Egypt plans to issue $2bln sukuk in 2025, finance minister to Reuters
KUWAIT: Egypt, which is short of foreign currency, plans to issue $2 billion in Islamic bonds or sukuks in 2025 via multiple offerings and has appointed banks for the issuance, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told Reuters on Wednesday.
He added that Egypt was also very open to debt-for-investment swaps, similar to the Ras El Hekma development deal with the United Arab Emirates. (Reporting by Ahmed Hagagy, Writing by Nayera Abdallah, Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)
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Zawya
27 minutes ago
- Zawya
What's up with the wacky CBOT corn spreads?
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.) NAPERVILLE, Illinois - U.S. corn supply estimates for the waning 2024-25 marketing year have been dwindling in recent months, though a notable rebound is expected for 2025-26. But the futures market might not be reflecting these trends, leading many to wonder if old-crop stockpiles are actually larger than the government has predicted. Normally, that supply trajectory might put Chicago futures in an inverse, where old-crop corn is pricier than new-crop. But so far this month, CBOT July corn has traded at an average of around 3 cents per bushel cheaper than December corn , reflecting a small carry in the market. Analysts think the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday will trim its forecast for 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.392 billion bushels, rendering stocks down 21% on the year. In past Junes, such a decline in corn stocks has been associated with July-December inverses exceeding 50 cents. The closest comparison in terms of stock declines would be 2018, when July-December corn traded at a 21-cent carry during the first two weeks of June. At that time, U.S. 2017-18 ending stocks were pegged to ease 8% on the year, but the actual estimate was more than ample at 2.1 billion bushels. This demonstrates that contracting year-on-year supplies can be associated with market carry in June. Additionally, there are examples (2008, 2018) where this carry existed despite a reduction in stock estimates over the previous several months. Still, the current setup may suggest that either July futures are too cheap versus December, old-crop stocks are being understated, or some combination of both. PARSING PROBABILITIES Given the present market structure, what might this mean for old-crop corn stocks – and trade expectations – moving forward? If old-crop stocks are too low, it may not come to light on Thursday. There is no relationship between the old-new crop futures spread and the trend in USDA's old-crop ending stock estimates from May to June. Fast-forward to June 30, when USDA publishes its June 1 stock survey, and the chance for a bearish bomb increases. Since 2008, whenever July-December corn traded near flat or in a carry during early June, analysts underestimated June 1 corn stocks about 73% of the time. On the flip side, analysts underestimated June 1 corn stocks in just one out of six years when old-new crop corn featured a strong inverse relationship. Since 2008, there is also a 73% hit rate for final corn ending stocks to be the same or higher than was estimated in June whenever July-December corn traded near flat or in a carry during early June. This same early June spread, however, does not suggest that final ending stocks will be bearish as the trade has gone on to both underestimate and overestimate September 1 corn stocks. WAKE ME UP WHEN SEPTEMBER ENDS The outcome is still wide open for the end of September, when USDA will publish final 2024-25 corn ending stocks. But right now, CBOT corn for expiration in mid-September is the cheapest of the bunch. July-September corn is trading at an inverse averaging 12 cents per bushel so far this month, which is unusual given the slight carry in July-December. The historical relationship between these spreads suggests that one or both are a bit out of sync. With multiple anomalies in the futures market setup having been identified, this might simply mean that 2025 is an outlier year. And if that's the case, historical odds may be increasingly less reliable from here. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. (Writing by Karen Braun; Editing by Matthew Lewis)
Khaleej Times
43 minutes ago
- Khaleej Times
'Dangerous place': Trump pulls US personnel out of Middle East citing security risks
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said US personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because "it could be a dangerous place," adding that the United States would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Reuters reported earlier on Wednesday that the US is preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to leave locations around the Middle East due to heightened security risks in the region, according to U.S. and Iraqi sources. The four US and two Iraqi sources did not say what security risks had prompted the decision and reports of the potential evacuation pushed up oil prices by more than 4%. A US official said the State Department had authorized voluntary departures from Bahrain and Kuwait. Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels. The decision by the US to evacuate some personnel comes at a volatile moment in the region. Trump's efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran appear to be deadlocked and US intelligence indicates that Israel has been making preparations for a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. "They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place, and we'll see what happens," Trump told reporters. "We've given notice to move out." Asked whether anything can be done to lower the temperature in the region, Trump said, "They can't have a nuclear weapon. Very simple, they can't have a nuclear weapon." Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran if stuttering talks over its nuclear programme fail and in an interview released earlier on Wednesday said he was growing less confident that Tehran would agree to stop enriching uranium, a key American demand. Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh also said on Wednesday that if Iran was subjected to strikes it would retaliate by hitting U.S. bases in the region. The U.S. embassy in Kuwait said in a statement on Wednesday that it "has not changed its staffing posture and remains fully operational." Military presence The United States has a military presence across the major oil-producing region, with bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the Middle East, a U.S. official said. Another U.S. official said that was mostly relevant to family members located in Bahrain -- where the bulk of them are based. "The State Department is set to have an ordered departure for (the) U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The intent is to do it through commercial means, but the U.S. military is standing by if help is requested," a third U.S. official said. Iraq's state news agency cited a government source as saying Baghdad had not recorded any security indication that called for an evacuation. Another U.S. official said that there was no change in operations at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East and that no evacuation order had been issued for employees or families linked to the U.S. embassy in Qatar, which was operating as usual. Tensions Oil futures climbed $3 on reports of the Baghdad evacuation with Brent crude futures at $69.18 a barrel. Earlier on Wednesday Britain's maritime agency warned that increased tensions in the Middle East may lead to an escalation in military activity that could impact shipping in critical waterways. It advised vessels to use caution while travelling through the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Straits of Hormuz, which all border Iran. Britain's Foreign Office said it was monitoring the situation and will keep its embassy in Iraq under constant review following the U.S. moves. Iraq, a rare regional partner of both the United States and its arch regional foe Iran, hosts 2,500 U.S. troops although Tehran-backed armed factions are linked to its security forces. Tensions inside Iraq have heightened since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, with Iran-aligned armed groups in the country repeatedly attacking U.S. troops, though attacks have subsided since last year. Israel and Iran also twice exchanged fire last year - the first ever such direct attacks between the region's most entrenched enemies - with missiles and war drones hurtling across Iraqi airspace. Top US regional ally Israel has also struck Iran-linked targets across the region, including Iraqi armed groups operating both inside Iraq and in neighbouring Syria. In recent months the United States had deployed more military assets in the Middle East -- including B-2 bombers, which have since been replaced, and extending the deployment of a second aircraft carrier, which has since departed. The next round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States is due in the coming days with Iran expected to hand over a counter proposal after rejecting an offer by Washington. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that a military threat has always been part of the United States' negotiation tactics with Iran. 'Any military action against Iran, whether by the U.S. or Israel, will have serious consequences,' the official warned. Iran's U.N. mission on Wednesday posted on X: "Threats of 'overwhelming force' won't change facts: Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon and U.S. militarism only fuels instability." The statement appeared to be a response to an earlier comment by U.S. Army General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, that he had provided the president with "a wide range of options" to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Kurilla postponed testimony he was due to deliver before U.S. lawmakers on Thursday because of tensions in the Middle East, two other U.S. officials said.
Dubai Eye
12 hours ago
- Dubai Eye
World Bank cuts global growth forecast as trade tensions heighten uncertainty
The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3 per cent, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the global lender lowered its forecasts for nearly 70 per cent of all economies - including the US, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions - from the levels it projected six months ago before US President Donald Trump took office. Trump has upended global trade with a series of on-again, off-again tariff hikes that have increased the effective US tariff rate from below 3 per cent to the mid-teens - its highest level in almost a century - and triggered retaliation by China and other countries. The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump's erratic trade policies, although US officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts. It stopped short of forecasting a recession, but said global economic growth this year would be the weakest outside of a recession since 2008. By 2027, global gross domestic product growth was expected to average just 2.5 per cent, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s. The report forecast that global trade would grow by 1.8 per cent in 2025, down from 3.4 per cent in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9 per cent level in the 2000s. The forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of late May, including a 10 per cent US tariff on imports from most countries. It excludes increases that were announced by Trump in April and then postponed until July 9 to allow for negotiations. The World Bank said global inflation was expected to reach 2.9 per cent in 2025, remaining above pre-COVID-19 levels, given tariff increases and tight labor markets. "Risks to the global outlook remain tilted decidedly to the downside," it wrote. The lender said its models showed that a further increase of 10 percentage points in average US tariffs, on top of the 10 per cent rate already implemented, and proportional retaliation by other countries, could shave another half of a percentage point off the outlook for 2025. Such an escalation in trade barriers would result "in global trade seizing up in the second half of this year... accompanied by a widespread collapse in confidence, surging uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets," the report said. Nonetheless, it said the risk of a global recession was less than 10 per cent. Top officials from the US and China are meeting in London this week to try to defuse a trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earth minerals, threatening a global supply chain shock and slower growth. "Uncertainty remains a powerful drag, like fog on a runway. It slows investment and clouds the outlook," World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose told Reuters in an interview. But Kose said there were signs of increased dialogue on trade that could help dispel uncertainty, and supply chains were adapting to a new global trade map, not collapsing. Global trade growth could modestly rebound in 2026 to 2.4 per cent, and developments in artificial intelligence could also boost growth, he said. "We think that eventually the uncertainty will decline," Kose said. "Once the type of fog we have lifts, the trade engine may start running again, but at a slower pace." Kose said while things could get worse, trade was continuing and China, India and others were still delivering robust growth. Many countries were also discussing new trade partnerships that could pay dividends later, he said. The World Bank said the global outlook had "deteriorated substantially" since January, mainly due to advanced economies, which are now seen growing by just 1.2 per cent, down half a percentage point, after expanding by 1.7 per cent per cent in 2024. The US forecast was slashed by nine-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 1.4 per cent, and the 2026 outlook was lowered by four-tenths of a percentage point to 1.6 per cent. Rising trade barriers, "record-high uncertainty" and a spike in financial market volatility were expected to weigh on private consumption, trade and investment, it said. The White House pushed back against the forecast, citing recent economic data that it said pointed to a stronger economy. "The World Bank's prognostications are untethered to the data: investment in real business equipment surged by nearly 25 per cent in Q1 of 2025; real disposable personal income grew by a robust 0.7 per cent month-over-month in April; and Americans have now seen three consecutive expectation-beating jobs and inflation reports," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. He added that a sweeping budget package currently making its way through Congress would provide tax relief and "further turbo-charge America's economic resurgence under President Trump." The World Bank cut growth estimates in the euro zone by three-tenths of a percentage point to 0.7 per cent and in Japan by half a percentage point to 0.7 per cent. It said emerging markets and developing economies were expected to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2025 versus 4.1 per cent in the forecast in January. Poor countries would suffer the most, the report said. By 2027, developing economies' per capita GDP would be 6 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, and it could take these countries - minus China - two decades to recoup the economic losses of the 2020s. Mexico, heavily dependent on trade with the US, saw its growth forecast cut by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2 per cent in 2025. The World Bank left its forecast for China unchanged at 4.5 per cent from January, saying Beijing still had monetary and fiscal space to support its economy and stimulate growth.
