SuperCoach NRL trade talk and tips, live Q&A, round 14 teams
I'll start, most unusually for me, with an apology.
My Buy/Sell analysis will be truncated today due to a busy newsroom and the dreaded annual review.
Not a bad week for that I guess with there being a reasonably limited number of quality buy/sell options and I will try hard to be concise (not my strength) when assessing them.
Jayden Campbell – The most popular buy of the week and I can see why. Campbell had a great game at fullback in round 13 against the Storm with a try, two assists a bunch of offloads and some goals all of which added up to 93 points. His draw is good (covers next four games) but not great (he misses round 18). Campbell will revert to the halves if/when AJ Brimson is available (and the Titans are seeking an exemption to bring Brimson back this round) and while I prefer him at fullback his form at halfback has been solid. Campbell is behind only Nathan Cleary in terms of averages for halfback/five-eighths this year (minimum five games). His floor is good thanks to the goalkicking duties with a worst score of 46 he has a good ceiling (high score of 117) and four scores of 80+ from eight starts. BUY (NB a sneaky alternative buy is Nicho Hynes – he lacks the DPP flex of Campbell but he has scored 60+ in each of his past six matches and has an incredible ceiling – Hynes has scored 180+ against each of his next two opponents.
Keaon Koloamatangi – Was the most popular trade of the round last week and special KK delivered for his new owners with 70+ in base, eight tackle busts and a try. Added $66K to his price thanks to that big game and while his price is getting up there I still see okay value at $660K. The fly in the ointment is the knee injury to Mitch Barnett which means NSW coach Laurie Daley is in the hunt for a middle forward for origin II. Koloamatangi, an edge forward remade into a middle, is almost an identical like-for-like replacement for Barnett which has owners on edge and should worry those looking to buy him. If picked for the Blues, KK changed from being a bye round miracle (locked in big scores and covering rounds 15, 16 and 18) to a bye round nightmare who would play at best three of the next six games and quite possibly just two of those. Owners and potential suitors will be hoping Laurie looks to the likes of Stefano Utoikamanu or even Terrell May instead. BUY
Lehi Hopoate – No Turbo, no worries with Hopoate doing a superb job in his place at fullback against the Broncos. To be fair the Broncos were putrid, but you can only play what's in front of you and in Hopoate's favour the team in front of him for the next four rounds (Rd 14: Knights, Rd 15: Titans, Rd17: Tigers and Rd18: Souths) is not going to be very good. After that the draw gets much much tougher (Storm, Dogs, Roosters, Raiders) but that's not a reason not to buy. BUY
Nathan Lawson – the former rugby sevens star acquitted himself well on NRL debut against the Knights but I do not understand the rush to buy. Christian Tuipulotu was close to being available for the game and should be fine for this week which will see Lawson revert to NSW Cup. NO
Luke Metcalf – tonned up last week for his third triple-figure score of the season. that was good. Unfortunately, when he does not score 100+ Metcalf can be a bit quiet and fails to score 60+. Does not cover round 15 or 18 big bye rounds. NO
Toby Couchman – Looking for a mid-range forward who will provide solid base and decent bye round coverage? I've got the guy for you. Averaging 63.1PPG (67 if you remove his injury affected game in round 10) of which near enough 55 comes in pure base, Couchman is a bit of a steal at a snip over $550K (that injury game saw him drop around $70K). The Dragons cover both remaining major byes which is an added bonus. Not just a worker bee, Couchman has some power to his game (averaging better than 8PPG in tackle busts/offloads combined) and as a result he has scored 65+ in six of his 11 starts. Might not be a keeper to the end but definitely worth a shot to medium term hold at his price. BUY
Jack Williams – The Eels recruit is getting a fair bit of buzz in SC circles after scoring 96 in round 12 and 80 last week – each time with 59 points in pure base. Filling a hybrid role over the past fortnight where he moves between the middle and an edge there's a lot to like here. However, the Eels do not cover rounds 15 or 18 and I prefer Couchman's greater pedigree (he's basically been spending the entire season punching out a role like Williams has for a fortnight). NO
Corey Horsburgh – I had Big Red as a sell last week and nothing has changed (other than he lost $14K after scoring 51 against the Roosters). Origin selection push is growing, cash is diminishing. SELL
Zac Hosking – As I have mentioned before, while Hosking gets through solid work for a guy who is on an edge, he does not have a huge power game and so where he doesn't score a try you are stuck with low 50s (or worse). SELL
Cameron Munster – The trickiest buy/sell of the week in my opinion. Five-eighth is a touch spot this season and Munster has been the best 'set and forget' option at the position all year. That said, I am pretty tempted to turn him into Campbell or Hynes and here is why. The Storm do not play round 15 (Origin/bye), their Origin players are unlikely to back up from Origin II (have just three day turnaround between game in Perth and the round 16 clash against Souths) and then miss round 18 (Origin). Origin players then have a three-day turnaround from Origin III (in Sydney) to their game in Newcastle in round 19 (which I do expect Munster to play but he may be rested). Assuming he misses the game following Origin II then I expect Munster to miss three of the next six rounds – and he could miss four. There's also price to think about. Munster scored consecutive tonnes in rounds 10 and 11 and as a result his price has soared to $746K. With some high BEs in his future then you could sell now and likely get him back once Origin is done for around $80K less. RELUCTANT SELL
Robert Toia – The most popular sell of the week and I do understand why. The Roosters are on a bye this week and if Toia retains his Origin jumper then he might not play again in the next five weeks (Rd 14: BYE, Rd 15: Origin, Rd 16: unlikely to backup after Origin II in Perth, Rd 17: Bye, Rd 18: Origin). If dropped from the Maroons then he would provide tremendous coverage in the tricky 15/16 and 18 rounds. SELL
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