Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts
JERUSALEM: Gaza's fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel's refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.
'It's actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire,' Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center told AFP.
While previous obstacles have tested the truce — including Hamas's threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire including insufficient aid entering Gaza — Milshtein emphasized that 'this time, it is even more complicated.'
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.
He condemned what he described as 'humiliating ceremonies' by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.
Palestinian militants had in the weeks prior paraded Israeli captives and later displayed black coffins containing deceased hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.
Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning that Israel was ready to 'resume intense fighting at any moment' in the Palestinian territory.
Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel's decision jeopardizes the 'entire agreement,' stopping short of promising a return to fighting.
Yet, despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire, according to Milshtein.
'Hamas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF (military) is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor,' he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza's border with Egypt.
For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said that Netanyahu was also stuck 'in the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages.'
'I think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners,' she said.
Zonszein noted that Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen 'coming out alive.'
Some analysts suggest that Israel's tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic ahead of upcoming talks for the second phase of truce.
'I don't think the ceasefire will collapse, it's not in Netanyahu's interest to have it collapse particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza,' said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa program.
'What we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them (Israel) trying to up the ante, or increase pressure on Hamas' ahead of the next phase, she said.
Phase two was 'always going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan,' she said.
Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting that the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.
But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase two talks.
'I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next,' said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.
'Trump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire,' he said, noting that the deal was on the table previously but 'Trump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms.'
Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two 'then it will happen.'
'It's a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage two plan but if the Arab states buck up... and take more of an interest given Trump's Gaza Riveria plans — there's a possibility we could do it.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Arab News
an hour ago
- Arab News
Palestinian nationalism must be saved
When the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE wanted to visit the Palestinian city of Ramallah last weekend, their goal was not a photo op in the city's Al-Manara Square. It was a clear show of support for Palestinian nationalism. As preparations for the June 17-20 Saudi-French high-level conference on the two-state solution in New York accelerate, Israel is intensifying its efforts to delegitimize Palestinian nationalism. Behind its campaign against Hamas lies a deeper strategy to deny Palestinians their inalienable right to self-determination. The Arab-Muslim ministerial visit to Ramallah was not simply about bolstering an unpopular Palestinian president. Its genuine purpose was to express solidarity with the Palestinian presidency. To be fair, President Mahmoud Abbas has undertaken modest reforms that deserve public support. While insufficient, these reforms should not be dismissed outright, especially not by an Israeli government that works relentlessly to undermine the very existence of the Palestinian Authority. Ironically, Israel transmitted its rejection of the visit by way of Hussein Al-Sheikh, the new Palestinian vice president, who has been a supporter of security cooperation with Israel. The Israelis are engaging in a one-way process in which they gain security cooperation while failing to reciprocate by respecting the very institution that is providing this cooperation. Unilateral Israeli attacks and permanent occupation of Palestinian refugee camps in Jenin, Tulkarem and Nablus are not the way to encourage two-way cooperation. Behind Israel's campaign against Hamas lies a deeper strategy to deny Palestinians their inalienable right to self-determination. Daoud Kuttab Furthermore, Israel continues to withhold Palestinian tax revenues it collects under the Israel-Palestine Memorandum of Understanding. While this agreement, often referred to as the Oslo Accords, allowed a 3 percent administrative handling fee, Israel is legally obligated to transfer the remainder of the monies collected to the Palestinian government. Instead, it is unjustifiably holding 7 billion shekels, roughly $2 billion. President Abbas and his newly appointed deputy, Al-Sheikh, have bent over backward to address Israeli objections, including the unpopular cessation of stipends to families of prisoners and martyrs. But even this painful concession has not resulted in the release of funds. As a consequence, Palestinian public servants have been forced to accept a fraction of their salaries just ahead of the Eid Al-Adha holiday. The multifaceted Israeli campaign — against refugee camps, the Palestinian government and any role for Ramallah in postwar Gaza — is aimed at crippling, if not eradicating, the Palestinian national entity centered in Ramallah. Arab and Muslim leaders, along with the global community, must persist in upholding Palestinian national rights. Daoud Kuttab By the end of 2024, the state of Palestine had been recognized by 146 countries, with several others, including Western nations, preparing to follow suit. The international community must do far more to uphold Palestinian nationalism and the right of Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem to live in freedom, free of occupation, settlements and colonial control. The plans for Arab and Muslim leaders, traveling by Jordanian military helicopter, to visit the Palestinian presidency in Ramallah were blocked by the Israeli occupying powers. This unprecedented move — targeting officials from countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — was a grave insult to those who defied public opinion at home to sign peace treaties and normalize ties with Israel, even while it occupied Palestinian and Arab lands. The response should not be limited to a video call with Abbas. It must include intensified political and economic support for Palestine. Countries capable of investing trillions globally must step up to support the Palestinian people and critical UN agencies like UNRWA. The Palestinian leadership, for its part, must exceed the bare minimum reforms that are being asked of it. Abbas must lead the effort to reunite Palestinians under the Palestine Liberation Organization umbrella and renew his legitimacy through an inclusive process involving both Palestinians in the Occupied Territories and the diaspora. While national elections are essential, immediate steps can be taken to heal divisions and rebuild the Palestinian national movement. This will require compromise, including a strategic shift by armed factions from military struggle to unified political and popular resistance. Arab and Muslim leaders, along with the global community, must persist in upholding Palestinian national rights. The denial of the foreign ministers' entry to Ramallah should not be forgotten but rather serve as a reminder that this conflict did not begin in October 2023. And that the fate of detainees on both sides is not the only barrier to a just and lasting peace. Palestinian statehood is the most logical and lasting solution to the decades-long conflict in the Middle East.
Leaders
4 hours ago
- Leaders
Israel to Block Entry of Madleen Aid Ship Heading to Gaza
Israeli military sources said that Israel would send a 'direct message' to Madleen, the sailing boat of Freedom Flotilla Coalition, not to enter Gaza, according to The Jerusalem Post. On Sunday, the aid ship set out from the Sicilian port of Catania in southern Italy on a mission to break 'Israel's siege' of the devastated territory, organizers said. The activists stated that they will try to reach the shores of Gaza and deliver some aids to Palestinians who are starving due to Israel's blockade of humanitarian aid. As a response, the Israeli military is reportedly deploying troops in the area and waiting for the ship's arrival. However, it did not reveal a specific plan of action. If those on board 'defy orders or provoke' the Israeli army, they may be arrested and transferred to Ashdod port for their deportation. Greta Thunberg on Board Greta Thunberg Operated by activist group Freedom Flotilla Coalition, the crew includes Climate campaigner Greta Thunberg and 11 other activists. 'We are doing this because, no matter what odds we are against, we have to keep trying,' Thunberg said. The mission also seeks to raise 'international awareness' over the ongoing humanitarian crisis. 'Because the moment we stop trying is when we lose our humanity. And no matter how dangerous this mission is, it's not even near as dangerous as the silence of the entire world in the face of the live-streamed genocide,' she added. Interestingly, 'Game of Thrones' actor Liam Cunningham and Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament who is of Palestinian descent joined the crew. Israel has previously banned Hassan from entering due to her obvious opposition to the Israeli war on Gaza. Greta Thunberg and other activists 'We are breaking the siege of Gaza by sea, but that's part of a broader strategy of mobilizations that will also attempt to break the siege by land,' said activist Thiago Avila. Madleen is set to reach Gaza in the next few days. Related Topics: Aid Ship Sails to Gaza with Greta Thunberg on Board Germany Urges Israel to Increase Humanitarian Aid to Gaza Ex Biden Official Accuses Israel of Committing 'War Crimes' in Gaza Short link : Post Views: 2
Asharq Al-Awsat
4 hours ago
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Three Iranians in UK Court Accused of Assisting Tehran Spy Service
Three Iranian men appeared in court in London on Friday accused of assisting Iran's foreign intelligence service and plotting violence against journalists working for a British-based broadcaster critical of Tehran. The three men - Mostafa Sepahvand, 39, Farhad Javadi Manesh, 44, and Shapoor Qalehali Khani Noori, 55, - have been charged with offences under Britain's National Security Act, brought in to give the authorities new powers to target threats from foreign states. They are accused of "engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service" between August 2024 and February this year, and police have said that it related to Iran. Sepahvand is also charged with carrying out surveillance in preparation to commit serious violence against a person, while Manesh and Noori were charged with surveillance with the intention that serious violent acts would be committed by others. The men appeared by videolink on Friday for a brief hearing at London's Old Bailey court during which their lawyers said all intended to plead not guilty to the charges. Prosecutors told a hearing last month that the allegations involved the targeting of journalists based in Britain connected with Iran International, a broadcaster critical of the Iranian government. They were remanded in custody until a formal plea hearing on September 26 and they are due to go on trial in October next year. The suspects were arrested last month on the same day counter-terrorism police detained five other men, including four Iranians, as part of a separate operation. Those men were later released without charge.
