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Bloomberg
3 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
BofA: Record Number of Investors Find Stocks Overvalued
00:00 Bank of America with its August Global Fund manager survey showing investors are the most bullish since February, with a record 91% calling U.S. stocks overvalued. Joining us now to discuss this and a scholar of Bank of America analysts. Welcome to the program. Let's just talk about that 91%. So a lot of people seem to think many. In fact, the overwhelming majority believe the US stocks are overvalued. How many are. Sure. How many are underway at the moment? Hey, John, look, I mean, clearly, that's that's a very important question to to to our investors and clients, because the valuation and the perception of the global stock market valuation was really a highlight in this month's Global Fund Manager survey, which was not really a decisive survey, not like the survey that came out in April, which was a clear moment to buy of the survey from about December 2024, which was a great moment to to to sell the market. But this month, the highlight was really the perception that global equity markets are overvalued. The highest share of investors saying they think the global equity market is overvalued. Since 1998, when we first starting started asking this this question. The share popped. Even the highs observed during the Internet bubble in 1999 2000, or the everything bubble in 2021. And of course, the perception that global equity markets are very rich, overvalued is driven by the US equity market with here as well. 91% of famous participant saying that they think the US equity market is is overvalued. Definitely valuations are very important for long term equity investors. In fact, that is the one factor that matters when you invest in terms of on on on stocks over the course of a of a ten year period. However, this has not been an element that that caused major concerns because investors continue to rotate towards the US equity market that were very underweight in April. This underweight is being cut progressively and despite the very high perception of of overvaluation, other firms positioning in terms of US equities remain net underweight, which is really a silver lining for US stocks. And so any is the way you see things is that this negative reservoir of pessimism that we can keep feeding on in the months to come, can we continue to see that grind higher? I think, you know, this negative reservoir of pessimism is really what emboldens the bulls right now, because when you look at the results from the infamous survey this month is that the bulls will really focus on the macro pessimism that in fact, in Greece versus where it was in in July, macro sentiment worsened a little bit. But also the bulls refocus focus on the fact that global equity exposure stands below the historical average net. 14% of our famous investors said they were overweight. The global equity market, the historical historical average since 2000 is roughly 25%. So is this based on these two metrics, the bulls will say there is further room to go in terms of positioning. However, there is also some substance to embolden the bear narrative and in particular, the fact that the average farmer's cash level remains at a low 3.9%, which historically has been a strong signal to say that global risk assets are toppy as now is a good time to retreat or hedge your your position.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Analysis-Companies plan stablecoins under new law, but experts say hurdles remain
By Hannah Lang (Reuters) -Financial companies from Bank of America to Fiserv are preparing to launch their own dollar-backed crypto tokens now that a new U.S. law has established the first-ever rules for stablecoins, but experts warn the path forward could be anything but simple. U.S. President Donald Trump on July 18 signed the GENIUS Act into law, setting federal rules and guidelines for cryptocurrency tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar known as stablecoins. This U.S. law, the first designed to facilitate crypto usage, could pave the way for the digital assets to become an everyday way to make payments and move money, experts said. The use of stablecoins, designed to maintain a constant value, usually a 1:1 U.S. dollar peg, has exploded in recent years, notably among crypto traders moving funds to and from other tokens, such as bitcoin and ether. Now, a slate of companies are entertaining their own stablecoin strategies to capitalize on the promise of instant payments and settlement that stablecoins offer. Payments on traditional banking rails can take several days to arrive, or take even longer across international borders. Among the companies considering stablecoins are Walmart and Amazon, the Wall Street Journal reported in June. Walmart and Amazon did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, the new law will not immediately open the floodgates, experts said. The newfound opportunity to dabble in stablecoins can lead to numerous tricky considerations for firms, both strategic and technical. Companies have to embark on a lengthy process to deploy their own stablecoins, or decide whether it makes more sense to integrate existing stablecoins, like issuer Circle's USDC, into their business. Companies first have to decide the purpose of their stablecoins. For example, a retail platform could make a stablecoin available to customers to buy goods, which could appeal to crypto-savvy users. Some companies could use them internally for cross-border payments, given that stablecoins can enable near-instant payments, often with lower fees. How a company plans to use a stablecoin could affect whether it creates a stablecoin or works with a partner. "The intended use is going to matter a lot," said Stephen Aschettino, a partner at Steptoe. "Is this something really designed to drive customers to engage with the issuer, or is the issuer's primary motivation to have a stablecoin that is more ubiquitous?" For nonbanks, stablecoins will bring new compliance costs and oversight requirements, given that the GENIUS Act requires issuers to comply with anti-money laundering and "know your customer" (KYC) requirements. "Those that already have robust KYC risk management and regulatory change management programs or working towards implementing these program elements may have a competitive advantage," said Jill DeWitt, senior director of compliance and third-party risk management solutions at Moody's. One group likely to enjoy that advantage is banks, which are no strangers to screening for sanctions-related risks and verifying the identities of their customers. Bank of America and Citigroup are actively considering issuing their own stablecoins, the CEOs of both banks said in earnings calls last month. Others like Morgan Stanley are closely monitoring stablecoin developments. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank will be involved in stablecoins, without giving details. Banks need to weigh several factors before going live with stablecoins, including how holding the tokens might affect liquidity requirements, said Julia Demidova, head of digital currencies product and strategy at FIS. Banks holding assets like stablecoins on their balance sheets might be required to hold more capital under current U.S. bank rules. "The GENIUS Act is great, but if the bank is treating their stablecoin on the balance sheet under prudential banking regulation, you still need to look at the risk weight of the asset," she said. Another crucial question is how to issue stablecoins. Like other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are created on a blockchain, a digital ledger that records transactions. Hundreds of blockchain networks exist today, two of the most popular being ethereum and solana. Both are considered public or "permissionless" blockchains because all transactions on those networks are available for anyone to see. Still, it is unclear which attribute companies issuing stablecoins would prioritize. Banks, in particular, could opt for their own private, or "permissioned," blockchains instead, Demidova said. "The banks would desire and demand that very clear governance and structure," she said. "In that permissionless environment, you don't have the governance and controls in place." Others like said Nassim Eddequiouaq, CEO of Bastion, a provider of infrastructure for companies to issue their own stablecoins, see merits to permissionless blockchains. "We've seen a tremendous amount of interest for existing blockchains that have seen user adoption, that have been battle tested at scale, including during activity spikes," he said. Although the GENIUS Act has been signed into law, its effective date is potentially several years off, with federal banking regulators expected to issue rules in the meantime to fill in certain gaps. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, for instance, is expected to issue rules to outline several risk management and compliance requirements. Under the new U.S. framework, the Treasury Department will have to issue a rule on foreign stablecoin regulatory regimes and their compatibility with the new U.S. framework. "These things are going to have to phase in," said Aschettino.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Mood towards global economy remains sour
Fund managers are expecting inflation to rise over the next year as the mood towards the global economy coarsens. Over 40 per cent of fund managers believe the global economy is set to weaken over the next 12 months, with US economic policy and weaker consumer demand seen as the largest forces dragging it down, according to the latest Bank of America European fund manager survey. Just over a month ago, only 31 per cent thought the global economy would diminish, but Trump's sweeping and erratic tariffs policies, and their disruption to the global trade order, has caused sentiment to sour. Now, 58 per cent see the US administration's policies as having a negative impact on growth while also causing inflation to rise, up from 52 per cent last month, reflecting growing worries of 'stagflation', a troublesome economic situation in which high inflation and unemployment coupled with a stagnant economy stifles growth. Expectations for inflation to rise hit 18 per cent, its highest since May when the market was dealing with the fallout of Trump's announcement of tariffs. A trade war triggering a global recession remains the biggest risk for causing significant losses in the market for investors, but a growing number are also concerned stubborn inflation could thwart a slash to interest rates by the Federal Reserve in September. Hope in Europe While the attitude towards global markets worsen, 35 per cent of respondents are expecting to see stronger European growth over the coming year. Similarly, 23 per cent see scope for European inflation to decline over that period, showing hope for the market amid global turmoil. Many believe Germany's recent fiscal stimulus, which is anticipated to boost its stagnant economy, will be the main driver for the economy and remains the most popular among investors. Switzerland has become increasingly unpopular in the wake of Trump slapping the country with a 39 per cent tariff. Over 10 per cent believe the European Central Bank easing the Eurozone economy will be a leading factor in boosting European growth by lowering costs and injecting capital into banks. Be bullish While fund managers remain sceptical of European equities in the short term, believing tariff shocks are not yet over, many respondents are bullish for equities long term potential. Almost nine in ten respondents are optimistic in the long run for Europe equities, with financials expected to be the best performing sector, with insurance close behind. On the other hand, respondents believe auto and retail will ultimately under perform in the market. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
