Wegovy Use Among U.S. Teens Jumps 50% in 2024: Truveta
Novo Nordisk (NVO, Financials) is seeing more U.S. teens start treatment with its GLP-1 drug Wegovy; new data shows a 50% increase in prescriptions in 2024. According to health tech firm Truveta, the average rate climbed to 14.8 per 100,000 adolescents; that's up from 9.9 in 2023the first full year Wegovy was available for kids aged 12 and older.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Signs with BA.
The data, drawn from 1.3 million patients across 30 health systems, points to growing comfort among doctors and families. Still, use remains limited; roughly 8 million U.S. teens live with obesity, but only a fraction are getting this class of medication.
At Nemours Children's Hospital in Delaware, about 25% of patients in its obesity program were prescribed a GLP-1 in 2024; that figure nearly doubled from the year prior. On average, those teens lost 15 pounds (6.8 kg) within six to 12 months; some lost more with longer use.
Access, however, remains uneven. Many families face insurance rejections; others worry about safety over the long run. U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has criticized widespread pediatric use of these drugs; his report cited concerns over metabolism and development.
Novo Nordisk said its clinical trials showed no impact on teen growth or puberty; Eli Lilly (LLY, Financials), which is running late-stage trials for its Zepbound drug in adolescents, echoed that viewstating no signs of growth or metabolic harm so far.
Why it matters: The teen uptick signals rising demand for long-term obesity care; however, pushback from regulators, slow insurance uptake, and the need for more data could stall momentum.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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Oracle's cloud infrastructure is built on the latest networking technology that combines Remote Direct Memory Access capabilities and it has zero-latency communication between servers. This technology is highly tailored for high-performance workloads, where fractions of a second count, as is the case in the financial services' trading systems or analytics applications. Instead of competing in general-purpose computing oracle's unique approach allows it to establish itself in performance-critical enterprise markets. Competition Database Competition: Defending the Crown Jewel The database sector illustrates a similar multi-directional competitive terrain where Oracle simultaneously faces challenges from various rivals. Traditional companies, such as IBM DB2 and Microsoft SQL Server, are vying for enterprise workloads even as fresh entrants like Amazon Aurora, Google BigQuery, and many NoSQL databases are threatening other segments of Oracle's supremacy. Amazon Aurora is one of the most direct threats on the technological front to Oracle's database supremacy. Aurora promises MySQL and PostgreSQL compatibility at a very low cost and with a much better performance than "traditional" databases in the cloud. Built from the ground up for cloud computing and it manages the storage and compute resources according to demand. Google BigQuery's goal is a different one, analytics, and data warehousing of a serverless architecture that frees infrastructure management entirely. The user submits the query and gets charged for the data processed, without worrying about the underlying hardware or software configuration. This is an attractive proposition to corporations, which seek to reduce the operational complexity. Oracle has a comeback to the database rivalry that is to leverage the innovation of the Autonomous Database that stands for a fundamental rethinking of database management. Instead of solely soaring cyclical overheads or absorbing capital as an expense, it is Android that has the brain of the database engine. The Intelligent featured systems built with Oracle have historically been a strong suit only in the defense against competition but this time the new approach saves the part of the code. Their fundamental philosophy lies in a system capable of handling the workload by itself, automatically, that will increase the value from any other application. The technological brilliance of this approach lies in how it transforms Oracle's decades of database optimization expertise into machine learning algorithms. These algorithms continuously analyze database operations, identifying optimal configurations that even experienced administrators might miss. As more organizations use the technology, the collective intelligence grows stronger, creating a network effect that benefits all users while strengthening Oracle's competitive position. The Cloud Transformation Risk: Navigating a Fundamental Business Model Shift Oracle's highest risk factor is actually the ongoing transformation from a traditional software licensing model to a cloud-based subscription business. Think of this scenario as a restaurant that has been serving customers who dine in for decades and needs to suddenly become mainly a delivery service. It does not just change who the customers are, how the restaurant will operate, and the revenue model, but all of this happens in a completely new way. Financial considerations are really what the transition brings insecurities in the beginning. Traditional software licenses bring in the money with a few of very big upfront paymentsimagine you get an entire year of salary all at once in January. Cloud subscriptions, as in the previous year's credit appears many months after revenue is actually generated, spread that income across an entire year or more. Due to this, Oracle is perceived to have a "revenue recognition headwind," that is, total revenue could slump even when there is business growth. During the transforming period Oracle has to keep profitability up and at the same time invest massively in the cloud infrastructure, this performance creates a delicate threading act which may drain financial resources. The risk of customer behavior adds to the complexity of the situation. Unlike the customers who already cloud model based decisions to Oracle's cloud platform as they are uncertain. Potential customers weigh against the competition with the possibility of choosing companies that are more honest about their production capabilities and how they will be. So do they feel insecure in the period when Oracle will eat the market share from other established cloud providers and also divert its own business from traditional ones Valuation Oracle, Inc. has a P/E ratio of 39, which can be referred to as a middle range. According to its earnings multiple, Oracle is significantly lower than high-tech companies like ServiceNow (136) and Palo Alto Networks (106), but stands higher than a well-established tech firm Microsoft (35.6). This means investors have a moderate perception of Oracle's growthbetter than old-school enterprise software firms but not able to reach the standard of explosive growth pure-play cloud providers expect. The P/S ratio of 8.5 also tells the same narrative, implying that it has reasonable revenue multiple compared to ServiceNow's 18.2 or Palo Alto's 14.8. On top of that, Oracle's EV/EBITDA of 22.9 is almost equal to Microsoft's 22.7, signifying operations efficiency and cash generation in a similar way. These measures epitomize the transitional situation of Oracleinvestors appreciate the significant cloud transformation progress and the solid fundamentals of the company, yet it is not valued at the premium multiples that pure-play cloud firms command. If Oracle executes its cloud strategy effectively, experiencing an uptick in growth and with it the problem of market skepticism about the transformation timeline, the company will create possible gains. The situation is both a chance and a challenge for Oracle to further develop with the ongoing transformation. Guru Holdings Donald Morgan's 10.84% share in the company (worth $93.27M) which remains unchanged in recent activity suggests that he has full faith in Oracle's long-term transformation. However, his +268.5% gain demonstrates the fact that he bought shares much earlier, perhaps when the cloud transition increased in speed. His passive attitude is evidence of the trust he has in the management plan. Stan Moss has a 5.54% stake ($1.76B) with a recent 17.58% increase (1.89M shares) shows that he is engaged in active accumulation, which is a sign of Polen Capital considers Oracle to be undervalued right now. His average return of +7.5% suggests he entered more recently, possibly betting on the cloud transformation's success. Recommendation The whole investment scheme is based on the successful implementation of this technological transformation while at the same time keeping its database market leadership. The combination of the two will allow the firm to sit on top of the significant value created by the enterprises going for digital transformation in a faster way. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio