedicalization of our kids." It noted a lack of "long-term safety data, raising the specter of unforeseen problems that interrupt, damage, or impair metabolism and growth development." Novo in a statement said semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, 'did not appear to affect growth or pubertal development' during its clinical trials involving teens. For many adults, Novo said, obesity starts in childhood or adolescence, and "we are confident in the proven safety and efficacy of our GLP-1 medicines." Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound is in late-stage clinical trials for use by adolescents. Lilly told Reuters that "there has been no evidence to date suggesting impairment in growth or metabolism" from GLP-1 medications. Dr. Robert Siegel, a pediatrician and director of the Center for Better Health and Nutrition at Cincinnati Children's Hospital, said about 15% of adolescents being treated there were prescribed Wegovy or a similar GLP-1 medication from July 2021 to July 2023. They include patients being treated for type 2 diabetes for which the GLP-1 drugs were originally developed. Siegel said he prefers to start teens on three to six months of intensive lifestyle management before even considering medication. While obesity specialists can help navigate potential risks from the drugs, many primary-care providers need more training, he said. They may not have the equipment to monitor for the loss of muscle mass - a side effect of these medicines - or lack the resources to work with families over an extended period on healthier eating and exercise. 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LONDON,ENGLAND - MAY 30: A photo illustration of a Mounjaro pen on May 30 2025 in London, England. ... More Mounjaro is a treatment for weight loss and type 2 diabetes. (Photo by Peter Dazeley via Getty Images) Question: Why would you pay 81 times earnings for AbbVie stock when you can buy LLY for a similar valuation of 76 times earnings? You wouldn't, especially when you consider three simple facts: Safe Bet? While Eli Lilly (LLY) might not be a traditional "safe haven" stock, its past performance during market shocks offers some perspective. During the 2022 inflation shock, LLY stock saw a 19% decline, and it fell 23% during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic market correction. However, when compared to the broader market, LLY has demonstrated relative resilience. The S&P 500 index experienced a more significant peak-to-trough decline of 25% during the 2022 inflation shock and a 34% fall during the COVID-19 pandemic correction. Furthermore, LLY stock has already absorbed some significant impact, having fallen over 20% from its 52-week high of over $970 to current levels below $750. In contrast, if you're more even handed, consider the Trefis High Quality strategy, has outperformed the market with more than 91% returns since inception - as evident in HQ performance metrics. Separately, see – Merck Stock's Ticking Keytruda Time Bomb Winner In Obesity Drugs: If you generally believe the obesity is here to stay and with or without healthcare policy changes, Eli Lilly may not be a bad long-term bet, given its current position. Layer on the fact that Lilly, with its superior efficacy, is a leader in this obesity treatment race. The market for GLP-1 drugs is expected to grow to $150 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating through their GLP-1 drugs that have collectively generated over $40 billion in sales last year. Worry about whether daily pills, weekly injections, or combination therapies will win the battle. The race may be too early to call, but Lilly is positioning itself across multiple fronts with both injectable Zepbound and promising oral GLP-1 formulations showing nearly 8% weight loss in trials. What Could Go Wrong? Eli Lilly's earnings could disappoint, and its rapid growth might slow from 30% to around 20% in the coming years. This potential slowdown could be due to increased competition in the obesity treatment market, as more pharmaceutical companies are achieving success with their clinical trials. Notably, Boehringer Ingelheim, Amgen, Viking Therapeutics, and Roche are all developing promising therapies that could challenge Eli Lilly's market position. Then there is the unexpected, unimagined. Definitely do not touch this if you can't stand more downside from here. Worse thing you could do is sell at that point. Instead talk to an adviser who's seen four bear markets in the last 30 years about Trefis HQ strategy plus other clever ways you can take advantage in the current market. Clue: much money is made in this market, if you don't lose your nerve. All said, if you're a long term investor and want to invest and forget for the next 3-5 years, Eli Lilly right now could be an interesting entry point.
