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Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
2025-26 NFL betting, odds: 3 betting trends to know for every AFC team
The best team against the spread last season. The most bettor-friendly starting quarterback in the NFL. And the team that has recorded just one season-opening victory in the last 14 years. They all reside in the AFC. So, too, does the franchise that has captured nine consecutive division titles — and another that is mired in the longest postseason dry spell in pro sports. These are among the 48 NFL betting trend nuggets — three for each AFC team — Yahoo Sports unearthed to help put you on the path to profitability for the 2025 season. Shout out to the Sports Odds History database for helping with research on many of them. Team win-total trends, playoff history details, Week 1 point-spread and over/under streaks — all of it (and more) is covered in the following comprehensive report. Happy wagering! AFC East Buffalo Bills • Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite or co-favorite at multiple North American sportsbooks, with consensus odds ranging from +600 to +700. It's the second time since 2022 — but just the third time since 1992 — the Bills will begin a season atop the Super Bowl futures board. • The Bills enter the 2025 campaign with the NFL's highest projected win total of 12.5 at several sportsbooks. Buffalo has topped its win total in seven of the last eight years, including the last three in a row. However, going back to 1989, the Bills have never exceeded their preseason victory projection in four consecutive seasons. Last time the franchise won 12 or more games in back-to-back years: 1990-91. • Buffalo has won a franchise-record five consecutive AFC East titles and is a massive favorite (-325 at BetMGM) to make it six straight in 2025. Good news for Bills fans: The preseason favorite has won 20 of the last 21 AFC East titles, including 16 in a row. Miami Dolphins • Miami's consensus win total is 7.5. The Dolphins have cleared seven victories each of the last five seasons. • Going back to Week 4 of the 2023 campaign, the Dolphins are 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS as an underdog. Miami is a consensus 1.5-point underdog in Week 1 at Indianapolis. • Since 2007, Miami has opened the season on the road 11 times. The under cashed in 10 in those contests. Consensus total in Week 1 at Indy: 46.5. New England Patriots • New England has failed to beat its win total each of the last three years. Dating back to 1989, the Patriots have never stayed under their win total in four consecutive seasons. Consensus over/under for New England in 2025: 8.5 wins. • The Patriots open the 2025 campaign as a consensus 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. New England has lost four straight games as chalk (all in 2023) and hasn't won a game as a favorite of a field goal or more since Week 11 of the 2022 season. • New England is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in its last nine games against the Dolphins. The Pats travel to South Florida in Week 2, then host Miami in the regular-season finale. New York Jets • The Jets begin the season with the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports, having not made the postseason since 2010. The chance that streak ends in 2025? Not great. New York's odds to make the playoffs range from +425 to +520. • New York has exceeded its win-total projection just once in the last seven years. What's more, Gang Green has hurdled its 2025 consensus win total of 5.5 just four times since 2014 (11 seasons). • Dating to the start of the 2016 season, the Jets are 11-25 SU and 14-21-1 ATS against AFC East opponents — including 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS against Miami and New England. AFC North Baltimore Ravens • Baltimore's preseason Super Bowl price, which ranges from +600 to +700, is the second shortest in franchise history. (The 2020 squad entered the season as the +500 second choice to win it all.) • The Ravens are coming off back-to-back AFC North titles and are odds-on favorites to win a third straight division crown for the first time since the team was founded in 1996. • Lamar Jackson's regular-season record as Baltimore's starting quarterback: 70-24 SU and 52-40-2 ATS. Jackson's postseason record: 3-5 SU and ATS. On the bright side, the two-time MVP has covered the spread in 12 of 15 games as an underdog in his career. Cincinnati Bengals • Cincinnati, which is projected for 9.5 victories this season, has failed to top its win total in six of the last eight seasons. • Among active quarterbacks who have started at least 20 games, none has a better point-spread winning percentage than the Bengals' Joe Burrow. He's 46-29-1 ATS (61.3%). • Cincinnati is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against the Browns. However, one of the outliers was a 24-3 defeat at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite in the 2023 opener — one of three consecutive Week 1 losses the Bengals have suffered, all as a favorite. Cincinnati kicks off the 2025 campaign as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Browns. Cleveland Browns • Cleveland tied the New York Giants for the NFL's second-worst point-spread record in 2024 at 4-13. That dismal mark was punctuated by a season-ending six-game SU and ATS losing streak. • The Browns finished 2-6 SU and ATS at home last year after going 11-2 SU and ATS at home from mid-2022 through 2023. • Cleveland, which has a consensus win total of 5.5 in 2025, has fallen short of expectations 13 times in the last 17 years. However, prior to last season's 3-14 debacle, the Browns had cleared 5.5 victories six years in a row. Pittsburgh Steelers • Pittsburgh has gone 21 consecutive seasons without posting a losing record. During this stretch, the six-time Super Bowl champs have cleared their win-total projection 15 times, including each of the last five years. • Since 2006, the Steelers are 27-10 SU and 26-11 ATS against division-rival Cincinnati, including 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS at home. • The under is 8-1 in the last nine Steelers-Ravens meetings (5-0 in Pittsburgh). AFC South Houston Texans • Since 2006, the Texans are 13-5-1 to the over on their preseason win total. • Houston is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons, the third time in history the franchise has recorded double-digit victories in consecutive campaigns. The Texans have never won 10 or more games in three successive seasons. This year's win-total projection: 9.5. • The Texans are 12-5-1 SU and 12-6 ATS against AFC South rivals since the start of the 2021 season. Indianapolis Colts • Indianapolis is a short home favorite against Miami in Week 1. Noteworthy, because since 2010, the Colts are 1-13-1 SU and 2-12-1 ATS in season openers — including 1-5 SU and ATS at home, and 1-4-1 SU and 0-6 ATS as a favorite. Last time Indy posted a Week 1 victory: 2013. • The Colts have failed to make the playoffs eight times in the last 10 years, including each of the last four. They haven't had a postseason drought of at least five seasons since 1988-94. Indy's odds to reach the playoffs in 2025: +170 to +210. • Indianapolis won the AFC South nine times in 12 seasons from 2003-14, but has since gone a full decade without capturing a division crown. This year, the Colts are the third choice on the AFC South futures board, with odds ranging from +300 to +375. Jacksonville Jaguars • Jacksonville cleared its win-total projection in each of the franchise's first five seasons (1995-99). In 25 years since, the Jaguars have fallen short of their win total 19 times, including 14 of the past 17 seasons. • The Jags have made the playoffs just twice since 2008 (15 seasons). Their odds to qualify for the 2025 postseason range from +165 to +180. • Since the start of 2015, Jacksonville is 16-3-1 ATS against division rival Indianapolis (9-1 ATS at home). This year, the Jaguars and Colts square off in Week 14 (at Jacksonville) and Week 17 (at Indianapolis). Tennessee Titans • No team burned bettors more last season than the Tennessee Titans, who were an NFL-worst 2-15 ATS (0-8 ATS at home). Going back to Week 12 of the 2022 season, Tennessee is 10-28-1 ATS (5-14-1 ATS at home). • The Titans have stayed under their win total for three straight seasons, the first time that's happened since the franchise relocated from Houston to Tennessee in 1997. In its first 25 seasons (1997-2021), Tennessee went 15-8-2 to the over. • The under has cashed in all five of the Titans' Week 1 games this decade. In four of those contests, Tennessee and its opponent combined for 41 points or fewer. Consensus total in the 2025 season opener at Denver: 41.5. AFC West Denver Broncos • Denver went 10-7 last year, easily clearing its preseason win total of 5.5 to halt a 7-0-1 under streak. Prior to that, the Broncos had been on a 10-3 over roll in regard to their win totals (2003-15). This year, Denver is projected for 9.5 wins. • In posting their first winning record in eight years, the 2024 Broncos also returned to the postseason for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015. They begin 2025 as a slight favorite (-118 to -140) to make back-to-back playoff appearances. • Denver's season-opening game at Seattle last year barely went over the total, snapping a 5-0 Week 1 under streak. Kansas City Chiefs • Kansas City has won nine consecutive division titles, which is two shy of the NFL record New England established from 2009-19. It's no surprise the Chiefs are odds-on favorites to claim the AFC West again in 2025, with a price ranging from -105 to -120. • The Chiefs have recorded double-digit victories in 10 consecutive years. They also have cleared their win total 10 times in the last 12 seasons. • Since taking over as Kansas City's starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes is 34-5 against AFC West opponents — but just 17-20-2 ATS. Conversely, Mahomes has delivered for bettors on the rare occasion when he's been an underdog, going 11-2-1 ATS in his career (7-2-1 regular season; 4-0 in playoffs). Las Vegas Raiders • Las Vegas enters 2025 with a win-total projection of 6.5. Despite last year's dreadful 4-13 finish, the franchise has actually registered at least seven victories in six of the last 10 seasons. • In 22 years since losing Super Bowl XXXVII in January 2003, the Raiders have made the playoffs just twice (2016 and 2021). So of course they're a long shot to make a rare postseason appearance this year, with odds ranging from +300 to +330. • In three full seasons running Seattle's offense, new Raiders quarterback Geno Smith went 27-22 SU but just 19-28-2 ATS (5-14-2 ATS as a favorite). Los Angeles Chargers • The Chargers had stayed under their win total in five straight seasons before last year's 11-6 turnaround under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. Also, their 12-4-1 ATS mark was tops in the NFL in 2024. • Los Angeles has won five of its last six season openers, going 4-1-1 ATS. The Bolts kick off the 2025 campaign as a consensus 2.5-point underdog against Kansas City in Brazil. • The Chargers are 3-19 against the Chiefs dating back to the start of the 2014 season, including an ongoing seven-game losing skid. Four of those seven defeats were by three points or fewer, while another was in overtime.
Yahoo
10 minutes ago
- Yahoo
It's time to talk Atlanta Dream as WNBA contenders
It's time to talk about the Atlanta Dream as WNBA title contenders. The Dream could end the season with a championship. That's not a typo or a dramatic statement. In his first year as a WNBA head coach, Karl Smesko's team has already eclipsed last season's win total (15) and is currently on a six-game win streak, the longest in the WNBA as of the publishing of this story. The Dream, at 21-11, have pushed past the reigning champions, the New York Liberty, to claim the second overall spot in league standings after going 8-2 in their last 10 games. That's really impressive considering Atlanta's starting lineup has dealt with injuries to three different players and has only played 113 minutes together this season. What's more, the Dream have 11 road wins this season is tied for first in the league with the Minnesota Lynx, surpassing the seven road victories they had in 2024. Frankly, not enough people are talking about Atlanta's chances at winning the whole thing. This has gone from a dream ― pun fully intended ― to a reality. When you take a peek at what's happening in Atlanta, it all starts to make sense. Multiple players are in consideration for league honors, and there aren't very many teams in the league that can say that. Guard Allisha Gray, who is averaging career highs in three categories and has 14 games of 20 or more points in 2025, is shooting a blistering 40 percent from three-point range and has already taken home three Eastern Conference Player of the Week awards. Atlanta is also 12-2 when Gray scores 20 or more points. Those are MVP-caliber Naz Hillmon can't be overlooked either. She is also averaging career highs in multiple areas and has a case for Sixth Player of the Year and even Most Improved Player (MIP). Hillmon had one made 3-pointer in her career before 2025 ― yes, one basket on just six attempts ― and she's already made 39 shots from beyond the arc. Perhaps what makes Hillmon's case so special is that she also does all the little things that don't often jump out on the stat sheet: forcing a jump ball or a turnover, critical rebounds or lockdown defense. What Smesko is doing in Atlanta as a rookie head coach, who spent over two decades in the college ranks, is worthy of Coach of the Year honors. Not only did the Dream have three All-Stars this season (Gray, guard Rhyne Howard and forward Bri Jones), but they currently sit top five or better in six different WNBA team categories, including points per game, assists per game and three-point percentage. Atlanta is also second in offensive rating (107.2) and third in defensive rating (99.6). For comparison, the team was last in offensive rating in 2024 (96.6) and sixth in defensive rating (100.1). If you haven't been paying attention to Atlanta, now is the time. It might be dream season. This article originally appeared on For The Win: Atlanta Dream, WNBA contenders? Why it's possible
New York Times
11 minutes ago
- New York Times
Vancouver introduces Thomas Müller: Record sales, goat noises and a will to win
Former German international and Bayern Munich attacking star Thomas Müller was officially unveiled as the Vancouver Whitecaps' star signing on Thursday. A day after being welcomed by spirited fans at the airport, the 35-year-old World Cup winner held court in his new city for nearly an hour as he expressed his joy in joining the MLS side in true Müller fashion. Advertisement At the start of the press conference, Müller was presented with an eagle feather and a woven headband by Wilson Williams, a community leader of Vancouver's Squamish Nation. The eagle, Williams said, is a special spirit bird for 'our people and our families.' 'Fly high, bring that here. We've been waiting,' Williams told Müller. Vancouver sporting director Axel Schuster said that Thursday was 'the greatest day since I joined the club. This is the day where we welcome Thomas Müller.' The outgoing German then shouted unprompted 'Hello, Vancouver!' to kick off what club officials are calling a new era for the club. Schuster revealed that Müller's signing led to record sales for Whitecaps jerseys, unprecedented social media engagement and 'a spike' in regular-season ticket sales. 'It's all great and it's wonderful for everyone at this club,' Schuster said. 'And we deserve it. The team deserves the attention we're getting. We're performing at a very high level.' Whitecaps head coach Jesper Sørensen said that Müller's arrival symbolizes what the club is becoming. Müller is officially in blue and white. 🤩#VWFC x #TM13 — Vancouver Whitecaps FC (@WhitecapsFC) August 14, 2025 'For us it's extraordinary to have a player like Thomas,' said Sørensen. 'That sounds good,' Müller said with a laugh. Sørensen would not confirm when Müller could make his MLS debut. 'We'll have to figure that out in the next couple of days,' he said. It thus appears unlikely that the German will feature this Sunday when Vancouver hosts the Houston Dynamo at BC Place. But Müller said that the stadium's turf shouldn't be a problem. 'My knees are like the knees of a 15-year-old, the doctor said,' Müller boasted with a smile. 'So the knees are not a problem. I don't think I'll have a problem adapting. And normally on turf it's good for passing. You can pass it quickly. Advertisement 'I want to be on the pitch as soon as possible,' he continued. 'I heard this is the best city in the world. I believe you. But I'm here to play soccer. I'm used to playing football. Now I'm here to play soccer. I don't know how many days I'll need. But I'm fit and I want to go full.' Müller then looked at Schuster and said 'you wish the same' as Müller's classic banter continued. Sorensen retorted with 'We certainly hope so, Thomas.' 'Maybe when we talk in two weeks you'll have a different opinion,' Müller joked. When a reporter rattled off Müller's career accomplishments, Müller responded, 'Those numbers are really impressive.' Asked how he'll adapt to MLS play and the talent around him, Müller highlighted Vancouver's 'active' approach to football as something that he can relate to. 'To have your foot on the gas and to control the game. When I talked to Jesper, we were aligned and we think very similar about the game,' Müller said. He then described himself as open-minded and humble. Seconds later, he imitated a young goat's bleat, followed by a precise rendition of an older goat's snort. Any awkward ice that needed to be broken was shattered at that moment as the room burst with laughter. The Whitecaps' newest addition, Thomas Muller showing off his other skills.#VWFC — Isabella Zavarise (@izavarise) August 14, 2025 And like Lionel Messi, who signed with Inter Miami a year after winning the World Cup with Argentina, Müller was asked what motivates him to keep playing after winning the most important titles that the sport can offer. 'It's not about winning titles in the past,' he said. 'It's about winning titles in the future. That's what motivates me. And it's about the competition. Your own competition against yourself and against your teammates to earn your spot. I was always a competitive guy. My love is to play soccer and my body feels, even at this stage of my career, too good to retire.' Müller is joining a team that was runner-up in the Concacaf Champions Cup, is four points off the pace atop the Western Conference and sits six points out of first for the Supporters' Shield (with a game in hand). He said that conversations with former Germany captain and Chicago Fire star Bastian Schweinsteiger, LA Galaxy forward Marco Reus, former Whitecaps defender Florian Jungwirth and current New York Red Bulls striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting – all countrymen or former teammates – were important, but his decision to come to MLS is 'about my story.' Former Whitecap prodigy Alphonso Davies, who played six seasons with Müller at Bayern, also gave his blessing, particularly about the city of Vancouver. Advertisement 'It's very interesting to be in this league with the (2026) World Cup coming,' he said. 'Vancouver is a host city so maybe the world is watching Vancouver more as a football city. I want to play my part to grow it a little bit. But I'm not here to grow it. I'm here to perform. Through our performances we will help it grow. That's my approach.' At 35, Müller's signing is a throwback to the MLS of old. And yet, players like the German, whose time in elite football has come to end, are still valuable assets for the league and for clubs like Vancouver. Messi's influence has played a part too. LAFC's new signing Son Heung-min told ESPN last week that 'Messi changed my mind' after seeing the Argentine continue to perform at a high level for both club and country. Now, all eyes will be on Müller and what he's capable of giving Vancouver. 'What can we get from Thomas that we need? We can get a lot I think,' Sørensen said. 'Experience is one thing but the quality of play, the football IQ, the way we play it's quite similar to how Thomas played before. We also need the toughness in situations where we need to get over a small hump. The players have done unbelievably this season but this should help us. It's a great signing for us.' Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
