Labour's prisons gamble has made our streets less safe

Telegraph

4 days ago

When Labour came to power they inherited a justice system in crisis. Our prisons, awash with violence and drugs, were almost full. The country was weeks away from running out of jail cells, then running out of court and police cells in short order. So Labour gambled. They chose more controlled early releases under 'SDS40', under which certain prisoners would be released 40 per cent of the way through their sentence. The Government's aim was to buy enough time for prison-building, the Sentencing Review and Courts Review to avert catastrophe.
Now, a year later, thanks to Charles Hymas's reporting, we know that gamble is failing. For every four prisoners released in the first three months of the year, three have been 'recalled' to prison. This happens either when an offender commits another offence, fails to attend meetings with probation officers or 'breaches their licence' – breaking conditions designed to prevent future offending and protect victims.
The data from the Ministry of Justice covers the first quarter of this year and shows that recalls are up 36 per cent. The statisticians explicitly blame SDS40 and a 2024 change to recall rules for the increase, saying that the 'combined effect expected from these changes is… more opportunities for offenders to be recalled'.
In theory prison should rehabilitate inmates, making them less likely to offend after release, and then the probation service should manage those people in the community, keeping them out of trouble. The reality is very different. We know that offenders who leave prison with a job, a home and a good social network are much less likely to reoffend. However, fewer than a third of prisoners have a job six months after release while over a quarter don't have a stable home three months after release.
Part of the problem is overcrowding. When prisons have no room, they are often more violent and drug-filled, meaning staff struggle to maintain order. Often the first thing to go is 'purposeful activity' – work, study and training – which might help prisoners avoid crime on release. This is why the Government announced a significant prison-building programme last year, but it has admitted this week it is 'unachievable'.
Meanwhile the probation service, desperately understaffed and struggling to retain experienced officers, is being asked to do more and more. If people spend just 40 per cent of their sentence in prison then that means they are supervised by probation for longer, meaning more work. Despite being a crucial part of the justice system and doing difficult, complex work, officers have seen their pay collapse both in real terms and in comparison to other public sector workers. In 2004 a probation officer's pay was equivalent to that of a police sergeant's whereas now it is equivalent to a police constable's. Staff often describe a management culture of fear and excessive demands. As a result of these pressures, Napo, the probation union, are balloting for strike action. The result will be known on August 22, and may herald another headache for Labour.
More risks are on their way. In June, in a desperate attempt to delay prisons running out of space again, the Government announced a change meaning that most offenders recalled to prison would be sent back for a shorter 'fixed-term' recall of 28 days, rather than a much longer 'standard recall'. The idea is that with recalled prisoners spending less time back in jail, the prison population should fall.
However, this may have the opposite effect. Probation officers may feel that recalling someone for just 28 days is less serious, and so may be more willing to use the power. Short recalls are also the worst of all worlds – 28 days is enough time for someone to lose any employment or home they may have, but provides no time for any real rehabilitation to take place. When the recall policy was announced in the spring, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson acknowledged that they had not conducted any modelling to estimate these risks. So this policy too is a gamble.
When Parliament returns the Sentencing Review will begin its journey into law. This, along with the Courts Review, will increase the use of non-prison punishments, placing yet more pressure on probation. If the gamble goes wrong we may well see soaring reoffending, yet more recalls, and an ever more lawless Britain.