Why Kim Caldwell's Lady Vols will make Final Four before Rick Barnes, Tennessee

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08-04-2025

Basketball national championships were decided Sunday and Monday, and Tennessee wasn't involved. That's not a shocking development.
The Tennessee men have never have made the Final Four, and the Lady Vols haven't made the Final Four since they won a national title in 2008.
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Just because you aren't cutting down nets hardly constitutes failure, though.
The Vols won 30 games and reached the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history. The Lady Vols reached the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament in coach Kim Caldwell's first season.
Both accomplishments are noteworthy. But the Lady Vols are more likely to make another Final Four before the Vols make their first Final Four − for multiple reasons.
First, there's history to consider. The Lady Vols have never failed to make the NCAA tournament. And even though they are far removed from their glory days, their glory days under coach Pat Summitt included eight national championships, more than any other program except UConn's.
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The history of the men's program is altogether different. You can't ignore the obvious: It's 0-for-forever in Final Fours.
Rick Barnes is a masterful program builder. He has proved that wherever he has coached. Thanks to him, UT basketball has never enjoyed so much sustained success. He has led them to seven consecutive NCAA tournaments and an average of 27 victories per season the past four years.
But as good as his teams have been, they haven't been Final Four good. They just haven't fared as well as in the postseason. You can't dismiss that track record when considering future postseasons.
I tried dismissing it this March, and Houston proved me wrong by dominating the Vols for most of their Elite Eight matchup.
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That track record isn't the only reason to believe the Lady Vols will reach the Final Four first. We have seen the Vols' and Barnes' upside. We haven't seen Caldwell's.
Maybe, the Sweet 16 is it. But I don't believe that.
You could argue that her team advanced only one rung higher on the NCAA tournament ladder than her predecessor did. And Kellie Harper was fired after the 2023-24 season.
But look below the tournament surface. Caldwell had to execute a complete overhaul to implement an unusual system that relies on a deep bench, 3-point shooting and a frantic pace.
She made that extreme transition by combining players who were recruited for a different system with well chosen transfers. She also signed the nation's second-ranked recruiting class in her first year. How many coaches could have pulled that off?
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Another question: If she could do that much in one season – and have a baby in the middle of it – how much more can she do in two years?
Something else to consider: It's much easier to make the women's Final Four than the men's.
ADAMS: Lady Vols basketball comes up short, but long-range view is promising under Kim Caldwell
Never mind that the women's game has developed more parity than when UConn and Tennessee so often decided championships between themselves. You still have far more Final Four candidates in the men's game.
I'm not ruling out the possibility that both Tennessee programs eventually could advance to the Final Four. Barnes has proved he can work the transfer portal effectively, and UT has shown it can close NIL deals. That's significant.
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But history favors the Lady Vols making the Final Four first. So does Caldwell's first season.
John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or [e-mail]. Follow him at: twitter.com/johnadamskns.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Why Kim Caldwell's Lady Vols will make Final Four before Rick Barnes