A defining moment — act now to secure South Africa's energy future

Daily Maverick

6 hours ago

While the energy crisis may feel lessened by the suspension of scheduled load shedding this winter, South Africa's longer-term energy outlook still looks precarious and in the medium term consumers will bear the brunt of price hikes. This reality has led us to a Rubicon moment where the energy choices the country makes today – or fails to make – will shape our socioeconomic future in deeply fundamental ways.
As someone actively engaged in energy policy through the B20 Energy Task Force, the World Energy Council's South African board, and as co-chair of the Just Energy Transition and Industrialisation Steering Committee within the Energy Council of South Africa, I am concerned about the state of the energy transition and the continent's industrial progress – and believe the urgency to act has never been greater. To secure South Africa's long-term energy future and industrial base, several priority areas demand immediate attention.
Avoiding continued load shedding is critical
In South Africa the risk of load shedding remains very real. Decades of underinvestment and persistent challenges in maintaining ageing generation infrastructure have left the system vulnerable, with planned availability still well below the 70% target. As older coal power stations are decommissioned and renewables begin to scale, slow and fragmented procurement processes continue to delay much-needed capacity – meaning the underlying risks to supplying electricity reliably have not yet been resolved.
As we reduce reliance on legacy coal and oil-based generation, it is clear that renewables alone cannot ensure system stability due to their intermittency. The solution lies in technologies that support renewable integration and provide dispatchable power – most notably hydrogen-ready gas-to-power. While gas is a fossil fuel, it is a cleaner and scalable solution that complements wind, solar and green hydrogen, and will remain a vital component of South Africa's long-term energy mix. Shifting from coal to gas can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 60%, making gas-to-power one of the most effective available pathways for decarbonising baseload generation.
South Africa has vast renewable resources, but without urgent reform in both generation and infrastructure, we risk falling behind. Our 2030 national energy targets include 6GW of gas-to-power, 10,600MW of new capacity (including solar, wind and battery storage) and the decommissioning of 8GW of coal-fired power by 2029. At the current pace, we may fall short of our own commitments by at least two years. Such delays have real economic consequences: weakened investor confidence, stalled industrial growth and continued energy insecurity for 65 million South Africans.
The grid is our weakest link
The issue is not just generation capacity. It is the system that connects, transmits and stabilises that capacity across the country. South Africa's existing grid infrastructure cannot support large-scale renewable integration. With lead times of up to four years for some of the transmission equipment and another 12 to 18 months for installation, delays are compounding.
According to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, more than 10GW of renewable capacity awarded to independent power producers is effectively stranded due to the lack of grid access. Expanding and modernising the national grid must become an urgent investment priority – not only to meet decarbonisation goals, but to unlock new economic zones, enable decentralised power generation, and improve resilience in the face of climate-linked weather disruptions and cyber threats.
Encouragingly, the recent unbundling of Eskom's transmission division is a step in the right direction. To make real progress, this must be supported by decisive investment and implementation. South Africa's grid expansion efforts have faced significant delays and accelerating them now is critical to unlocking generation capacity and ensuring energy security.
Unlocking progress through procurement reform
Progress on gas procurement remains slow. The recent 2GW gas-to-power request for proposal is an encouraging signal, but we must move quickly to implementation. Gas turbines can take up to three years to manufacture and deliver – any delay now will leave South Africa unprepared for coal retirements and potentially exacerbate unplanned outages.
One of the most critical barriers to progress lies in our current procurement model. To meet our goals, procurement must be reformed to accelerate processes, increase scale and attract long-term investment, and industrialise.
We should consider innovative, strategic procurement approaches – ones that aggregate demand, enable faster approvals and give suppliers long-term certainty. This will reduce the cost per megawatt, unlock manufacturing investment, and support job creation across the energy value chain.
Other countries have shown what is possible. For example, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have successfully accelerated energy infrastructure development by prioritising speed, scale and sustainability in their procurement frameworks.
Our industrial growth depends on energy stability
This is not just a debate about energy – it is a national development imperative. Without reliable, affordable power we cannot grow our manufacturing base, expand mining operations or attract global investment. Energy is not a cost centre. It is a strategic enabler of national competitiveness, especially in turbulent times.
Gas infrastructure, grid expansion and renewable projects deliver a powerful combination: they improve security of supply, enable localisation and attract capital. But that only materialises if we create policy and procurement environments that give industry the confidence to invest.
As we speak, South African companies are already reducing their reliance on the national grid. Rooftop solar installations are surging. Independent power producer deals are accelerating. This is what we need if we want to support inclusive, economy-wide transformation, but we also need infrastructure at scale – and that can only be delivered through coordinated public-private partnerships, anchored by the government's strategic direction.
Africa cannot afford to wait
Across the continent, the ambitions of the energy transition are being slowed down by infrastructure gaps, regulatory complexity and undercapitalisation. As South Africa chairs the G20, we must demonstrate that emerging markets are ready for investment, localisation and technology partnerships.
At the upcoming Africa Energy Forum (AEF) tomorrow (Tuesday, 17 June), our message is clear: Africa's energy transformation must happen now – and it cannot happen in isolation. We need cross-border collaboration to accelerate technology deployment, de-risk financing and enable shared infrastructure.
The time for incrementalism is over. Our immediate priorities need to be the fast-tracking of procurement of hydrogen-ready gas-to-power, the acceleration of grid expansion and modernisation, the implementation of strategic, long-term procurement approaches and the prioritisation of localisation and skills development – all supported by a strong national long-term investment strategy.
This is not just power generation – it is about building an economy that works for industry, for communities and for future generations. The decisions we make in the next 12 to 18 months will determine whether South Africa transitions out of survival mode and into long-term energy security, sustainability and affordability. DM