Is The Truth Behind The 16 Billion Passwords Leak Finally Revealed?
When I reported on the leak of approximately 16 billion credentials, including passwords, that involved prominent names in the consumer tech sector, such as Apple, Facebook, and Google, I knew it was a significant story. Still, I never expected it to go viral in the way that it did. That article currently has more than 2 million views from all around the world. As I said from the get-go, the findings, from CyberNews researchers, concerned a leak, or more accurately leaks, rather than a breach of any centralized database.
This didn't stop others from reporting the latter, and the story blew up out of all proportion. In an attempt to keep on top of the situation, I updated the original article as soon as new information was forthcoming, including the fact that numerous cybersecurity professionals had contested the claim that the data was new, rather than a compilation or aggregation of already leaked, compromised old credential datasets.
Now, Group‑IB's Threat Intelligence & Attribution team has exclusively shared with me the results of an in-depth analysis of samples claiming to contain 16 billion compromised credentials, and this is what it revealed.
The 16 Billion Passwords Leak Analyzed
Semyon Botalov, a cyber intelligence analyst with Group‑IB's Threat Intelligence & Attribution team, has exclusively shared the results of an in-depth analysis of samples from what it says are the leaked datasets, with me through email conversations.
Botalov said Group-IB obtained samples from a repository described as containing 16 billion compromised Apple, Google, and Facebook credentials, and was part of the team that undertook a comprehensive review to verify data provenance, freshness, and potential impact of the information contained within.
The investigation began by gathering every accessible sample and filename mentioned in publicly shared screenshots and chat logs, Botalov told me, and then matching these partially redacted credentials against the Group-IB stealer log archive, totalling 17 billion records in all, that stretches from 2020 to 2025. This was achieved through the use of hashed and fuzzy-matching techniques.
The first-seen timestamp for each credential pair was established, in order to pinpoint the earliest potential compromise date, and then cross-referenced with the folder names and directory structures of already known of public combolists and Telegram dumps. Finally, dark-web listings were sought that purported to be selling, or otherwise distributing, the 16 billion passwords dataset.
The analysis has confirmed, Botalov said, that the dataset is 'an aggregation of historic stealer‑log data rather than a freshly sourced mega‑breach,' which confirms the thoughts of many security professionals.
Key Findings Of The 16 Billion Passwords Leak Analysis
The bullet point list of findings from Botalov and the other Group-IB analysts, was as follows:
The latest updated CyberNews report, dated June 26, states that 'the data that most likely comes from various infostealers is recent, not merely recycled from old breaches,' while conceding that the 16 billion records count 'includes duplicates, as is common in these types of compilations.'
I have approached both CyberNews, and the researcher behind the original leak findings, for a statement regarding the new analysis from Group-IB and Semyon Botalov.
As I have said before, while you may not want to change all your account passwords as a result of this leak, new or old, I would certainly recommend it for those credentials that you have reused across multiple services.
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