What we know about Jayden Reed: Positive signs for Packers' leading WR despite drops

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2 days ago

What we know about Jayden Reed: Positive signs for Packers' leading WR despite drops
Jayden Reed has led the Green Bay Packers in receiving yards in each of his first two seasons, and while he did not take the emphatic step forward many expected in 2024, the advanced metrics reveal a lot to be hopeful about moving forward.
Based on his statistical profile, here is what we know about the type of receiver Reed has been through two years, and what he can potentially become in the future:
Strengths
Reed has comfortably been an above average receiver from the moment he entered the league and an efficient target to help reliably move the Packers offense down the field.
He ranks in the 78th percentile in yards per route run (Y/RR) and the 64th for yards per reception (Y/REC) among qualified NFL receivers since 2023.
Operating mostly inside, Reed has been one of the better slot receivers in the league in his first two seasons, ranking in the 72nd percentile for Y/RR and the 89th for Y/REC when lined up there.
Reed has also performed very well against zone coverage, landing in the 90th percentile for Y/RR and the 68th for Y/REC.
The Packers often look to get the ball in Reed's hands quickly, and his ability to get yards after the catch is another string to his bow. Reed ranks in the 83rd percentile for YAC.
He has also shown a nose for the end zone, ranking in the 82nd percentile for touchdowns per target. Reed has 17 total touchdowns in his first two seasons including three rushing scores.
An underrated and rarely discussed strength of Reed's game is his ability to do damage deep downfield. His numbers are impressive across the board compared to his NFL counterparts in the deep part of the field, where he ranks in the 87th percentile in Y/RR and the 76th for Y/REC.
Reed is underutilized as a deep threat despite having the speed for it. As a slot receiver it is hard to live in the deep part of the field, as the role requires a lot of shorter routes, shown by Reed's average depth of target (ADOT) ranking in just the 22nd percentile.
With Christian Watson set to miss a significant portion of the season though, could Reed's ability to stretch the field be used more often in 2025?
Weaknesses
This is no secret, but when separating Reed's game into different facets, the worst part of it is clearly his ability against man coverage, where he has really failed to make much of an impact so far.
He ranks in the 49th percentile in Y/REC, which is fine, but only the 33rd percentile for Y/RR. Both of those numbers were above average in 2023, but an abysmal 2024 campaign torpedoed the overall ranking.
While Reed has the route running ability to win against man, he is a smaller receiver with short arms, so he can struggle to box out or bring in passes when corners are close by, as is more often the case when facing man coverage.
Drops plagued him in 2024 and were a real problem. Reed ranks in the 38th percentile for drop percentage since entering the league, and most of that damage was done in his second season, when he had ten drops.
The drops showed up much more often against man coverage. He ranks in the 10th percentile for drop rate versus man, compared to the 60th percentile against zone.
Considering how the Packers have used him, Reed has not been as effective on receptions behind the line of scrimmage, in the 0-10 yard area, or on screens as they might hope. His numbers were average at best in terms of Y/REC and Y/RR in all of those facets.
This perhaps helps to explain Green Bay selecting Savion Williams, who was electric with the ball in his hands in college, in this year's draft.
The Packers could stand to squeeze more juice out of the quick-hitting element of their passing game, and Reed's talents may be better used elsewhere, as more of a true receiver.
Part of what made Reed's numbers underwhelming in that regard was the fact he had more drops on targets behind the line of scrimmage (four) than in any other area of the field last year.
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The perception of Reed's 2024 season has been colored by his issues with drops, but he actually improved many aspects of his game in a significant way last year, which is a very positive sign for 2025 and beyond.
Between 2023 and 2024, his Y/RR and Y/REC numbers went from the 41st and 72nd percentile to the 86th and 83rd respectively, which implies he was a more efficient overall receiver in his second season.
Several of his already established strengths got stronger, such as his ability after the catch. Reed's YAC per reception went from the 76th percentile to the 90th, and he was a much better tackle breaker, improving from the 40th percentile to the 66th.
He was better in the slot and against zone in 2024 than he was as a rookie in terms of Y/RR and Y/REC, which are his calling cards, and he was an even better deep threat on a play to play basis than he was in 2023.
Removing the drops, which are hard to ignore, he was actually a more efficient target behind the line of scrimmage, in the short area and on screens in his sophomore NFL season in terms of Y/RR and Y/REC.
His contested catch win rate skyrocketed from the 13th percentile to the 93rd between Year 1 and 2. This can deviate wildly year to year, but his numbers were incredibly impressive in 2024, especially for a smaller receiver. Reed caught all five of his deep contested catches.
Something which will have gone unnoticed by many is the improvements he made as a run blocker, a vital part of what Matt LaFleur asks his receivers to do. He jumped from the 22nd percentile to the 78th among receivers in terms of PFF's run block grades.
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As discussed, the drops were a serious problem for Reed in 2024, and it is a real shame they completely overshadowed the legitimate progress he made in other areas.
He fell off a cliff from 2023, when he ranked in the 72nd percentile in drop percentage, to just the 3rd percentile last year.
Fortunately, drops are volatile, and can come and go. Reed's strong 2023 season catching the football indicates it is not a chronic issue, and he could very well rebound in 2025.
The improvements he did make in terms of his work behind the line of scrimmage and on screens were outweighed by the drops on what should be routine catches, reducing his overall effectiveness on these targets compared to 2023.
Reed was also worse versus man coverage in 2024 than he was as a rookie, with his Y/RR and Y/REC plummeting from the 57th and 59th percentile, both solid numbers, to the 9th and 39th percentile respectively.
Overall, Reed's ceiling could be limited if he cannot find a way to be more effective against man coverage, but despite that, he has already settled in as a quality NFL receiver, essentially doing so right out of the gate as a rookie.
He is a well above average slot receiver and has been deadly against zone coverage. He showed real signs of improvement in various key statistical areas in his second season, which has gone under the radar due to his battle with dropping the football.
If he can put that issue behind him and allow his progress to shine through in an even bigger way in 2025, he could be a force to be reckoned with from the slot in Year 3.