Bangladesh post-Yunus: Is the Army waiting in the wings?

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12 hours ago

Gen Uz-Zaman seems to have convinced his nation – and the international community – that he was not plotting to overthrow the civilian government, even if unelected. However, that may still happen if the Yunus dispensation discovers new reasons and justifications to put off the promised poll by the promised time read more
As far as elections are concerned, octogenarian Yunus has already declared that he would not contest. That makes things easier for others but not for those who hoisted him to power. Image: AP
On the face of it, Bangladesh's chief advisor, Mohamed Yunus, has successfully thwarted army chief Gen Waker-Uz-Zaman's bid to re-democratise the nation by declaring national elections between December and June next. Earlier, the 'good general' had set a December deadline for the self-styled civilian government to conduct elections and transfer power.
The fact is that the army chief has actually won the first round between the two. Rather, it was the open first round, as he only seemed wanting to make Yunus commit himself to a deadline for completing the election process and re-democratise public administration.
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In a way, it was his second victory. The unacknowledged first victory occurred when the Yunus government had to retain Gen Uz-Zaman as army chief after the latter had helped Awami League (AL) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to leave the country at the height of the nationwide anti-Hasina protests that caused more death and destruction on the streets than any other popular protests in the past.
The mayhem continued for a long time when pro-government student activists, who formed the core of new ministers, continued killing Awami League leaders and their families and burnt down their homes and businesses. Soon it degraded to anti-Hindu riots, and all of it quietened after a time when India protested loud and clear.
The new Dhaka leadership read the writing on the wall. But the riots and mayhem also showed the world the kind of fate that awaited Sheikh Hasina if sent back home to Dhaka from India, where she had taken shelter.
After all, global memory is not as short as often believed. The world pretty well remembered how Gen Zia-ul-Haq had overthrown Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was executed under court orders in a trumped-up case in Pakistan, also in this part of the world.
Now, when Team Yunus is repeatedly reminding India to send Hasina back to stand trial in multiple criminal cases, where the death sentence is the maximum penalty, the world understands and appreciates New Delhi's reluctance.
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Radicals, manageable
Gen Uz-Zaman seems to have convinced his nation – and more so the international community – that he was not plotting to overthrow the civilian government, even if unelected. That may still happen if the Yunus dispensation discovers new reasons and justifications to put off the promised poll by the promised time.
Yet, the general belief is that even if the army took over power in Bangladesh now or a little later, as long as the incumbent continues in that place, he would use the occasion only to hand over power to an elected dispensation as soon as possible. Since the political coup in August last year, there are enough indications that the instability outside has not rocked the boat with the armed forces. That is saying a lot.
Whether it is a civilian rule now or a military dispensation – for argument's sake – the nation's economy is so messy that no one wants to step in. Unlike the Pakistani parent, with which Yunus is getting uncomfortably chummy along with China, the armed forces in Bangladesh, while being powerful, do not have as many business interests.
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More importantly, a couple of decades of democracy – including the controversial later part under Hasina – have sort of imbibed the values of the people. Even the anti-Hasina protests were for more democracy, which is why it succeeded more than the plotters from outside the country and perpetrators from within might have imagined.
Thus, even interest groups in the armed forces desirous of perpetuating a fundamentalist religious agenda for the nation seem clear about having to live with democracy and hence Gen Uz-Zaman, too. Yet, there is no denying that there are those radical/extremist elements in the armed forces, too, but their numbers seem to be 'manageable'.
Strong second line
Team Yunus has already banned Awami League from entering the election fray. A free and fair election cannot happen unless the AL is restored the freedom to contest, even if Hasina is not given the option to return home as a free bird. There is no knowing if her party cadres would feel encouraged to contest as Independents, as has been the case under similar circumstances elsewhere.
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That should leave the Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, the democratic favourite. In her late seventies and ailing, Khaleda is sick, but the party, unlike the AL, has a strong second line capable of stepping in. That includes Begum's son, Tarique Rahman, considered radical and fundamentalist compared to his mother. Begum Zia used such ones as the Jamaat-i-Islami only as allies to win elections. She did not seem to suffer from their ideological orientation.
For their part, the radical students' groups that forced Hasina's exit have announced the formation of a political party, indicating the compulsion on them, too, for democratic mainstreaming. It is still questionable if their leaders would have the experience and expertise to run an elected government in difficult times, especially given their radicalism and prejudices – including against India.
Desecrating Tagore
Yunus' pushing the army's deadline for early elections by six months seems also to obtain time for the student groups to organise themselves into a political party. It is not just about the organisational structure alone. It is a mind-set that they need to change.
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It is about learning new things that most of them are unfamiliar with. Today, they are running a government under duress, as independent bureaucrats are too scared to give their considered view on issues.
The continued desecration, first of Hasina's father, 'Bangabandhu' Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's statue, and now targeting the hereditary properties of Rabindranath Tagore, displays the kind of warped mindset that is at work. Tagore is just not a Bengali poet who won the Nobel Prize in his time.
Instead, Tagore holds the unique status as the author of the national anthems of two nations at independence – of India first and Bangladesh later. The desecration of Tagore's ancestral properties, now in Bangladesh, sends out a different message in context. What is next in store remains to be seen.
Questions, no answers
As far as elections are concerned, octogenarian Yunus has already declared that he would not contest. That makes things easier for others but not for those who hoisted him to power, from both within the country and outside. Literally, he was 'para-dropped' in Dhaka after Hasina had left.
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If Yunus is going to keep his word, then who will succeed him, especially in an elected dispensation? Can there be an 'inclusive elections' without lifting the ban on Awami League, if not personally on Hasina? Indications were that the army too desired the same but has not come out in the open with its agenda for free and inclusive elections – in which they should show interest for sure.
Without Sheikh Hasina, the field is wide open for the BNP and Khaleda on the one side and multiple groups that want to form a political party on the other. This is not to forget the entrenched fundamentalist outfit in the Jamaat, which may not want to dissolve its historic identity and opportunity in a small coterie that does not know where to go next. This raises more questions than answers.
Traditional sphere
The clock began ticking for Bangladesh as a nation long ago, when the economy began losing its earlier gains, mainly due to the Covid lockdown – but never retrieved lost ground. The anti-Hasina protests were thus timed for channelising the anti-incumbency against her government, where democracy deficit was only one aspect.
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Hasina has since named names about those behind the plot against her. She has conceded earlier speculation that she was toppled because she refused to hand over St Martin Island to the US for military purposes.
From an Indian perspective, any US interest in St Martin Island or any such move aimed at possessing a strategic asset in and around India's 'traditional sphere of influence' is only one rung below the Chinese attitude and approach in such matters. Unlike China, which dumps good money after bad, the US continues to do it through arm-twisting, one way or the other.
In recent times, as witnessed in Sri Lanka two years prior to the 'Bangladesh revolution', US interests, as different from their Western friends and counterparts, have made 'mass-uprising' a cause for 'regime-change' when their camp-followers for the present especially are not popular enough to win elections and capture power through democratic means. Street anarchy seems to be their way; in the current edition, after earlier, poll-based attempts at 'regime change' did not produce the desired results.
In a small way, India is caught between the US and China, which are fighting their war of supremacy in India's waters, in India's region, without firing a single shot as yet. They are loath to do it in their common Pacific Ocean region, which they seem to want to leave undisturbed and unmolested as long as they can.
Nations like Bangladesh in our neighbourhood become chosen yet unwitting victims of the same. That is the larger picture for you – but then, when it comes to mending the smaller picture, where it all should still begin, it is in the hands of Bangladeshis, the political class, armed forces and the rest of them all included!
The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator. Email: [e-mail]. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.