Hurricane Erin tracker: Tropical storm watch issued for N.C. as 'life-threatening' rip currents forecast up the East Coast — see the latest path
Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for parts of the Outer Banks in North Carolina as Hurricane Erin is expected to bring 'life-threatening' surf and rip currents along much of the East Coast this week, forecasters say.
Officials in Dare County, N.C., have already declared a state of emergency and ordered the evacuation of Hatteras Island, where tropical storm conditions and the possibility of life-threatening inundation of water from Erin are expected to have an impact on the barrier islands.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the rough surf conditions from the storm could affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and beaches up and down the East Coast during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should heed advice from lifeguards and local authorities, the hurricane center said.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last week, officially reaching hurricane status on Friday. It is the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
Where is Hurricane Erin now, and what is its path?
As of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday:
Erin was located 650 miles southwest of Bermuda and about 690 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.
It is moving northwest at 9 mph.
According to the NHC's latest advisory, Erin is expected to make a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday with an increase in forward speed followed by a northeastward motion by Thursday.
The computer models show that the storm is expected to pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and move between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
Watches and warnings
As of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday, these are the advisories in place, according to the NHC:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for:
Turks and Caicos Islands
Southeast Bahamas
Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for:
Central Bahamas
North of Duck, N.C. to Cape Charles Light, Va.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C.
What those watches and warnings mean
A storm surge watch means there's a possibility of life-threatening inundation of water moving inland from the coastline in the designated locations during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours across the Turks and Caicos islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Outer Banks starting late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of Duck, N.C. to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday.
The outer bands of Erin are expected to bring areas of heavy rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas through tonight. Rainfall totals could range from 1 to 3 inches, with up to 8 inches in isolated areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible on the Outer Banks Wednesday night into Thursday, with up to 4 inches possible..
Though Erin is not expected to make direct landfall, swells generated by the storm will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
'These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents,' the NHC said.
What are the chances Erin will intensify?
Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday and again on Monday before weakening. It is currently a Category 2 storm, just below a Category 3, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
"Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days," the NHC said.
But regardless of status, Erin remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Earlier this month, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 to 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
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