Carbon Removal Is Struggling When It's Needed Most
Plus: Tariffs, YouTube sitcoms and literal killer apps.
By
Save
Welcome back to The Forecast from Bloomberg Weekend, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.
This week we're looking at the struggles of a last-ditch technology to fight climate change. Plus, what's next for US tariffs? Next weekend The Forecast will be off for some much-needed vacation, so you're on your own for Sunday predictions.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Bond Market's Rate-Cut Bets Hit Decisive Stretch With Powell
(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders' big bet that the Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates faces a key moment this week as Chair Jerome Powell gets a chance to weigh in on the economy. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider A Photographer's Pipe Dream: Capturing New York's Vast Water System Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety A London Apartment Tower With Echoes of Victorian Rail and Ancient Rome Princeton Plans New Budget Cuts as Pressure From Trump Builds Powell's speech on Friday at the central bank's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicks off a make-or-break stretch for the Treasury market, which sees a quarter-point rate cut next month as virtually a lock, with at least one more by year-end. He's used the occasion to make market-moving policy pronouncements in recent years, and this time the setting is potentially momentous. Traders are confident that a weakening job market has opened the door to a more dovish tone from the Fed chair, although surprisingly hot inflation data gave some economists pause. For now, investors expect that he'll refrain from upending their wager on a cut next month, while likely offering a reminder that officials' Sept. 17 policy decision will hinge on reports before that gathering to confirm that the labor market is cooling and that inflation is in check. 'He has the capacity to do something that's market-moving, but I'm not necessarily sure that he's going to,' said Kelsey Berro, executive director for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. Bond-market pricing is 'still consistent with kind of a sub-trend, soft-landing environment. I don't think that they see a big reason to push back against the market expectations.' Yields are lower across most maturities in August, led by the two-year, after weak July employment figures boosted bets on Fed easing. The result is that the yield curve has steepened this month, with the two-year rate settling around 3.75%, not far above its lowest levels of the past few months. Treasuries gained Monday, with benchmark 10-year yields slipping three basis points to 4.29%. Wyoming Surprise That backdrop is adding to the focus on the Jackson Hole confab. Three years ago, Powell pushed short-dated yields higher with a warning that fighting inflation would bring pain to households and businesses. At the symposium last year, he signaled that the Fed was ready to lower borrowing costs from a two-decade high. Two-year yields tumbled that day as the comments vindicated traders who'd been wagering on rate cuts. That September, the Fed delivered the first of a series of reductions, with a jumbo half-point move. Some traders are bracing for a repeat of that decision. A series of large option trades have targeted a half-point move next month, even after the jump in producer prices. Those bets would become profitable if the market priced about 40 basis points of easing into the September meeting. The intensifying clamor from President Donald Trump and others in the administration to reduce borrowing costs is helping fuel those bets. Powell has signaled for months that he needed time to see the impact of tariffs on inflation, and he's stuck to that stance in the face of Trump's efforts to strong-arm him into cutting. 'The Fed's under a tremendous amount of pressure,' said Scott DiMaggio, head of fixed income at AllianceBernstein. 'They're a little bit behind, but they've been waiting to see the impact of tariffs and what it's doing to the economy and to inflation.' The data has gotten to the point, according to DiMaggio, 'where you can say, 'Yes, they should resume that rate-reduction cycle.'' Decisive Data Following Jackson Hole, the market will focus on August jobs data to be released Sept. 5 and whether it seals the path for easing next month and potentially flags the possibility of even a shock half-point cut. To be sure, several investors and traders said a move of that size is unlikely following the hot producer inflation report. 'Our sense is that it will come down to the jobs report,' said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. 'If it's weak we'll price for 25 and don't believe Powell will fight it.' A faster pace of easing could well bolster the economy at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target, and with a potential fiscal tailwind ahead from Trump's tax-and-spending bill. Together with investor concerns about the administration's pressure on the central bank and the president's move to replace the leader of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that could push money managers to demand a higher risk premium on longer maturities. 'Front-loading aggressive cuts requires the Fed to set aside any remaining upside inflation risks' and take the view that unemployment is biased sharply higher, said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment. What to Watch Economic data: Aug. 18: New York Fed services business activity; NAHB housing market index Aug. 19: Housing starts; building permits Aug. 20: MBA mortgage applications: FOMC minutes Aug. 21: Initial jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed business outlook; S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs; leading index; existing home sales Fed calendar: Aug. 19: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Aug. 20: Governor Christopher Waller; July meeting minutes; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Aug. 21: Jackson Hole symposium begins Aug. 22: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Auction calendar: Aug. 18: 13-, 26-week bills Aug. 19: 6-week bills Aug. 20: 17-week bills; 20-year bonds Aug. 21: 4-, 8-week bills; 30-year TIPS (Updates with Monday prices.) What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates Living With 12 Strangers to Ease a Housing Crunch How Syrian Immigrants Are Boosting Germany's Economy Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Democrat J.D. Scholten drops out of Iowa's 2026 US Senate race and endorses Josh Turek
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Scholten is dropping out of Iowa's 2026 Senate race and endorsing Josh Turek. Scholten, a state representative from Sioux City, was one of the first Democrats to jump into the race in early June against Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst. He's the first Democrat to end his campaign, and his endorsement goes to his fellow state representative from Council Bluffs, who is the latest contender to enter the race. In a statement, Scholten said "we can't sit idly by while health care is ripped from millions of Americans," adding that he believes "there's no better Democrat in Iowa" than Turek to talk about health care. "From the very beginning, I thought a prairie populist athlete from western Iowa would be the best candidate to win in the general election," Scholten said. "I still do, but instead of me, I have complete confidence that Josh Turek can take this on. That's why I am suspending my campaign and endorsing him. As his friend, I'm proud to support him." Scholten, a minor league baseball pitcher, and Turek, a former Paralympian who won two gold medals in wheelchair basketball at the Paralympic Games, were both elected to the Iowa House in 2022 and have become friends. "I am honored to have the support of J.D.," Turek said in a statement. "Over the last several years, J.D. and I have fought alongside one another in the state Legislature to lower costs for Iowa's families, to make health care more affordable and accessible, to make housing more affordable and to make life a little bit easier and a little bit better for Iowa's families. We have an incredible opportunity to beat Joni Ernst in 2026, and I'm proud to join forces with J.D." Scholten's announcement is the first sign of consolidation in the Democratic primary, which has steadily grown over the past few months. State Sen. Zach Wahls, former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Director Nathan Sage and Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris are also seeking the Democratic nomination. Scholten, who previously ran twice for Congress in Iowa's 4th District, raised far less money than his competitors in the second quarter of the year, taking in just over $175,000. More: US Sen. Joni Ernst barely outraises Iowa Democratic challengers but has more cash on hand Sage raised $709,000 in the same timespan, while Wahls raised $656,000 despite launching his campaign less than three weeks before the fundraising deadline. Norris announced her campaign in August and has not had to report her fundraising. Turek entered the race Aug. 12 with a campaign launch video that features him crawling up stairs and dragging his wheelchair behind him to speak to a voter. He said he plans to focus his campaign on "kitchen table issues," including health care. He and Scholten are set to appear at a rally together at 6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 18, in Council Bluffs. In a news release, Wahls said he would tour an ironworking apprenticeship program on Aug. 18 and announce "a major endorsement." More: 'Bring it on,' US Sen. Joni Ernst says of crowded field of Democratic challengers The Democrats are seeking their party's nomination to take on Ernst, who is up for reelection in 2026. Ernst has not formally announced that she will seek a third term this year, but speaking at a Republican breakfast meeting on Aug. 13, she told her Democratic challengers to "bring it on." Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@ or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on X at @sgrubermiller. This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten ends Senate campaign, endorses Josh Turek
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Zelenskiy heads back to Washington (with friends)
LONDON, August 18 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe, European Financial Markets Editor After Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin's gathering in Alaska, it's now Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders' turn to meet the U.S. President. They're all gathering on Monday to map out a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, the response from financial markets to Friday's Alaska summit has been muted, to say the least. Oil prices, the euro and Ukraine's bonds are little changed. * The fear (from Europe) is that Trump could try to pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement favourable to Moscow. Zelenskiy has already all but rejected the outline of Putin's proposals, including for Ukraine to give up the rest of its eastern Donetsk region, of which it currently controls a quarter. Analysts reckon a ceasefire remains some way off, meaning geopolitical tensions remain a potential headwind to otherwise pretty buoyant world stock markets. * Markets will likely be on alert for any sign of deterioration in Trump's further talks with Putin. Especially those that might prompt the U.S. president to impose secondary tariffs targeting Russian energy trading, say with India. In an opinion piece published in Monday's Financial Times, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India's Russian crude buying was funding Moscow's war in Ukraine and had to stop. * Trump's meeting with Zelenskiy in Washington is one key gathering markets have their eye on this week. The other, the Federal Reserve's annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, takes place later this week. Fed chief Jerome Powell's speech there on Friday is expected to be his valedictory speech before his term ends next May. In Mike Dolan's column today, he looks at what could disturb the eerily calm credit markets. Today's Market Minute * Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders will meet Donald Trump in Washington on Monday to map out a peace deal amid fears the U.S. president could try to pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement favourable to Moscow. * India aims to slash taxes on small cars and insurance premiums as part of a sweeping reform of its goods and services tax (GST), a government source said on Monday, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's plan sparked a rally in stock markets. * Hong Kong's debt-laden developers and their creditors are set to face intensifying financial pressure as bond maturities are slated to jump by nearly 70% next year amid falling sales and valuations for the city's economically crucial property sector. * China's refiners lifted their processing rates in July, they are still likely adding to their stockpiles, which will allow them to trim imports should prices rise to levels they believe are not justified by market fundamentals. * News that Chinese battery giant CATL has suspended operations at its giant Jianxiawo mine has lit a fire under the lithium market, writes ROI columnist Andy Home. Chart of the day Although stock markets across the globe are at or near world highs, analysts say a ceasefire scenario is not yet priced in. So if there was any sign of a movement in that direction, risk assets - especially European shares - would be in a good position to rally further. Today's events to watch * Zelenskiy meets Trump in Washington * U.S. bills auction
