The Case For Terminal Optimism In An Unpredictable World

Forbes

09-04-2025

Flight is for optimists.
getty
Running a company is a full-contact sport, and even the victor rarely leaves the arena unbruised.
No era has underscored that reality more than the mid-2020s, when the world seems intent on lobbing one curveball at us after another.
Whether it's emerging from a global pandemic, confronting supply chain chaos or grappling with the ramifications of a trade war, leaders are on the hook for finding ways to maintain profitability and morale while the ground constantly shifts beneath their feet.
It's been over a decade since Nassim Nicholas Taleb taught us the importance of embracing anti-fragility and acknowledging that Black Swans are much more common than we think.
But while many corporate leaders can talk the theory of anti-fragility, only a select cohort truly embody a posture that not only survives but actually thrives during crises.
One unifying trait that they share is strategic optimism: a decidedly positive outlook that helps them cut through the noise, isolate what matters, and steer their organizations forward even when others around them see no path forward.
Mind you, this form of optimism isn't about slapping a smiley face on dire circumstances and forging ahead.
Rather, optimism, when properly deployed, blends realism with a genuine refusal to get lost in negativity, much of which is unwarranted even in the worst of scenarios.
By framing adversity as solvable puzzles rather than insurmountable barriers, these leaders encourage their teams to stay creative, strategic, and adaptive where others have long since given up.
Psychologist Martin Seligman, known for his work on learned helplessness and positive psychology, has shown that people who frame events optimistically are more likely to persist in challenging tasks, bounce back from setbacks, and remain solution-focused.
The type of optimism experts such as Seligman argue for isn't mere cheerleading. His kind of optimism weaves in concepts of self-worth, resilience and a sense of confidence from the world of positive psychology which remains criminally underexplored in the mainstream.
In corporate circles, Lorraine Wiseman, PhD, a 7-time past CEO and executive coach, believes that a leadership style rooted in optimism can shift an entire company's emotional tone.
'Leaders who communicate an affirming vision, and truly believe it, give their teams permission to do the same,' Wiseman says.
'That doesn't mean ignoring risks or sugarcoating reality by the way. It just means that you approach problems with a mindset of, 'We can handle this if we keep our wits about us', and often that is more than enough to steer the ship to calmer waters,' she adds.
This mindset stands in stark contrast to learned helplessness, a phenomenon coined by Seligman in which individuals come to believe that no matter what they do, outcomes won't change.
At the heart of learned helplessness is the inability to adjust to a changing context because past negative experiences hold us back from seeing the world for what it truly is.
Where learned helplessness is the surrender of agency, terminal optimism is its reclamation: It declares that there's always something you can influence, some next step that can make a meaningful difference.
'Strategic optimism is about getting all the data, naming the risks, and then saying, 'We can navigate these.' If you see a real hazard, say, a shortage of skilled talent or tariffs that threaten your entire business model, you don't deny it. But you also don't let it paralyze you,' Wiseman explains.
The difference between blind optimism and strategic optimism is the underlying anchoring in reality of the latter.
There's no sense in banging one's head on a wall longer than necessary, and knowing when to give up or pivot is another trait that sets successful CEOs apart from the rest.
However, when a leader refuses to give up on an idea simply because the market has shifted or the timing is off knowing that a brighter day is statistically guaranteed to arrive, that is where real magic can start to happen.
Tariffs, trade wars, and the complexities of a global economy that is suddenly more brittle than it was just a few months ago can rattle even the most composed executives.
Here is where strategic optimism helps leaders remain steadfast, focusing on what they can control, instead of being consumed by that which they cannot.
Jack Griffin, Chairman and CEO of Atlas® World Group, exemplifies this approach.
In fact, Griffin calls himself a 'terminal optimist,' and when he says it, it's more than a catchphrase; it's how he and the company have found success.
Atlas® World Group, with a decentralized model of agent-owned fleets and over 500 trucks out on the road at any given time, stands at the volatile intersection of shipping, real estate, and corporate relocation.
Market shifts can be brutal, especially in times of economic turbulence, and the fate of the revenue curve is often in the hands of animal spirits guiding the markets.
Yet Jack insists that optimism is crucial for guiding a large workforce through volatile periods:
'We're so tied to real estate and relocation,' Griffin begins.
'When interest rates spike or construction slows, it can directly curb our revenue. But I remind my team: 'Markets are cyclical. Let's keep doing the fundamentals right, because the upturn is coming, and when it comes we'll be ready.''
He points to tariffs and supply chain constraints that have affected everything from container costs to raw materials as one reason why his terminal case of optimism helps keep the company geared towards success.
'We see these challenges as surmountable even when others don't. If we obsess over them, we stop innovating and retreat. If we focus on solutions, like forging new partnerships, adjusting routes, or even advocating for regulatory changes, we maintain a sense of forward momentum and are ready to grow the moment the market turns our way again,' Griffin continues.
Seeing a case of terminal optimism in action paints a striking contrast to leaders who adopt a defensive stance in uncertain times.
Griffin sees optimism not as denial but as a filter that separates what matters from what's merely alarming headlines.
He also believes that if you make optimism a corporate value, your workforce remains engaged even when the news cycle is dire: 'I tell my people: 'We don't control interest rates, we don't control foreign policy. But we do control our service quality, our brand reputation, and how we adapt. That's enough to make a big difference.''
For some companies, uncertainty goes much deeper than stock prices or international trade, all the way to the literal state of the planet.
Rahua Beauty is an example of a company that has built its entire business model around a sense of optimism that together we can actually make change happen.
Co-founded by Anna Ayers and Fabian Lliguin, two activists who see their business of natural hair and skin products as inextricably linked to the health of the Amazon rainforest, Rahua Beauty's origin story is one steeped in strategic optimism.
'We started Rahua Beauty because we saw firsthand the threats facing the Amazon, but also the power of Indigenous-led conservation,' says Ayers. 'Protecting the rainforest isn't just about environmentalism, it's about cultural preservation and supporting the people who have been the best stewards of this land for centuries. Our business exists to fuel that protection in a way that is both ethical and scalable.'
The company's business model depends on responsibly sourcing ingredients from the rainforest, funneling a portion of profits directly into conservation efforts. To date, Rahua Beauty has used these proceeds to protect over 1.6 million acres of Amazon rainforest, ensuring Indigenous Achuar communities in Ecuador retain control of their land in addition to which they fund community-driven initiatives.
Ayers' and co-founder Lliguin's ethos is a wonderful example of strategic optimism at work, optimism that acknowledges that deforestation, climate change, and social injustices are colossal problems and from that acknowledgment decides to act.
'This work isn't just about preventing destruction, it's about actively strengthening the communities at the heart of the rainforest,' says Lliguin. 'We've seen how direct investment in Indigenous leadership leads to lasting impact. When we fund education, training, and infrastructure, we're not just conserving land, we're ensuring that the next generation has the resources to protect it long into the future.'
Their efforts are clearly paying off.
By showing tangible progress in forest conservation, Rahua has built a community on customer loyalty among eco-conscious consumers who are as invested in impact as they are in product quality. The commitment Rahua's perennial optimism has engendered in it's clients isn't lost on the current CEO, Farah Azmi either.
'For 16 years, Rahua has been leading the way in true sustainability, not just as a concept, but as real impact,' says Azmi. 'This next chapter is a natural evolution of that work. From scaling our investment in Indigenous-led conservation to the education of the power of nature in haircare, we're not following industry trends - we're continuing to set them. The future of beauty isn't just about sustainability as a concept, but as a measurable, lasting impact, and we're excited to share our mission with an even broader audience going forward.
In a world sometimes described as 'on fire,' a brand that marries optimism with action stands out, and that truly is good for business.
'We can't just say we're optimistic about saving the rainforest. We have to prove we're making a real difference,' Ayers points out. 'Optimism is not us just ignoring data, it's us using it to fuel hope, and if we can also do good business while at it all the better.'
If tariffs and deforestation weren't enough, executives in 2025 also face an onslaught of technological threats, from cyberattacks to AI-driven fraud.
Many leaders understand the threats ahead, but fewer have the optimism and clarity to keep teams calm amid digital chaos.
Amidst the rapidly evolving threat-vector-landscape, Matthew DeChant, CEO of Security Counsel, advises businesses on how to build human-centric information security programs with strategic optimism embedded deep within the approach.
He sees an overabundance of threat vectors aimed at people as the 'new normal,' requiring a pragmatic yet hopeful mindset.
'It's easy to feel alarmed when you constantly read in the news about people, and by extension their organizations, being compromised,' DeChant says. 'But I remind my clients: you can either fixate on the panic, or invest that energy into a structured, resilient strategy that acknowledges the threats and our limitations, then make small improvements each day until you're in much better shape. The second path is far more productive,' he adds.
DeChant believes that optimism often stems from the simple fact of knowing you have a plan, even if the plan might change or prove grossly underprepared.
That's why he steers Security Counsel's clients to focus heavily on tabletop exercises, mentorship, cross-departmental communication, and agile methods that are geared towards preparing for the worst, while building for the best case scenario ahead.
'What we're really doing here is managing organizational behavior change regarding information security and privacy. When that's done well first, the technical solutions will fall into place in a straightforward way,' he explains.
'We help companies develop their internal capability to respond so that they can face uncertainty with calm, clarity and confidence. Once an organization sees they can address a mock cyber breach calmly and systematically, and at all levels…technical folks mitigating the attack, executives handling media inquiries and angry customers, and the board of directors able to offer helpful & timely advice…they stop dreading the real thing,' Matthew adds.
While the cybersecurity realm can breed a cynical 'it's only a matter of time' mentality, DeChant insists a balanced optimism is both practical and good for morale:
'An optimist does not assume that they won't be hacked. Instead, they know they can handle it when it happens.'
When discussing strategic optimism, he draws parallels to the Netherlands' dykes against floods, emphasizing proactive planning over panic.
'The difference between drowning and managing the crisis is preparation. If you build your 'dykes' early, there's no need to dread every new storm. Having the right level of vigilance while continuing to iterate your program and trusting your methods…that's what strategic optimism is about,' DeChant concludes.
So, what unites a psychologist researching learned helplessness, the CEO of a moving and transportation group, the co-founders of a rainforest-powered beauty brand, and a cybersecurity expert?
Based on the above, one answer is a collectively affirmative stance toward adversity.
Strategic optimism, done right, is neither Pollyannaish nor irresponsible. It's an active choice to see challenges as catalysts for adaptation rather than existential threats.
Ultimately, strategic optimism is both an attitude and a discipline. Leaders who adopt it acknowledge the storm clouds yet trust in their capacity to navigate around them or, if needed, wait them out.
Perhaps it's fitting to give the last word to Jack Griffin, the terminal optimist himself, who sums it up beautifully:
'Optimism doesn't mean ignoring the risk. It means I believe we can overcome it, and that belief often makes all the difference.'