Vance's and Marco Rubio's Senate successors avoid GOP primary drama

NBC News

5 days ago

As JD Vance and Marco Rubio shot to the top of Donald Trump's list of possible running mates last year, a mix of joy and dread set in for Republicans in Ohio and Florida.
The joy was self-explanatory, springing from the clout that comes with having a favorite son in the White House. The dread was more complicated. Even though either case would see a GOP governor appoint a successor if one of the then-senators resigned to assume the vice presidency, such scenarios can invite messy primaries — in states where the Republican Party does not lack for rivalrous internal factions or ambitious candidates eager to exploit them.
In the end, both Vance and Rubio joined the new Trump administration — Vance as vice president, Rubio as secretary of state. And their appointed successors, Jon Husted in Ohio and Ashley Moody in Florida, are facing smoother than expected paths, at least for now.
Neither Husted nor Moody has a credible primary opponent at the moment. Husted scored an early Trump endorsement, while Moody has made efforts to get closer to the president's political team.
Both also are coming off strong fundraising quarters that could scare away any Republican tempted to challenge them. In the meantime, the political drama in both states has revolved more around how term-limited Govs. Mike DeWine in Ohio and Ron DeSantis in Florida are meddling in the GOP races to succeed them in 2026.
'Costly primaries are a waste of resources when we have the right leader in Jon, who has President Trump's endorsement and a proven record of fighting for Ohioans,' said Mehek Cooke, a conservative consultant in the state. 'I am proud to stand with him and fight for Ohio.'
Given recent trends in both states, the Republican nominees will enter their 2026 special elections as favorites in November, too. But Husted would face a much tougher race if former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was unseated last fall by businessman Bernie Moreno, is the Democratic candidate. Brown has acknowledged that he is considering a run for the Senate seat or a bid for governor.
In Florida, Democrats have struggled to find a top-tier candidate.
Husted's hustle
Husted's clear primary field is particularly significant in Ohio, where the two most recent Senate races gave rise to brutal Republican primaries, including the one Vance won in 2022. Trump's endorsement, which came at a much later stage in that primary, propelled his future running mate to victory that year. Trump's support also helped lift Moreno out of a crowded 2024 Senate primary.
Already this year, the president's backing helped secure unusually early endorsements for Husted from the Ohio Republican Party and the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.
Brenton Temple, who managed DeWine's 2022 re-election campaign, with Husted as his lieutenant governor, said Husted's long track record in Ohio has also helped his cause.
'Compared to the last two Senate races, there wasn't anybody like Jon Husted in those fields,' Temple said. 'Husted has been around for 25 years. He's got a lot of contacts, both in the donor community and the grassroots community … so he brings all of that to both the office and the campaign. And you combine all of that with the Trump endorsement and you clear the field.'
Husted, 57, has held one elected office or another since 2001, including serving as Ohio's state House speaker and secretary of state. On the one hand, that makes him precisely the type of establishment staple that Trump and other MAGA figures like Vance have vanquished in recent years.
On the other, it positioned him as one of the best-known politicians in the state. He had been preparing to run for governor next year. But when Trump-aligned Vivek Ramaswamy signaled plans to jump into that race, DeWine appointed Husted to the Senate to avoid a collision course between them.
'He has a two-decades-long conservative record in Ohio that voters know but that also the political establishment and class knows,' said Niraj Antani, a former state senator who is seeking the GOP nomination for state treasurer. Husted's positions on gun rights and school choice issues, Antani added, have earned him goodwill with the party's base.
'These things are hard to run against. His record is a solid record. I think he has the respect and likely admiration of virtually everyone in Ohio Republican politics,' Antani continued.
Husted, in an interview with NBC News, described himself as someone who's been able to bridge old Ohio GOP factions with the newer coalition led by Trump.
'We are a state that is conservative, but we also are a state that is working-class,' Husted said. 'I understand what the Republican Party is like in Cleveland versus what it's like in Appalachia versus what it's like in rural western Ohio. I mean, I just reflect the people that I have come to know over the course of the last 20-plus years that I've been doing this.'
Husted said he's forged a 'solid' relationship with Trump and noted that the president invited him to the White House when he signed Husted-sponsored legislation rolling back Biden-era energy efficiency standards. He also recalled how Trump called him in April, minutes before posting his 'Complete and Total Endorsement' of Husted on Truth Social.
Trump's endorsement, Husted said, 'has proven in a Republican primary in Ohio to be unbeatable.' The $2.6 million his campaign reported having in the bank entering July helps, too.
'I was planning on running for governor. I had 88 counties ready to activate. I had a whole team ready to activate,' Husted said. 'It's not like I just got appointed to the Senate out of nowhere. I'm tested. We're tough. We know what we're doing and we've got a great campaign.'
As for the prospect of a clash with Brown, 'I don't bother myself worrying or wasting time about who the Democrats might or might not nominate. We just run our campaign and we'll win.'
Moody's muscle
Since her appointment to the Senate in January, Moody has enhanced her ties to Trump while also building a significant war chest that should ward off any serious challengers. She ended June with $2.2 million cash on hand, putting her on strong financial footing in a state with 10 expensive media markets.
Meanwhile, a Moody-aligned super PAC has raised $7 million.
Moody, 50, was already a well-known part of the state's Republican establishment. As the Florida attorney general, she won two statewide races in dominating fashion, facing no primary challenge during her 2022 re-election bid.
'Any primary opponent to Sen. Moody would be running against her backing by a united Republican Party machine and quickly find their candidacy crushed,' said David Johnson, a veteran Florida GOP operative.
During her six years as attorney general, Moody was seen as a solid Republican, but generally stuck to state-level issues. But upon moving into federal politics, her ability to get close with the president — a necessary step toward clearing a primary field — had been an open question.
Moody's super PAC has since hired Trump world heavyweights Chris LaCivita, who helped run Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, and Florida-based Tony Fabrizio, who has long been one of the president's top pollsters.
There was a moment earlier this year where Rep. Cory Mills was considering entering the primary, but momentum has disappeared. Mills is now facing his own brewing scandal related to a lawsuit seeking his eviction over alleged failure to pay thousands of dollars in rent at a property in Washington, D.C.
As the 2026 midterms approach, there is not a single indicator pointing to Moody facing a credible primary challenger.
Josh Weil, who got national attention earlier this year when he ran closer than expected to Rep. Randy Fine in a congressional special election for an overwhelmingly Republican district, is running for the Democratic nomination.
But few believe that Florida Democrats have the resources or statewide infrastructure to win a Senate seat after Republicans have quickly turned the state deep red over the past few election cycles. Trump carried Florida by 13 percentage points in 2024.
Johnson said that in order to compete in a contested Florida Senate general election, candidates need to be able to spend upward of $50 or $60 million on TV alone, 'not just raising the amount in gross dollars via small-dollar grifting like Weil did in his special election.'
'Just like Kamala, they won't play here,' Johnson said.