China's 2019 fentanyl embargo led to drop in US overdoses, study finds
But new research indicates that cooperation between the two nations to crack down on the drug's trafficking can disrupt its supply chain and reduce overdose deaths.
A paper by the Peterson Institute for International Economics this month found that a 2019 embargo by China on the export of fentanyl and precursor chemicals caused a temporary spike in the drug's street price in the US, which deterred its use and reduced fentanyl-related overdose deaths by up to 25 per cent over a period of three to five months.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
Beijing imposed a strict drug control policy in May 2019, adding all fentanyl-related substances to its list of controlled substances, restricting their export.
'The Chinese embargo of fentanyl exports to the United States in May 2019 does appear to have affected prices,' the paper said, estimating that absent China's restrictions, as many as 947 more Americans would have died from a fentanyl overdose.
The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that nationwide deaths from fentanyl overdoses from May 1 to August 1 in 2019 was 2,254, rising to 3,807 by October 1, with the total death toll for the year estimated at 34,268.
Despite the drug's addictive nature, the study found, users responded to price changes: a price rise of 1 per cent was associated with a decrease of as much as 4 per cent in the monthly growth rate of fentanyl-related overdose deaths.
Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is the primary driver of US drug overdoses, an issue that Washington has blamed on China, where many of the drug's precursor ingredients are produced.
The US and China have engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations related to fentanyl since Trump's first administration.
Beijing's restrictions on fentanyl came after Trump, then in his first term, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2018 at the G20 summit in Argentina.
Peterson determined that a clear and immediate effect could be seen, with prices for the drug increasing in the US over a limited duration.
However, the research also indicated that as supply routes shifted into Mexico, the effect did not last.
In 2022, for example, after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, Beijing suspended all counternarcotics cooperation with Washington.
The report, though, found this breakdown had no significant effect on fentanyl supply or use, indicating that the drug's supply chain had already shifted to third-country smuggling.
After the break over Pelosi's trip, cooperation resumed in November 2023 following a meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in California.
A bilateral counternarcotics working group was formed in early 2024, but the study did not include its impact.
Fentanyl-related deaths in the US rose steadily for years, from an estimated 29,725 in 2018 to a high of 76,282 in 2023. Until 2023, CDC did not publish exact figures for fentanyl alone, instead tracking death rates involving 'synthetic opioids other than methadone'.
But the sharp upwards trend has begun to ease. According to CDC estimates, overdose deaths linked to fentanyl dropped to 48,422 in 2024.
Fentanyl has also been among the second Trump administration's primary issues with China.
In February, Trump imposed 20 per cent duties on Chinese imports – as well as 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports – in the name of stopping trafficking of fentanyl into the US.
Those China tariffs remain in effect despite the talks in Switzerland this month that led to significant cuts in other levies.
As fentanyl production has shifted to Mexico, the Peterson report concluded, Washington may need to expand its focus beyond Beijing, meaning that real progress in the fight against fentanyl will require coordinated international efforts – not only with China.
'Our analysis highlights the large potential benefits of international cooperation regarding drug enforcement,' it added.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said this month that the US had used fentanyl as 'a pretext' to impose tariffs on China 'without justification', and that China would maintain its retaliatory tariffs.
He also said in a separate briefing that the tariffs 'significantly undermine the dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States in the field of counter-narcotics'.
More from South China Morning Post:
For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Star
3 hours ago
- The Star
Roundup: News photography exhibition featuring China-Mexico exchanges kicks off in Mexico City
MEXICO CITY, July 20 (Xinhua) -- A news photo exhibition, co-organized by Xinhua News Agency and the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, kicked off here on Friday. The event, held in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies and attended by more than 100 guests from various sectors in Mexico, highlighted key moments in China-Mexico and China-Latin America exchanges, providing a panoramic view of the development of China-Latin America relations and the historical milestones in the process of Chinese modernization. In his speech, President of Xinhua News Agency Fu Hua said that since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Mexico over half a century ago, especially since the establishment of the comprehensive strategic partnership in 2013, political mutual trust between the two countries has deepened, and friendly exchanges in various fields have been strengthened. The tree of friendship between China and Mexico has flourished, bearing rich fruit and bringing tangible benefits to the people of both countries, he said. As the two countries move forward together, Xinhua News Agency and its Mexican branches have faithfully recorded touching stories of friendly exchanges and win-win cooperation between China and Mexico with pens and lenses, presenting to the world the profound friendship of the people of the two countries who understand each other and stand together through thick and thin, he added. Dolores Padierna, vice president of the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, said this exhibition, through the lenses of Xinhua journalists, showcases the rapid development of China's society and economy and the vitality of Chinese culture on the global stage. The images not only document the practice of the one-China principle, but also present the genuine interaction of mutual appreciation between the two major civilizations of Mexico and China, said Padierna. As an important witness and participant in the bilateral exchanges, Xinhua has played an active role in promoting cooperation and people-to-people bonds between the two countries, she added. Chen Daojiang, Chinese Ambassador to Mexico, said that the vastness of the Pacific Ocean has never hindered the communication between the people of China and Mexico. These photos are the witnesses of political mutual trust, the footnote of economic complementarity, the outcome of cultural integration, and above all, the most direct and touching expressions of people-to-people friendship, the ambassador noted. They are like mirrors, reflecting the historical development of the bilateral relations, Chen added. Lidia de la Vega, president of the Culture and Film Commission of the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, said Mexico and China have enjoyed longstanding friendship and adhered to mutual respect and open dialogue. The exhibition has built a "visual bridge" for the two countries, which will help deepen the understanding, cooperation and friendship between the two sides, she said. Raymundo Vazquez, president of the Mexico-China Friendship Group of the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, believes that the photographs record touching moments and life experiences in human history, which show vivid stories of the friendly exchanges between Mexico and China, and reflect the shared feelings and friendship of the human society.
The Star
5 hours ago
- The Star
Trump, Xi tipped to meet ahead of or during APEC summit in South Korea, SCMP reports
US President Donald Trump might visit China before going to the APEC summit between October 30 and November 1, or he could meet his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the APEC event in South Korea, the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday citing multiple sources. According to SCMP, Trump might visit China before going to the Apec summit between October 30 and November 1, or he could meet his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Apec event. According to South Korean media reports, Xi plans to attend the event in Gyeongju, but Trump's participation is yet to be confirmed. Earlier this month Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had their first face-to-face meeting – a potentially important step towards the two presidents meeting. Meanwhile, in a phone call last month, Xi invited Trump and his wife to visit China, an invitation the US president reciprocated. Rubio told reporters after meeting Wang that there was a 'strong desire on both sides' for a meeting between the two presidents. Analysts said a meeting in China before the Apec summit or on the sidelines was the most likely scenario, adding that Trump may visit Shanghai or another location rather than Beijing, to distinguish it from his 2017 visit to the Chinese capital. Diao Daming, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said: 'Under favourable conditions and an appropriate atmosphere, any form of interaction between the two leaders will aid in the stabilisation and development of US-China relations.' A meeting between Trump and Xi would be beneficial from China's point of view, according to Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, who cited her discussions with Chinese counterparts. 'They maintain that a leaders' meeting could create greater stability in the relationship,' Glaser said. 'It would also present an opportunity for Xi to press Trump to ease some restrictions on technology and reaffirm that the United States doesn't support Taiwan independence – and perhaps say that the US supports peaceful reunification.' Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory that must be reunited with mainland China, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise it as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to take the island by force and is legally bound to provide arms to help it defend itself. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy, said a direct leaders' meeting would be beneficial for breaking the impasse on issues such as fentanyl and tariffs. 'If certain issues can be clarified directly through a summit between the two leaders, I believe we could see relatively swift breakthroughs in specific areas of US-China relations, where leaders could effectively mobilise efforts at the working level.' Chen Qi, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua, said: 'Both sides are indeed working to create a conducive atmosphere for a meeting. Despite some fluctuations since June, there was a mutual effort to establish an improved atmosphere for a potential meeting' As long as the pair can achieve a certain degree of 'mutual cooperation', particularly on issues that Trump cares about such as trade and export controls, it would foster positive interactions, Chen added. Diplomatic observers agreed Trump wanted the meeting more than Xi, handing an advantage to Beijing. 'It's up to China. Trump would be on a plane to Beijing tomorrow if he could,' said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. 'China is very protocol driven and wants all agreements lined up well in advance while Trump would be happy to hash it all out over a Big Mac.' However, analysts warned that several factors could jeopardise a meeting, including Taiwan or the actions of the more hawkish elements in Washington. 'The summit will be well telegraphed in advance,' said Chan. 'But all it would take would be one slip up along the way to derail the whole thing.' Diao said that if the US insisted on containing China or 'interfering' over Taiwan, it would create obstacles to the leaders' meeting. Reports that Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te intends to transit in the US ahead of a trip to the island's Latin American allies have already prompted condemnation from Beijing. Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the prospects for a meeting were uncertain and Beijing would closely monitor how the US handles Lai's transit. 'If significant provocative incidents occur during Lai's transit, or if Washington extends an overly high-profile reception, it could erode the goodwill and trust that have been painstakingly built up to this point.' But Chen predicted that Trump would not play the Taiwan card during the summit preparations. Analysts said the summit was likely to have a visible lead-up if it was on track, citing the meeting between Rubio and Wang as a possible first step and Trump's decision to allow Nvidia to sell AI chips to China. They said there may be other signs of progress – such as meetings on fentanyl, US export controls and rare earths – as well as a possible further meeting between Rubio and Wang. Chan of Eurasia Group said Beijing was likely to keep the sanctions it imposed on Rubio as a senator over his comments on human rights, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Taiwan, to keep some leverage and avoid the impression it was bowing to Washington. But if he were to visit China, a 'suspension' or some other face-saving arrangement would probably be worked out. Details for the story are from reports by SCMP and Reuters
New Straits Times
5 hours ago
- New Straits Times
BRICS defies Western scepticism, charts reformist path
As BRICS (and now BRICS+) matures into a serious platform for South-South cooperation, Western outlets have doubled down on trivialising its substance to neutralise its appeal. The "division and dysfunction" refrain was predictably trotted out in commentaries about the recent 17th BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Chinese President Xi Jinping's absence, his first since taking office in 2012, was swiftly weaponised. The Guardian called BRICS "unbalanced". CNBC suggested that it lacked cohesion. Al Jazeera framed it as "dispersion". Yet few noted that Premier Li Qiang, China's second-in-command, attended in Xi's place (not a foreign minister, but China's top economic policymaker). Far from symbolic, this signalled sustained high-level commitment. Also overlooked: Indonesia joined BRICS as a full member. Not only is it a major Southeast Asian economy, it is also a G20 member. Hardly a lightweight. This undercuts the narrative of weakening cohesion but raises uncomfortable questions about the cohesion of the West's own institutions. Missing, too, is the fact that BRICS operates by consensus, not coercion. Meanwhile, the economic scaremongering felt equally familiar. United States President Donald Trump's revived tariff threats were deployed to overshadow the BRICS summit, suggesting peril for any country engaging seriously with the bloc. The bloc is provoking the global North, we are told. Never mind that many BRICS members maintain close ties with the West, and that the group's own declarations call for reform within global institutions, not withdrawal from them. Nevertheless, the fundamental truth missed entirely is that BRICS economies are productive economies. They manufacture semiconductors, refine oil, export food and mine rare earths. Their growth is grounded in material reality. By contrast, much of the West's economic weight rests on inflated valuations and speculative finance. A tech stock may be worth billions one week and could collapse the next. The same distortive lens is applied to BRICS declarations. Dismissed as vague or aspirational, these statements are rarely read in full. The 2025 declaration proposed the incubation of a multilateral guarantee mechanism and advanced work on digital settlement interoperability. These are not rhetorical flourishes; they are structural shifts. Even Brazil's sustainability initiative was framed as "vague" and dependent on Northern financing. The implication is clear: the Global South cannot innovate without strings and certainly not without permission. This logic reaches its peak by casting the Global South as perpetually poor, passive or behind. The fact that the BRICS summit hosted over 10 partner countries, including Malaysia, Nigeria and Vietnam, each with distinct development strategies and aspirations, is ignored. That these countries are asserting plural models of cooperation is seen not as maturity, but as risk. Rather than meet this shift with clarity, Western commentary doubles down on old tropes, such as the claim that BRICS is anti-Western. It simply does not hold. The group's foundational ethos is reformist, not revisionist. It seeks a more equitable order — one where sovereignty is respected, trade is not weaponised and conditionalities do not dictate policy. It is not a rival bloc, but a parallel platform complementary to global efforts and anchored in international law. This accusation of politicisation is deeply ironic. BRICS is not held together by ideology or enforced alignment. Its members have different political systems, regional interests and diplomatic postures but have chosen to cooperate. That is not political bloc behaviour but rather pragmatic pluralism. Malaysia's participation in the summit itself offers a striking counterpoint to the Western narrative. Notably, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was the only foreign leader invited to deliver a keynote at the BRICS Business Forum. More than symbolic, his presence sparked a cascade of bilateral engagements — many requested by other nations. Anwar positioned Malaysia as a bridge between East and West, showcasing the bloc's appeal as a platform for pragmatic diplomacy, not polarised alignment. In truth, BRICS is doing what the West once claimed to champion: empowering developing nations to co-shape the rules of global engagement. Its institutional growth is real, from think tank networks to cross-border infrastructure platforms. Its financial architecture is maturing. The West's critique of BRICS says less about BRICS itself, and more about its own anxiety over declining influence. The writer is the founder of think tank EMIR Research
