Will UK-France ‘one in, one out' deal solve migration dilemma?

Arab News

4 hours ago

https://arab.news/89dhs
Forget the rebranding of the UK-France 'entente cordial' as the 'entente amicale,' as expressed by King Charles when he toasted the relations between the old neighbors when he received Emmanuel Macron during last week's first state visit for a French president since 2008. Forget also the joint nuclear deterrent agreement reached between London and Paris.
Forget Macron's mantra of standing together to 'save' European democracy. Forget the need to unhook Europe's excessive dependencies 'on both the US and China.' Forget the need to save a democratic model that is under threat from 'foreign interference, information manipulation, domination of minds by negative emotions and addictions to social media,' as Macron told Parliament. Forget the commitment to save and defend Ukraine, used repeatedly by British and French leaders at every official meeting. Lastly, forget the commitment to finding a solution to the Gaza conflict or a means to lessen the humanitarian blockade starving the Palestinians, as well as the threat to unilaterally recognize Palestine.
Forget all these important issues that were evoked during Macron's three-day state visit. Instead, most of the attention focused on the vexing issue of cross-Channel migration, which has become a major headache for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's one-year-old Labour government — just like it has been for all prime ministers, without exception, since the mid-1990s. But it is becoming increasingly problematic because the failure to manage UK migration policy has become the ladder climbed by right-wing populist parties like Reform UK.
The 'one in, one out' policy that London and Paris last week unveiled as a pilot program — meaning some of the migrants arriving in the UK on small boats will be returned to France — may not be the silver bullet needed to save Starmer's premiership. Though Starmer described the deal as 'groundbreaking' and capable of stemming the record numbers of people who have embarked on the perilous journey so far this year, it will need time to prove its effectiveness.
The failure to manage UK migration policy has become the ladder climbed by right-wing populist parties
Mohamed Chebaro
Starmer hopes that the deportation of those who cross the English Channel from France will break the model that has been used for the past few years. And he hopes that it will signal to migrants that, if they cross in a small boat, they will ultimately end up back where they started. In exchange for every return, a different individual will be allowed to come to the UK in a legal and safe manner, as part of a scheme for reuniting families or for those who already have a link with the country.
The pilot program is understood to start with 50 returns a week and is likely to be ready to commence in the coming weeks.
More than 21,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in rudimentary vessels so far this year, 55 percent more than in the same period last year. While the new measures are yet to be tested, some other new powers recently demonstrated by French police could yield different results. Police officers were seen slashing the small rubber boats with knives as they tried to pick up migrants in shallow waters. This dangerous new practice is yet to be contested in court by human right defenders, while it might also not be easy to apply along the entire coastline.
Data gathered from both the British and French sides is alarming. Just since May 2024, when the Home Office began publishing this data, the French authorities have prevented more than 33,000 migrants from crossing the Channel to the UK. This includes 21,317 individuals who were prevented from crossing in May to December last year and 12,321 so far in 2025.
France has also engaged in 1,158 'events' in that same period, referring to small boats not being allowed to leave or the arrest of smugglers. That means only about four out of every 10 migrants are being stopped from crossing — a figure that Starmer will want to see rise, as he is under pressure from those using migration failures to turn public opinion against the government. At the same time, they are sowing discontent in some communities that could lead to violent acts, threatening the peace and civil cohesion.
The truth came in a statement made by Macron, as he blamed Brexit for the sharp increase in migrant arrivals
Mohamed Chebaro
The truth that neither the government nor the people of the UK wanted to hear came in a statement made by Macron during his visit, when he blamed Brexit for the sharp increase in migrant arrivals. He claimed that Britain's 2020 departure from the EU had worsened the situation in the Channel, cutting off legal migration routes and London's access to the bloc's returns agreements. It appears that those who so hastily engineered and enforced Brexit did not consider the legal parameters that needed to be in place to send people back. That void has become the pull factor and, as a result, the bitter truth is that leaving the EU has had the opposite effect on migration to what the Brexiteers promised.
However, Brexit may not be solely to blame, as other factors have left the immigration processing system exposed, such as the policy of austerity during the 14 years of Conservative government up to last July and the slow and ineffective visa schemes that brought much-needed workers to the country. Many of those workers ended up playing the system and becoming a burden on the welfare state, which was already suffering after years of underinvestment.
Last week's UK-France summit yielded a lot in terms of upgrading the cooperation between these two neighbors and strategic allies. But its success or failure hinges entirely on the ability of both countries to curb cross-Channel migration, the rise of which was a clear result of Brexit. The one in, one out plan looks good on paper, but its implementation relies on many variables that neither Macron nor Starmer control.
It is worth mentioning that, when accounting for population, the UK receives fewer asylum applications than France and the EU average. The French Interior Ministry recorded 157,947 asylum applications in 2024, compared to 108,138 applicants in the UK. Across the EU, there were just under a million applications for the same period. The UK will have to prepare to receive some of these if its new deal with France is going to work.