Take Five: Trump's first 100 days
April 25 (Reuters) - Donald Trump is nearing the 100-day mark of his second presidency and investors are no closer to figuring out how to trade his policies, nor do central bankers have much clarity on how their economies may be affected.
Additionally, earnings season is ramping up, there's crucial U.S. jobs data, a Canadian election and a litmus test for the health of the euro zone.
Here's a look at the week ahead from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/ 100 DAYS
Trump marks 100 days in office on April 30, facing a multitude of challenges, many of his own making.
Trump's on-off tariffs have sent shockwaves through financial markets, which still have no real way of pricing in the possible economic hits. His public meltdown with Volodymyr Zelenskiy shocked the Ukrainian President's allies in Europe, who, excluded from ceasefire talks with Russia, are now rearming at the fastest pace in decades.
A heavy-handed approach towards migrants and tourists has slashed visitor arrivals to the United States. And Trump's jibes about making Canada the 51st U.S. state have sparked an anti-U.S. backlash there. Old alliances lie in tatters, market sentiment is fragile and uncertainty rife. Investors are keen for a bit more visibility in Trump's next 100 days.
2/ EARNINGS, THEN JOBS
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms deliver quarterly results in the coming week, which will also feature some big economic indicators.
After two years of massive gains, these stocks and the rest of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap companies - Nvidia, Alphabet and Tesla - are off to a rough start in 2025, weighing on equity markets.
Over one-fifth of the S&P 500 have reported results and overall earnings are expected to have grown 8.4% in the first quarter. But the focus is firmly on corporate outlooks, given the uncertain trade backdrop.
April employment data on May 2 and inflation figures a day earlier may offer some steer on how the economy is doing. Forecasts are for a 130,000 rise in the number of workers on non-farm payrolls after March's 228,000 increase.
3/ RELATIVELY RELAXED RHETORIC
Tensions between the U.S. and China seem to be thawing somewhat with Beijing considering some exemptions for its 125% tariffs on U.S. imports.
A list of 131 categories of products eligible for exemptions was circulating widely on social media and among businesses and trade groups on Friday.
This comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday indicated the U.S. was willing to de-escalate.
It also doesn't seem as if Bessent will be aggressively pressuring Tokyo for a stronger yen, in what can only be welcome news to the Bank of Japan, which meets on May 1.
Bessent said he has no numbers in mind for the exchange rate as he prepared to meet his Japanese counterpart Katsunobu Kato for talks in Washington. Only a week earlier, Trump accused Japan of weakening the yen to help exporters.
4/ O CANADA
Canadians head to the polls on Monday and Prime Minister Mark Carney wants a strong mandate to tackle Trump.
Carney believes his southern neighbour poses a huge threat because of his tariffs and talk of annexation, so the answer is to reduce reliance on the United States and restructure the economy.
Voters appear to agree. Carney's Liberal party has rebounded to a 5-point lead over the opposition Conservatives, having trailed by 24 points in January.
Markets anticipate this outcome. Canada's dollar, up from February's 22-year low, shouldn't be too impacted.
That said, the road ahead is bumpy. The IMF has slashed Canadian growth forecasts and Liberal plans to ramp up spending to boost growth suggest a higher-than-anticipated budget deficit.
The stakes for Carney, who earned a reputation as the "unreliable boyfriend" during his tenor as Bank of England chief, are high.
5/ HAVENS OF CHOICE
With the euro and euro zone bonds now functioning as havens for investors fleeing U.S. tariff turmoil, their reaction to key data next week will show if these assets have completely decoupled from the bloc's economy.
Flash euro zone inflation data on May 2 may show price growth has continued to ease towards the European Central Bank's 2% target and strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
HCOB's final purchasing managers index for European manufacturers, due the same day, could also confirm widespread fears that confidence is draining out of the regional supply chain.
However, few analysts expect weak data to shake the euro. Bank of America reckons Germany's fiscal splurge will keep it strong, while Barclays expects the common currency to stick around $1.15 unless White House policy shocks abate. - Reuters
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