Oil prices climb to 2-month high on Middle East supply risks, US-China trade deal
NEW YORK: Oil prices rose more than 3 per cent on Wednesday, to their highest in more than two months, after reports the United States is preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy due to heightened security concerns in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose US$2.29, or 3.42 per cent, to US$69.16 a barrel at 2:13 p.m. EDT (1813 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up US$2.52, or 3.88 per cent, to US$67.50. Both Brent and WTI reached their highest in more than two months. The United States was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy due to heightened security risks in the region, sources said on Wednesday while a U.S. official said military dependents could also leave Bahrain.
"The market wasn't expected this big geopolitical risk," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. Iraq is the second-biggest OPEC producer behind Saudi Arabia. Iran's Minister of Defense Aziz Nasirzadeh said earlier in the day that Tehran will strike U.S. bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and conflict arises with Washington. Trump said he was less confident that Iran would agree to stop uranium enrichment in a nuclear deal with Washington, according to an interview released on Wednesday.
Ongoing tension with Iran means its oil supplies are likely to remain curtailed by sanctions. Supplies will still increase, as OPEC+ plans to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as it looks to unwind production cuts for a fourth straight month.
"Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices," said Capital Economics' analyst Hamad Hussain in a note. Also keeping prices elevated, Trump said Beijing would supply magnets and rare earth minerals and the U.S. will allow Chinese students in its colleges and universities. Trump added the deal is subject to final approval by him and President Xi Jinping.
The trade-related downside risk in oil has been temporarily removed, although the market reaction has been tepid as it is not clear how economic growth and global oil demand will be affected, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.
In the U.S., crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a draw of 2 million barrels.
"It's a bullish report," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, adding that the demand for motor gasoline began to strengthen.
Product supplied for motor gasoline, a proxy for demand, rose by about 907,000 barrels per day last week, to 9.17 million bpd. U.S. consumer prices increased only marginally in May, deepening the conviction in financial markets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by September. Lower interest rates can spur economic growth and demand for oil.
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